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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Hong Kong Consumer Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Industry Macau Date 17 September 2012 Industry Update Focus on premium mass - Top picks Galaxy risks On back of slower China recovery, we lower 2013 Macau gaming revenue growth from 16% to 11% (VIP 5%; mass 24%). We tri
2、m 2013-14 EBITDA for the companies by 5-12%, except for Galaxy and MPEL. Despite our earnings cut, we raise TPs for all six operators by 4-31% as we roll forward to 2013. Our top picks Galaxy and Melco Crown offer the biggest upside potentials (29% ? High-limit massHigh-limit mass: min bet HK$1,000-
3、1,500; 17 September 2012 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Macau Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 ? Middle massMiddle mass: min bet HK$300-800; ? Grind massGrind mass: min bet HK$200 or below. Figure 4 shows the distribution of mass market tables in the Big 7 casinos by their min bet limits. Key observatio
4、ns include: ? City of DreamsCity of Dreams has the highest exposure to premium masspremium mass (53%); ? Galaxy MacauGalaxy Macau has the second highest exposure to premium masspremium mass (36%); ? Sands Cotai CentralSands Cotai Central currently has the lowest % of tables at HK$2,000 min (8%); ? G
5、rand LisboaGrand Lisboa has the highest exposure to grind massgrind mass (8%); ? Venetian MacausVenetian Macaus strength is in the middle massmiddle mass (HK$300-800 min bet); ? MGM ? MPEL Delays in Cotai project timeline; ? MGM China Lower than expected dividend payout; ? Sands China Slower than ex
6、pected ramp up at Sands Cotai Central; ? SJM Chairmans health and impact on family control; ? Wynn Macau Faster market share loss and lower than expected dividend. 17 September 2012 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Macau Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Company valuation charts Figure 17: Galaxy EV/ EBITD
7、A vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) Figure 18: Melco Crown EV/ EBITDA vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 01/08 07/0801/09 07/0901/10 07/1001/11 07/1101/12 07/12 GalaxySector average +1 Std Div Avg 11.8x -1Std Div - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 01/0807/0801/0907/0901/1
8、007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 Melco CrownSector average +1 Std Div Avg 9.9x -1Std Div Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES consensus, DataStream Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES consensus, DataStream Figure 19: MGM China EV/ EBITDA vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) Figure 20: Sands China EV/ EBITDA vs. se
9、ctor (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 07/1101/1207/12 MGM ChinaSector average +1 Std Div -1 Std Div Avg 8.4x - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 01/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 Sands ChinaSector average Avg 13.7x +1 Std Div -1 Std Div Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES consensus, DataStream Source: D
10、eutsche Bank, EV/ EBITDA vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) Figure 21: SJM EV/ EBITDA vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) Figure 22: Wynn Macau EV/ EBITDA vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus EBITDA) (x) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 07/0901/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 SJMSector average +1 Std
11、 Div Avg 8.5x -1 Std Div - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 01/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 Wynn MacauSector average +1 Std Div Avg 13.4x -1 Std Div Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES consensus, DataStream Source: Deutsche Bank, IBES consensus, DataStream 17 September 2012 Hotels / Leisure / Gaming Macau Deutsche Bank AG
12、/Hong Kong Page 9 Figure 23: Earnings forecast summary for Macau gaming stocks US$mGalaxyMelco Crown MGM China Sands China SJM Wynn Macau US$mGalaxyMelco Crown MGM China Sands China SJM Wynn Macau IndustryGalaxyMelco Crown MGM China Sands China SJM Wynn Macau GalaxyMelco Crown MGM China Sands China
13、SJM Wynn Macau Industry Market share20%13%10%19%26%12%100%19%13%10%22%25%11%100% yoy+4ppt-2ppt-1ppt+3ppt-3ppt-2ppt-1ppt0ppt0ppt+3ppt-1ppt-1ppt V Volume measuresolume measures VIP rolling 191,240 119,492 88,842 137,157 226,112122,385885,228199,223132,55898,837 158,002 226,531 115,849931,001 Mass drop
14、 4,634 4,099 2,461 9,482 14,346 2,846 37,867 6,428 4,826 2,964 13,266 15,993 3,208 46,685 Slot handle 2,741 5,865 4,897 10,218 3,940 5,160 32,821 3,092 7,206 5,856 13,942 4,302 5,755 40,153 Direct VIP (% of VIP rolling)0%10%8%18%0%9%6%1%9%9%17%0%7%6% yoyyoy VIP rolling yoy30%-8%-2%34%-4%-1%7%4%11%11
15、%15%0%-5%5% Mass drop yoy65%16%12%28%15%2%21%39%18%20%40%11%13%23% Slot handle yoy50%23%34%58%5%-5%27%13%23%20%36%9%12%22% CapacityCapacity Avg no of tables854 629 426 1,315 1,760 492 5,477 854 631 426 1,536 1,770 492 5,710 Avg no of slots1,441 3,478 1,250 4,531 3,947 936 15,583 1,455 3,548 1,252 5,
16、754 3,947 939 16,895 Hotel rooms2,709 1,616 587 5,687 431 1,010 12,040 2,709 1,616 587 9,339 431 1,010 15,692 No of tables yoy9%1%1%20%0%2%6%0%0%0%17%1%0%4% No of slots yoy-6%15%6%32%0%-6%10%1%2%0%27%0%0%8% No of hotel rooms yoy0%0%0%59%0%0%21%0%0%0%64%0%0%30% Table yield Table yield Blended VIP as
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