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1、 2012 power report ISSN 1754-4238 published by Business Monitor International Ltd. SINGApore INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2012 Business Monitor International
2、. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electr
3、onic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be ac
4、curate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affect
5、ing any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. SINGAPORE POWER REPORT 2012 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2021 Par
6、t of BMIs Industry Report the share transfer was completed in December 2011. ? In March 2012, TP Utilities, a wholly-owned unit of Tuas Power, announced its plans to add 650 tonnes per hour of steam capacity to its clean coal/ biomass multi-utilities facility on Jurong Island, in a move to meet risi
7、ng energy demand from industry. ? Singapores Energy Market Authority revealed in February 2012 that work was underway on Singapores first LNG terminal, which is scheduled to begin operations in Q213. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 SWOT Analysis Singapore Power
8、SWOT Strengths ? Industry deregulation and privatisation is relatively advanced in the power sector. ? Construction of Singapores first LNG terminal, which is set to begin operations in Q213, will reduce Singapores risk associated with gas supply and pricing. Weaknesses ? There are no domestic fuel
9、resources to supply power generation. ? Around 80% of Singapores electricity is generated from natural gas. Opportunities ? Expansion of gas-fired power capacity continues, with some coal-fired and renewable generation planned. ? Singapores small size makes it a good test bed for small-scale renewab
10、le energy and low carbon pilot projects, such as trials begun in the Jetty Area on Pulau Ubin in early-2012. Threats ? Increasing dependency on imported gas makes Singapore vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility. ? Singapore is a densely populated island with high electricity consumpt
11、ion demands and little spare land to develop new power generation plants and aspire to energy independence. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Global Industry Overview BMI View: Our integration of sector fundamentals and macroeconomic analysis has seen our core vie
12、ws for the power sector continue to play out. Having highlighted that weakened economic growth prospects will reinforce dynamics specific to the power sector, we anticipate that the divergence in the performance of power markets across regions will remain a dominant feature. Muted economic growth an
13、d austerity measures will continue to inhibit a sustained recovery in power demand in developed markets and in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), where growing risk aversion will also favour divestment over capital expenditure (capex). Conversely, the energy infrastructure segment will fare better in
14、 developing markets, where significant increases in power generation capacity are necessary in order to support economic growth and curb discontent. Downside Risks Materialising BMI Power Universe Total Electricity Consumption, Growth (% Y-O-Y) By Region e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: EIA/Wor
15、ld Bank/National Statistical Agencies/BMI Calculations. Our views on the renewables and nuclear segments remain the same as in previous quarters. We maintain that renewable projects will be increasingly exposed to competing forces, with overcapacity concerns, austerity measures and a poor macroecono
16、mic environment likely to weigh on the share prices of wind and solar manufacturers and developers. Consequently, further consolidation in the sector is expected in 2012, through mergers however, the region will maintain its status a global outperformer in the power sector. Our medium- to long-term
17、outlook for Asia is positive, with increasing demand, coupled with largely inadequate electrification rates and installed capacity levels, making the power sector a priority for most governments. Most notably, vast growth potential in the power segment and improved access to financing in the overall
18、 infrastructure sector should help maintain investor interest in the regions power markets. Indeed, with economic activity showing signs of softening across Asia, monetary policies are being loosened, creating a more positive credit climate. Short-term Downside Risks To Materialise, But Long-Term Ou
19、tlook Still Positive We note that global- and country-specific economic headwinds present risks to our short-term outlook, especially in countries where power consumption is largely related to export-oriented manufacturing activities. From this perspective, and factoring in the views of BMIs country
20、 risk analysts, we therefore anticipate that power consumption in Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea will take a hit. Most notably, the Chinese power sector will also see a contraction in its consumption and generation growth rates, in line with BMIs view that the country will e
21、xperience a hard landing. This is a view corroborated by the official data for Chinas real estate sector, which confirms that a structural decline in house prices is now well under way. 2012 Slow Down But Positive In Medium Term Total Net Consumption, Growth % y-o-y e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sour
22、ces: EIA/National Statistical Agencies/BMI. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Nonetheless, we believe that long-term dynamics will continue to prompt regional governments to refurbish and expand their electricity generating capacity, with various major projects p
23、roposed or already under way. Although weakening economic activity is expected to shrink the power consumption growth rate in 2012, BMIs power forecasts have long showed that power consumption in Asia will see a sharp expansion over our 10-year forecast period. China and, to a lesser extent, India w
24、ill remain in a league of their own in absolute terms, but we anticipate that electricity generation and consumption in power- hungry Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia will lead to these countries having the highest average year-on- year (y-o-y) growth rates in the region between 2011 and 2021. Conver
25、sely, power markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Australia will benefit from positive - but comparatively smaller - growth rates. China And India On A League Of Their Own Asia Region Total Installed Capacity By Country In 2021, % (Forecast) * Including: Taiwan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philip
26、pines, Singapore, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Cambodia. e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: UN Data/National Statistical Agencies/GWEC/BMI. With hikes in power demand expected in Asia over the long term, we anticipate that the regional power markets will be regularly exposed to severe power shortages, f
27、orcing regional governments to refurbish and expand their electricity generating capacity. Despite a rise in spending in the power sector, the deficit in power infrastructure (both power plants and transmission and distribution lines) is still sizeable. Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor I
28、nternational Ltd Page 16 Increasing Electrification Rates Electricity Access (%) In Developing Asia In 2009 Source: IEA. Improving Quality Of Supply Quality of Electricity Supply (Value/7) Source: World Economic Forum - Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012 Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Mon
29、itor International Ltd Page 17 A substantial increase in generating capacity is thus crucial if numerous countries in the region are to improve their inadequate electrification rates and support the pace of economic development. Electricity shortages, particularly in South Asia, remain commonplace,
30、preventing Asian economies from growing at their maximum potential and in cases such as Vietnam, eroding their competitive edge vis-vis to better powered economies. Greater Access to Financing Contributes To Constructive View For Big Players We have long highlighted that obscure business environment
31、s (as clearly illustrated by our power risk/reward ratings) and funding difficulties create significant downside risks to the realisation and/or timely development of a number of projects. Yet, despite the economic headwinds mentioned above, we believe Asias power sector in 2012 could benefit from t
32、he increased access to financing, as observed by BMIs infrastructure analysts. As noted in BMIs Improving Monetary Conditions Beneficial To Asia Risk/Reward Profile - March 28 2012, access to financing for infrastructure development has historically been an Achilles heel for many Asian countries, as
33、 the lack of depth and sophistication in their domestic financial markets deters private investors from taking on their debt instruments. Yet, several Asian countries have taken positive steps to remove impediments to infrastructure financing, boosting mechanisms for risk transfer, offering governme
34、nt-guaranteed bonds or launching infrastructure funds with tax incentives. Furthermore, with economic activity showing signs of softening across Asia, monetary policies are starting to loosen, creating a more positive credit climate and enabling growth in the infrastructure sector, including the pow
35、er segment. In Indonesia, most notably, the parliament approved a long-delayed land acquisition bill at the end of 2011, paving the way for greater speed and clarity in Indonesias land acquisition process. Meanwhile, two of the three main ratings agencies, Fitch and Moodys, have granted Indonesia it
36、s first ever investment-grade rating. This visible recognition of Indonesias investment climate should boost overseas interest in Indonesian bonds, enabling the central government to finance its infrastructure plans. We also note that - in India - finance minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed scrapping
37、 the import duties on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of the countrys budget, in an attempt to bail out Indias crisis-hit power sector. While the move could help utilities in the short term, the long-term benefits are somewhat dubious, with reforms that will have an impact on the countr
38、ys business environment taking centre stage. Conversely, we highlight that the situation in the Pakistani power sector continues to deteriorate, with the amount of circular debt (with lower tariffs limiting the capacity of utilities to pay for their fuels consumption, and oil marketing companies - s
39、uch as Pakistan State Oil - incapable of paying the refineries that sell them the fuel) in Pakistans power sector surpassing crisis levels. Furthermore, the Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 18 governments deteriorating fiscal position suggests that near-term option
40、s to alleviate some of this pressure are limited. Even if the government manages to find short-term band-aid measures to address the situation, we note that unless long-term structural reforms such as energy price liberalisation and power sector privatisation are pursued, the risk of a recurrence of
41、 the problem will remain. As mentioned above, numerous unresolved business environment and market-related problems create significant downside risks to the vast majority of the power markets in the region, with concrete action to enact reforms desperately needed. From this perspective, Indias intent
42、ion to impose a 19% duty - a 5% customs duty, a 10% countervailing (anti-subsidy) duty and a 4% additional duty - on imported power generation equipment is clearly a step in the wrong direction. BMI believes that the move will raise the costs for Indian private independent power producers (IPPs) and
43、 inhibit domestic power equipment manufacturers from improving their cost competitiveness. That said, we note that some positive steps have been taken in Indonesia, where power prices will surge by an average of 10% starting from April 2012, as the government attempts to limit its electricity subsid
44、y bill to IDR45trn. We also note that Indonesian state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has released the results of a tender for three hydropower plants. The three projects - worth a total of US$2.91bn - were awarded to private developers under a public-private partnership (PPP) agreement. Si
45、ngapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 19 Industry Forecast Scenario Singapore Snapshot (Macro) Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 2011 2016 f 2021 f GDP, US$bn 258.50 361.00 493.67 GDP per capita, US$ 49,828.05 66,624.96 87,553.55 Real GDP growth, % 4.91 3.34
46、 3.43 Population, mn 5.19 5.42 5.64 Source: BMI Economics Database Country Snapshot: Power Sector Access to Electricity, % of population 99 Quality of Electricity Supply (Value) 6.8/7 Quality of Electricity Supply (Rank) 4/142 Sources: World Economic Forum - Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012/W
47、orld Bank/BMI Singapore Power Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 20 Singapore Forecast Scenario Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity Table: Singapore Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 e 2012 f 2013 f 2014 f 2015 f 2016 f T
48、otal Generation, TWh 39.30 39.37 42.75 45.13 46.20 47.87 48.81 50.79 52.51 Total Generation, Growth % y-o-y 1.47 0.18 8.57 5.57 2.38 3.60 1.97 4.07 3.37 Total Generation, KWh per capita 8,236.01 7,961.15 8,403.95 8,698.11 8,789.44 9,029.59 9,145.19 9,449.70 9,690.67 Thermal Generation, TWh 39.21 39.
49、29 42.65 45.00 46.06 47.72 48.66 50.64 52.34 Thermal Generation, Growth % y-o-y 1.42 0.20 8.53 5.51 2.38 3.60 1.96 4.07 3.37 Thermal Generation, KWh per capita 8,217.15 7,944.97 8,384.29 8,673.02 8,763.69 9,002.79 9,117.34 9,420.78 9,660.68 Thermal Generation, % of Total Electricity Generation 99.77 99.80 99.77 99.71 99.71 99.70 99.70 99.69 99.69 Coal Generation, TWh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coal Generation, Growth