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1、U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010: Surviving and Thriving in Challenging Economic Times March 2009 Packaged Facts 11200 Rockville Pike Rockville, Maryland 20852 800.298.5294 t 240.747.3095 f Company Background Packaged Facts is a trusted provider of authoritative consumer market research. For over
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7、 immediately online. Instant Online Delivery is a unique online delivery method that enables you to purchase, read and use the research you need immediately. Personalized Client Support Packaged Facts is unrivaled in the level of client support that we provide to our clients. From assistance in iden
8、tifying the most relevant research, to post-sale question and answer support, our goal is to develop long-term relationships that meet the ongoing needs of our clients. David Lummis is the senior pet market analyst for Packaged Facts. He is also author of the monthly “Market Outlook“ column in Pet P
9、roduct News International, and a regular contributor of articles and market insight to other pet industry magazines as well as major business media including The New York Times and CNNMoney. Mr. Lummis also is President of New Orleans-based Marigny Research Group, Inc., a producer of custom market r
10、esearch reports for Packaged Facts. Since 1986, MRG has prepared more than 175 studies on consumer packaged goods markets and developed full report lines covering pet, demographic, retail and financial markets. Mr. Lummis, who graduated from Yale University, has also written approximately 75 other p
11、ublished B2B reports and is the author of the book, “Value Retailing in the 1990s.“ About the Author U.S. PET MARKET OUTLOOK 2009-2010: SURVIVING AND THRIVING IN CHALLENGING ECONOMIC TIMES MARCH 2009 U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010: Surviving and Thriving in Challenging Economic Times has been pre
12、pared by Packaged Facts. We serve consumer products companies and allied businesses in the United States and abroad with a complete line of research publications. Packaged Facts market intelligence reports are specifically designed to aid the action-oriented executive by providing a thorough present
13、ation of essential data and concise analysis. Vice President of Publishing Don Montuori Publisher Tatjana Meerman Research Director David Sprinkle Communications Associate Daniel Granderson Author David Lummis Marigny Research Group, Inc. New Orleans, LA Publication Date March 2009 LA2154192 1-59814
14、-258-5 All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced without permission of the publisher. Copyright 2009 Packaged Facts U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010 Table of Contents March 2009 Packaged Facts i Table of Contents U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010: Surviving and Thriving in Chall
15、enging Economic Times Chapter 1: Introduction1 Scope of Report 1 Report Methodology1 Overview.3 Economy, Value and Recession Resistance.3 Pet Humanization6 Table 1-1: Percent of Pet Owners Who Anticipate Spending Less on Pet Food/Supplies or Pet Services in Next 12 Months, February 2009 .7 Premium D
16、emographics7 Pet Market Momentum8 High Rates of Value-Added Product Entries .8 Table 1-2: Number of New Pet Product Introductions: Reports and SKUs, 2005-2009.8 Table 1-3: Top 20 Marketing Claims by Number of New Pet Product Reports, 2008 9 Pet Care Services Also Going Strong .10 International Cross
17、-Pollination.10 Illustration 1-1: Nestl Purinas Friskies Flea Repellent Drops (France).11 A $57 Billion Market by 2010.12 Table 1-4: U.S. Pet Market Retail Sales by Category: 2009 and 2010 (in billions of dollars)12 Table 1-5: U.S. Pet Market Compound Annual Growth Rates: 2004-2008 vs. 2008-2013 (pe
18、rcent)13 Chapter 2: Humanization15 More Than a Trend15 A Three-Pronged Movement.15 Human/Animal Bond .15 Figure 2-1: “Consider My Pet(s) Part of the Family”: By Percent of Pet, Dog/Cat, Dog and Cat Owners, February 2009 16 Table 2-1: Mean Number of Veterinary Visits: By Human/Animal Bond Among Dog a
19、nd Cat Households, 200617 Table 2-2: Mean Veterinary Expenditures: By Human/Animal Bond Among Dog and Cat Households, 2006 (in dollars).17 Human Company Cross-Over.18 Illustration 2-1: Jakks Pacifics White Bites Oral Care Dog Treats with Arm interviews with pet market experts; participation in pet i
20、ndustry events including the American Pet Products Associations Global Pet Expos (2004-2009); Petfood Industry/Watt Publishings Petfood Forums (2004-2008); an on-site examination of retail and service provider venues; and extensive Internet canvassing including blogs. Secondary research included inf
21、ormation- and data-gathering from consumer business and trade publications including Petfood Industry, Pet Age, Pet Product News International, Veterinary Practice News and Pet Business; company profiles in trade and consumer publications; and other pet market reports by Packaged Facts. Our estimate
22、s of market size and company performance are based on figures reported to Packaged Facts by individual companies; data from Information Resources, Inc.s (IRI) T Chapter 1: Introduction U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010 2 Packaged Facts March 2009 InfoScan Review, which tracks sales in supermarkets,
23、drugstores and mass merchandisers other than Walmart; data from SPINScan, which tracks sales in the natural supermarket channel; surveys of independent and chain pet store retailers; reported revenues of pet product manufacturers and retailers and of pet services providers; government data including
24、 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Surveys; and figures from other market research sources. Data on new product introductions are provided by Datamonitors Productscan Online service. Discussions of consumer demographics in this report generally rely on Packaged Facts above-noted o
25、nline pet owner poll, as well as data compiled by Simmons Market Research Bureau, New York, NY. On an ongoing basis, Simmons conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population. The Summer 2
26、008 adult survey primarily cited in this report is based on 24,898 respondents. Our analysis also relies on Simmons index system, which is designed to calibrate agreement with a particular statement or usage of a particular product among a given segment of the population, compared with that of the p
27、opulation as a whole. If, for example, 10% of those surveyed agree with a particular statement, with 20% of females and 5% of males agreeing, the female group would have an index of 200, the male group an index of 50. Generally speaking, Packaged Facts considers an index of 110 or higher, or 90 or l
28、ower, to represent statistically significant deviations from overall averages. U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010 Chapter 1: Introduction March 2009 Packaged Facts 3 Overview Economy, Value and Recession Resistance s this report goes to press in early March 2009, a single dark thread weaves through a
29、ll of the most important factors at play in the U.S. pet market, this being the uncertainty stemming from the global economic meltdown that began to make headlines in October 2008. By no account is the news good, including January 2009 reports of the highest level of employment the country has seen
30、in almost 16 years as of December 2008at 7.2% compared with 4.9% in December 2007 when the recession officially began. The steady hemorrhaging of jobs524,000 lost in December alonecompounds a host of other problems plaguing the U.S. economy, including the credit crisis, a dismal housing market rife
31、with foreclosures, high levels of personal debt, financial markets teetering on the brink of collapse, and other major components of U.S. commerce including the automotive industry in dire straits. Many economists expect this recession to be the most sustained since the Great Depression, noting that
32、 the two longest recessions of the postwar era1973-75 and 1982-83each lasted 16 months. Not surprisingly therefore, American consumers are monitoring their spending more closely than they have in recent years and even decades. According to The Consumer Confidence Survey, which is conducted each mont
33、h for the Conference Board by TNS Media Intelligence, the consumer confidence index plunged to 37.7 in January 2009, compared with 87.3 in January 2008 and 110.2 in January 2007. In other words, as of January 2009, consumer confidence was nearly two-thirds (62.3%) down from the baseline (using calen
34、dar year 1985 as a benchmark to yield the index value)an all-time low. Moreover, the present situation sub-index was at 29.9 and the consumer expectations sub-index at 43.0, compared with 114.3 and 69.3 one year ago, respectively. Although consumer confidence rebounded somewhat in November due in pa
35、rt to the outcome of the presidential election, the outlook was still gloomy by historical standards, with 44.7 as the overall index. A Chapter 1: Introduction U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010 4 Packaged Facts March 2009 As in 2008, when retail sales rose just 1.4%, this anemic outlook is expected
36、to continue to negatively impact retail sales in 2009. According to a National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast released in late January, U.S. retailers are expected to post a record 0.5% drop in revenue in 2009, the first annual decline in at least three decades, with rampant layoffs, falling home
37、prices and tight credit keeping consumers tightfisted. In the NRF report, retail sales are forecast to fall 2.5% during the first half of 2009 and by 1.1% in the third quarter, before rebounding to a 3.6% increase in the fourth quarter. Some of this improvement will be merely a function of the disma
38、l 1.7% retail sales decline seen in fourth quarter 2008, to which the 2009 figure will be compared, but anticipated government economic stimulus is also expected to give consumer spending a bump (Associated Press, January 27, 2009). Given these trends and predictions, Packaged Facts views it as a gi
39、ven that consumers across virtually all industries will be demanding greater value in the products they buy, exploring less expensive options including private labels and self-care approaches, and consolidating shopping trips to save gas. In the pet market, we expect to see value appeals carefully w
40、eighted against product pricing, with targeted health benefits and money-saving opportunities such as coupons and bonus sizes emerging as key themes for pet products at all levels of the market including the luxury segment. We also expect to see some manufacturers and retailers feel the pinchCentral
41、 Garden the addition or expansion of pet care services by independent pet specialty retailers, including convenience-oriented services such as home delivery and Internet alerts; and the proliferation of independent franchise outfits, as discussed below (see Chapter 4, “Franchising Altering Pet Servi
42、ces Terrain”). International Cross-Pollination An additional market driver on the products side is the heavy international involvement of most of the major players. Companies including Nestl Purina, Mars, Hartz Mountain and Central Garden mass-market retailers including Walmart, Target, Publix and W
43、inn Dixie; and pet specialty chains including PetSmart, Petco and Pet Supermarket. The final judgment, handed down in February 2008 following consolidation of the suits, was a $24 million settlement to be paid to aggrieved pet owners, in addition to the $8 million that had already been paid by Menu
44、Foods. Other signals of the greater appreciation and changing role of pets in U.S. society are manifold, including: U.S. Pet Market Outlook 2009-2010 Chapter 2: Humanization March 2009 Packaged Facts 29 Growing public aversion to animal cruelty and mistreatment in all forms, with the APSCA at the fo
45、refront of this battle. Founded in 1866 as the first humane organization in the Western Hemisphere, the Societys mission is “to provide effective means for the prevention of cruelty to animals throughout the United Stateswhether its saving a pet who has been accidentally poisoned, fighting to pass h
46、umane laws, rescuing animals from abuse or sharing resources with shelters across the country.” Along these lines, in December 2007 a U.S. district judge surprised many legal pundits and lay observers by sentencing National Football League star Michael Vick to up to 23 months in prison for spearhead
47、ing a dog fighting operation. Commenting on the crime U.S. District Judge Henry E. Hudson told Vick that he was “instrumental in promoting, funding and facilitating this cruel and inhumane sporting activity” and that he should “apologize to the millions of young people who looked up to you.” Other f
48、acets of the no-animal-cruelty movement include efforts of animal rights groups including the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS) to shut down “puppy mills” (i.e., irresponsible or unethical breeders), ban cosmetic and drug testing on animals, and promote no-euthanize shelters and hospices fo
49、r aged and terminally ill pets. The push to encourage pet adoption through such highly organized and broad-reaching efforts as those of the ASPCA; P, which has helped with 12 million dog and cat shelter adoptions since 1995; 1-800- Save-A-P, a non-profit pet adoption charity that helps pet welfare groups advertise their homeless pets without a fee; P, which offers an online searchable database of pets by local community; and Adopt-a-P an online service sponsored by Purina that allows animal welfa