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1、 Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Simba Information 60 Long Ridge Road Phone: 203.325.8193 Suite 300 Fax: 203.325.8975 Stamford, CT 06902 Customer Service: 888.29.SIMBA Published by: 2013 Simba Information By Michael Norris and the editors of Simba Information Simba Information, Consumer Media 22% Read
2、 at Least One While the e-book industry did slow in 2012 a huge number of adults still began experimenting with digital books for the first time. But something else happened in 2012 as well: print book purchasing and use ticked up too, though part of that may have been due to the runaway success of
3、the E.L. James hit erotic trilogy, Fifty Shades which sold millions of print books in a very short time last year. Even though the population of e-book users did go up, some changes in the market have shown that their attitudes towards reading books has changed too. E-Book Slowdown of 2012 Complex;
4、Linked to Borders Collapse of 2011 What actually caused the now-widely understood e-book slowdown of 2012 will occupy a lot of discussions and trade association panels for some time. As this report will explain, more consumers spending less and the distracting effect of tablets did not play a small
5、part. But Simba has found that the practice of e-book showrooming (when e-book users visit physical stores to browse and leave to buy for their Kindle or other device) has a little-discussed but serious side effect: the loss of a store means the lost of a showroom for books and for reading. Accordin
6、g to Simba data, one in five e-book users bought at least one print book over the last three months in a chain bookstore, while nearly 13% used an independent shop. When Borders fell in Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Executive Summary 2013 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibi
7、ted. 2 Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Executive Summary 2013 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 2 2011, it meant the loss of over 600 stores and five million square feet of book discovery space. Given that other studies have shown that e-book consumers still rely on boo
8、kstores and their staffers (as well as librarians and others) to get ideas on what to read, it is impossible not to conclude that the loss of bookstores has had a negative effect on the entire book market. E-Book Users Still Have Relationships With Print As we just noted, most e-book owners still bu
9、y print. New to this edition of this report is a comprehensive cross-tabulation among e-book users and the extent they buy and read paperback and hardcover books. While the print formats are clearly challenged, they do stay in the lead of digital book content for a reason: e-book users still buy and
10、 read them, and in higher rates than the entire U.S. adult population. While some entities have been more effective than others at encouraging loyalty to a digital ecosystem, this common, multi-format consumer needs to be taken into account in any discussion of the future of e-books. Childrens/YA Ad
11、option Still Slow, Still Growing, But Vulnerable Its been widely known and understood that the childrens e-book market has been smaller and growing slower than that of the adult trade side. After all, childrens books, both digital and print, are almost always bought by adults and in turn given to ch
12、ildreneven though Simba research has shown childrens e-books are more likely to be purchased by (and read by) adults than the print counterpart. Additionally, new data suggests that while childrens/YA was indeed affected by the e-book slowdown, the growth of childrens e-book buyers is rising. Howeve
13、r, there is growing evidence that the digital natives are losing more and more contact with regular reading to begin with. Coupled with the constant barrage of other things to do with their time, getting kids to read any format of book is going to be a continuous uphill battle, but one that needs to
14、 be fought. Pursuit of Digital Content Access Doesnt Mean Content Will Be Accessed For the longest time, the publishing industry has spoken of the need that people be able to access e-books. The recently released fourth edition of Scholastics newest Kids something that was later confirmed during Bar
15、nes a figure that dropped to $63 million in the third quarter of 2011. For the most recent third quarter, the company swung to a net loss of $274 million. The e-commerce giant also spent more than twice as much on marketing in the third quarter of 2012 compared to the same period of 2010: for Q3 201
16、2 marketing expenses were $540 million compared to $241 million in Q3 2010 with $370 million spent in the third quarter of 2011. Although Amazon has its fingers in a lot more pies than just the e-book market, Simba had seen hints of a softer e-book market for some time. We first raised the possibili
17、ty of a slowdown in mid-2011, and according to our proprietary survey of August 2012, about one in five adults who have used a Kindle for e-reading in the past three months didnt buy any books for their device during that period. Additionally, about 15% of Kindle users have upgraded their Kindles in
18、 the last three months. Meanwhile, about 7.1% of respondents to Simbas survey in September 2011 indicated they had read at least one book on a Kindle; a figure that climbed to about 10.3% for our August 2012 survey. In the simplest explanation: more are reading e-books, more own Kindles and other e-
19、reading devices, but there are fewer spending hand over fist on content for their devicesas well show in Chapter 2. One of the clues that adoption was slower, aside from anecdotal evidence from publishers, was that the long-anticipated price war, which was set to come about due to some major publish
20、ers losing an anti-trust case in May 2012, just didnt take place. Amazon did respond to the victory by lowering the prices of some book products, but its own financials and Simbas own analysis was showing it simply wasnt having the probable desired effect of bringing more adults into the e-book spac
21、e. Indeed, by late December 2012, the New York Times Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 “Short of Expectations” 2013 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 7 Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 “Short of Expectations” 2013 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibi
22、ted. 7 openly wondered where the price war was. While Simba wont deny a price war wont ever start, Simbas trade group senior analyst Michael Norris told the Times it was possible e-book retailers were asking themselves how low prices should go before the sales of e-books isnt worthwhile. One would a
23、lso have theorized that if the market was growing and expanding rapidly, there would be more of a volume incentive to lower prices. One of the possible reasons the market behaved as it did in 2012 had to do with non-book related content making a little-noticed move on readings turf. According to Sim
24、ba analysis, about 15% of adults owned an iPad in 2012, up from around 8% the previous year. Meanwhile, the number of non-iPad tablets grew tremendously as well: According to Simbas proprietary survey of February 2013, about 15% of adults owned an iPad while close to 13% owned a tablet that wasnt an
25、 iPad. We had also found about half of adults owned a smart phone. While the ownership of tablets and smartphones meant that a lot more adults had access to e-books that just wasnt there previously, Simba was rightly skeptical that more tablets were simply going to create new e-book consumers out of
26、 the blue: data collected just months after the iPad was first released in 2010 suggested that a good number of iPad owners werent reading e-books to begin with, and further analysis allowed us to confirm this in early 2011, as we found about 45% of iPad owners werent e-book users; a figure that has
27、 fluctuated in that range consistently since. In the most recent survey, Simba found that 52.2% of iPad owners are e-book users, 60.2% of non-iPad owners are e-book users, and just 37.0% of smartphone users count themselves in the e-book using population. What book publishers apparently forgot is th
28、at the tablet not only allows consumers to readily access content that has always been more popular than readingsuch as watching video, playing games and accessing musicbut the portability of the tablet itself has allowed those activities to move into readings turf in ways that just havent been poss
29、ible before. A key advantage of books has always been its portability, but with tablets evolving to accommodate other media it is becoming easier than ever to, in the words of an early iPad television commercial, curl up with a movie. The adoption of tablets alsoas well show in Chapter 4 of this rep
30、ortchanged how consumers access e-books and has led to the decrease in use of E-ink devices. By default, this meant consumers werent going to be as engaged with reading as they had been previously, since the E-ink device they were upgrading was being replaced by something that could be used for so m
31、any other activitiesmuch of them free and requiring a lot less intellectual engagement than that of a book. Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 “Short of Expectations” 2013 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 8 Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 “Short of Expectations” 2013 Simba I
32、nformation, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 8 Another thing that negatively affected the consumer e-book market recently was, strangely enough, the liquidation of the bookseller Borders in 2011. In June of that year, Simba pointed out that e-book consumers still buy print books and f
33、requently browse bookstores to get ideas on what to read next, which made us worry about what the loss of 600+ bookstores from the once-pioneering Ann Arbor-based chain would mean for the book discovery ecosystem. In the June 2011 Book Publishing Report article, Weighing the Sale of Barnes this was
34、an argument that was batted around regularly when the music industry began asking questions about who was getting the free music. According to Simbas findings, a full 27.4% of all e-book users who had spent less than $20 on e-book content had gotten ten or more free e-books in the previous twelve mo
35、nths. When looking at the group of e-book users who had spent $200 or more or even $50 or more, the sample sizes of those groups who were acquiring free e-books were too small to generate a statistically significant figure. Table 2.10: Number of E-Books Bought in Past 12 Months February 2010 Februar
36、y 2013 Pertains to nine surveys conducted about 4-6 mos. apart from February 2010 through February 2013 Source: Simba Information estimates. Copying prohibited. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% None 1?5 6+ Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Trends this was an argument that was batted around regularly when the m
37、usic industry began asking questions about who was getting the free music. According to Simbas findings, a full 27.4% of all e-book users who had spent less than $20 on e-book content had gotten ten or more free e-books in the previous twelve months. When looking at the group of e-book users who had
38、 spent $200 or more or even $50 or more, the sample sizes of those groups who were acquiring free e-books were too small to generate a statistically significant figure. Table 2.10: Number of E-Books Bought in Past 12 Months February 2010 February 2013 Pertains to nine surveys conducted about 4-6 mos
39、. apart from February 2010 through February 2013 Source: Simba Information estimates. Copying prohibited. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% None 1?5 6+ Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Trends meaning a book can be lent about 26 times in one year (26 two-week periods; longer for backlist titles) and there is a
40、finite number of times a print book can be lent before it falls apart from wear and cant be lent any longer. At this time it is unknown what extent this practice has accomplished what HarperCollins wanted it to. Because books and e-books both have different value propositions and will both be around
41、 forever, its best they be positioned differently as the details and circumstances of lending are different with an e-book than they are for a physical book. For instance, if Person A were willing to loan a decades-old hardcover book to Person B, Person A would expect Person B to both take care of t
42、hat book and bring it back. However, when one takes the take care of it and bring it back parts out of the transaction, its fair to say e-books are being lent in an environment where trust Table 2.11: Sources of Free E-Books 2011-2012 Percentage of E-Book Users 2011 Percentage of E-Book Users 2012 O
43、nline from free websites (other than libraries) 15%12% Libraries/library websites 19%16% Friends/relatives 7%*7%* Survey pertains to about 398 e-book users for 2011 and 547 for 2012. * = projections based on low sample size Source: Simba Information Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Trends meaning a book
44、 can be lent about 26 times in one year (26 two-week periods; longer for backlist titles) and there is a finite number of times a print book can be lent before it falls apart from wear and cant be lent any longer. At this time it is unknown what extent this practice has accomplished what HarperColli
45、ns wanted it to. Because books and e-books both have different value propositions and will both be around forever, its best they be positioned differently as the details and circumstances of lending are different with an e-book than they are for a physical book. For instance, if Person A were willin
46、g to loan a decades-old hardcover book to Person B, Person A would expect Person B to both take care of that book and bring it back. However, when one takes the take care of it and bring it back parts out of the transaction, its fair to say e-books are being lent in an environment where trust Table
47、2.11: Sources of Free E-Books 2011-2012 Percentage of E-Book Users 2011 Percentage of E-Book Users 2012 Online from free websites (other than libraries) 15%12% Libraries/library websites 19%16% Friends/relatives 7%*7%* Survey pertains to about 398 e-book users for 2011 and 547 for 2012. * = projecti
48、ons based on low sample size Source: Simba Information Trade E-Book Publishing 2013 Trends a phenomenon which was not overlooked by the New York Times story on December 24th 2012: the massive price war that was widely expected to happen did not occur, and even though some books have been discounted by Amazon, it hasnt been as noticeable a practice. Simbas theory as to why Amazon hasnt yet moved to drastically undercut prices is that the e-book market stopped growing as much as it used to. After all, Amazon had already reduced the price of its Kindle while making the device a lot more advanced