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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe Periodical German increasing estimates Rational reported strong numbers on sales and earnings and again above expectations. The company has confirmed FY12 guidance of +10% y/y sales growth and increased earnings guidance from +10% growth to an over proportional
2、rise in earnings. Still, this seems too conservative given the strong nine-month results and favorable seasonality in Q4. Although the European debt crisis still poses a risk to business performance and visibility remains low ( three weeks), we think it is justified to increase our estimates (sales
3、+4% to E447m and earnings +7% to E97m). We raise our target price accordingly to E185 from E175 but maintain Hold on valuation. Very strong results despite macro environment In particular, sales were up 22% y/y at E113m with strong growth in Americas (+37% y/y) and Asia (+26% y/y). Despite the preva
4、lent European debt crisis, the region still posted growth of +20% y/y in Q3. Ignoring the currency impact, group sales still increased 15% y/y. EBIT also improved substantially, to E36m, posing a margin of 32%; however, we note that this came from a relatively low base given that last years margin w
5、as burdened by costs relating to new product launches (development/distribution). We estimate an E2.5-3m positive currency impact here. We raise our estimates 4% on sales and 7% on earnings The company reiterated its +10% y/y growth sales outlook and increased its earnings guidance from +10% y/y to
6、over proportional growth in earnings for FY12. We have been in line on revenues and 4% above earnings already, but think that further increases are justified given the stronger-than-expected first nine months and favorable seasonality in Q4 (historically, Q4 contributes about 29% to FY results). Rai
7、sing target price from E175 to E185; fully valued We base our target price on Rationals trading in line with its average one-year- forward P/E of 20-21x, which we consider fair given our confidence that the company can achieve double-digit growth. On our estimates, the stock trades at E21.3x 2013PE
8、(consensus 21.4x). We support our analysis by DCF (WACC of 9.5%). Risks relate to greater/lower growth (than our estimate) from new products, input costs, competition, investment needs and FX swings. Felicitas Bismarck (+49) 69 910-31975 felicitas.von- Gunnar Romer (+49) 69 910-31917 12 November 20
9、12 German +33% y/y with consolidation of Tiefenbach). Mobile transportation continues to be burdened by weak demand from major bus manufacturers (door systems) which is in part offset by robust markets for door systems for railway vehicles. Sales increased strongly (+12.5% y/y) to E91m and EBIT reac
10、hed E7m (+8%). The integration of Tiefenbach which was consolidated beginning of this year weighed on margins in H1, but made the first positive contribution in Q3 and should improve significantly in Q4 given seasonality in its business. Well on track for 2012 and encouraging 2013 guidance Schaltbau
11、 thus appears well on track to reach FY12 guidance of sales E350-360m, EBIT of E29m and net income of E21m i(n line with Deutsche Bank and consensus estimates on topline, and slightly higher on profitability levels). Today, the company also released a 2013 guidance of sales E374m (5% above our and 3
12、% above consensus); EBIT of cE33m (4% above DB, 5% above consensus) and net income of cE22m (in line with DB, 5% above consensus). The guidance track record of the management has been quite solid so that the announcement is certainly positive in a uncertain economic environment. Felicitas Bismarck (
13、+49) 69 910-31975 felicitas.von- 12 November 2012 German Bonita lfl declining The major positive for us was the strong sales growth in Retail (+28.6% yoy) and, in particular, 10.8% lfl sales growth, excluding the booming e-commerce business. Wholesale sales grew robustly at 4.2%. The first-time cons
14、olidation (from 1 August onward) of Bonita added EUR57.6m to the top line but sales declined by c3% yoy on a lfl basis. Current sales trends, strong growth at TT Retail and problems at Bonita and Wholesale are likely to continue. Margins weaker, perhaps due to non-recurring items Sales clearance, an
15、niversary promotions and an accelerating shift to direct sourcing led to a negative EBITDA in Wholesale (decline in reported recurring EBITDA less drastic but still suffered from a considerable margin decline). This was the major reason for the 4.4pp recurring EBITDA margin decline on the group leve
16、l to 10%. Most reasons appear to be non-recurring, yet such effects have repeatedly shown up since the IPO and there is hardly any clean quarter. At the bottom line, Tom Tailor benefitted from a positive tax result of EUR3m. Our FY12E EPS is up only due to technical effects (timing of share issue).
17、Valued on clean 2013 EPS; Bonita integration and margin squeezes major risks Following our comment above, we adjust our margin assumptions for 2012 modestly downward. Since our target price is based on 10x 2013 clean EPS, these changes do not affect it. A P/E of 10x represents a c10% discount to the
18、 historical trading level of the company since its IPO (11x) and puts it at a c10% discount to European peers (clothing and general retail companies). We apply a discount as Tom Tailor is implementing several projects in parallel and therefore, execution risk has grown since the IPO. Major risks: ab
19、ility to implement its growth strategy (i.e., ambitious target for retail store network); hurdles in overseas expansion plans and execution risk in the integration of Bonita into the group, as well as continued lacklustre margin developments. Michael Kuhn (+49) 69 910-36642 Benjamin Goy (+49) 69 91
20、0-31946 12 November 2012 German (2) While member growth appears encouraging, the conversion to subscriptions is disappointing. XING took initial steps to improve the attractiveness of the premium membership (attachments of up to 100MB) and we expect further initiatives in the future; (3) Post the m
21、anagement shake-out in Q3, Amiando seems back on track in Q4; (4) XING will continue to invest in mobile which accounts for c. 30% of total traffic. Update on the mandatory takeover offer by BURDA According to a press release by BURDA (dated 26 Oct), the company does not plan to implement material c
22、hanges to XINGs current strategy or take XING private. At the same time, XINGs board welcomed BURDA as an “excellent strategic investor”. The takeover offer will expire on 7 Dec and, hence, we expect XING management to issue its official recommendation to shareholders in the week starting 19 Nov. In
23、-line with our previous analysis, we would be surprised if management were to deem a Euro 44/share price tag adequate. We also reiterate our view that BURDA is unlikely to increase its offer price. Our target price puts XING on a FY13E EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x We value XING on peer group multiples.
24、 Applying a 10x one-year forward target multiple yields our Euro 50 target price (unchanged). Upside risks are (1) an increased offer price by BURDA and (2) a faster-than-expected take-up of XTM. Downside risks relate to a lower acceptance of new offers (verticals). Benjamin Kohnke (+49) 69 910-3194
25、3 Uwe Schupp (+49) 69 910-31955 12 November 2012 German modest seasonal de- stocking alongside further sequential price erosion indicate it will be a normal seasonally weak period. On-going “other” cost inflation (labour, distribution) is also likely. Despite these pressures, year-on-year comparis
26、ons will be flattered by easy base effects (Q4 11 impacted by strong de-stocking) with many able to deliver year- on-year profit growth. 2013 outlooks are likely to be the area of focus and assuming the macro will be as unclear in two months time as it is today, then we expect on- going conservatism
27、 with very few names able to confidently forecast profit growth in 2013. Not all European chemical names are on “peak-cycle” margins The perception of the market is of a sector on “peak cycle” margins but we note that many cyclical businesses are not generating peak cycle margins. Earnings and cashf
28、low for these companies may appear high relative to history but for some this is more a function of the focus on cost cutting/efficiency alongside the impact of strong volume growth (relative to the market) rather than just cyclical margin leverage. There are some significant product chains that are
29、 currently on low or mid cycle margins, such as PVC, ethylene, MMA, caprolactam, polycarbonate, parts of polyurethanes and parts of the nylon chain (BASF, DSM, ArkemaBASF, DSM, Arkema and Solvay Solvay have exposures to these products). Sector summary, valuation and risks The sector has continued to
30、 perform well (YTD) which is raising valuation concerns. However, given that not all cyclicals are at peak cycle and the prevalence of niche growth names in the sector we still see opportunities. We focus on cyclicals with strong mkt shares with self-help measures (BASF, Lanxess, ArkemaBASF, Lanxess
31、, Arkema). We recommend “defensives” with undervalued niche-growth (Linde, SyngentaLinde, Syngenta). Our favoured mid-term “change” stories are Akzo Akzo and KemiraKemira. We value the sector using DCF/SOTP. Risks include GDP, FX, oil. Tim Jones (+44) 20 754-76763 Martin Dunwoodie (+44) 20 754-7285
32、2 Virginie Boucher-Ferte (+44) 20 754-57940 virginie.boucher- Oliver Reiff (+44) 20 754-76663 German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completen
33、ess.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of
34、 persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived f
35、rom carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) O
36、rder 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates
37、Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this docu
38、ment may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on res
39、pective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guara
40、ntee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or ind
41、irectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank.
42、 This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Ac
43、t 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company account
44、s and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance EPS German S=Sell; H=Hold; B=Buy; *=in US-$; *=in CHF Deutsche Bank. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.This report is for distribution in the U.K. on
45、ly to personsto whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the mo
46、st attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates EPS German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected publ
47、ic sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 and it is not i
48、ntended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. The numbers in bold correspond to the most attractive companies on respective parameters within the universe Source: IBES, Datastream, Company accounts and Deutsche Bank estimates Performance in local cur.
49、 (%)EPSP/E German P/E: Price earnings ratio; DPS: Dividend per share in local currency; Yield: Dividend yield. This information is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is for distribution in the U.K. only to persons to whom this document may be distributed in accordance wit