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1、河北省美国白蛾预测预警体系研究 河北省美国白蛾预测预警体系研究 Research on Prediction and Alarm of Hyphantria Cunea Drury in Hebei【中文摘要】 本文对河北省内美国白蛾的风险分析、发生情况预测、建立预警体系及预警系统方面进行了研究。根据调查及文献研究,利用GARP生态位模型预测了美国白蛾在中国的潜在适生区,并在此基础上参照有害生物危险性定量分析方法,对美国白蛾在河北省的危险性做出综合评价;根据美国白蛾的生物学特性、结合气象资料及河北省森防站提供数据的基础上利用马尔科夫链法、模糊数学法为示例研究美国白蛾的发生范围及发生概率;在综合
2、考虑警源、警兆、警情等要素的基础上建立了美国白蛾预警指标体系,并利用Visual Studio 2005为开发环境建立了美国白蛾预测预警系统,取得以下研究结果:1通过对美国白蛾在中国潜在适生区预测研究表明:美国白蛾在我国的适生区分布范围:21.20N46.33N,97.80E132.11E和36.81N41.85N,76.00E94.66E(新疆的部分地区)。将美国白蛾在中国的潜在适生区分为最适生区、次适生区、半适生区和非适生区,并对预测结果进行拟合优度检验,证明所选择的最优模型具有显著的统计学意义。2害虫预测预报是害虫综合管理重要的组成部分,是一项监测昆虫未来种群变动趋势的重要工.作。通过对
3、河北部分地区美国白蛾发生范围、发生概率预测,以期对森防站正确估测美国白蛾未来发生趋势提供借鉴。3建立美国白蛾预警指标体系直接、客观的反映了虫害发生过程中正在或潜在的影响灾害结果的不同属性特征的指标。这些指标在美国白蛾虫害预警过程中具备灾害描述、结果评价、预警未来发展的功能。4美国白蛾预测预警系统实现了对河北省美国白蛾历史资料的数字化存储、信息化管理和统计分析自动化。系统集合地理信息系统,网络信息传输实现了对河北省内美国白蛾进行定殖分析、监测预测预警、发布预警信息的功能。系统操作简单,具有很强的实用性。 还原【英文摘要】 In this paper, Hebei Province, within
4、 the risk analysis of Hyphantria cunea, the occurrence of the forecast, the establishment of early warning system and early warning systems were studied. According to the survey and literature research, the use of GARP niche models to predict the fall webworm in China suitable area, and on this basi
5、s the risk of harmful organisms with reference to quantitative analysis methods, the risk of Hyphantria cunea in Hebei Province to make a comprehensive evaluation; According to the biological characteristics of Hyphantria cunea, combined with meteorological data and The Forest Pest Management and Qu
6、arantine Station in Hebei Province to provide data based on the use of regression analysis, Population base method, Markov chain method, fuzzy mathematical method for the sample period of study of the occurrence of the scope and probability of occurrence; taking into account police sources, warning
7、signs, police and other elements of the situation based on earl.y warning indicators of Hyphantria cunea and use Visual Studio 2005 development environment for the establishment of early warning systems for forecasting Hyphantria cunea , made the following findings:1 the study of Hyphantria cunea in
8、 China suitable area shows that the forecast: Hyphantria cunea in China suitable area range: 21.20N 46.33N, 97.80E 132.11E and 36.81N 41.85N, 76.00E 94.66E (part of the Xinjiang province). Hyphantria cunea in China will be the potential suitable area is divided into the most suitable Health Area, at
9、 suitable area, semi-suitable and non-suitable areas, and predict the results of fit test to prove that the optimal model choice with significant statistical significance.2 Forecasting pest integrated pest management is an important component of the insect is a monitor the future trend of population
10、 changes in the important work. In some areas of Hebei , through the study of the scope of Hyphantria cunea occurs, the forecast probability of occurrence, providing a view to a correct estimation of the Hyphantria cunea for The Forest Pest Management and Quarantine Station to get the trend of the f
11、uture for reference.3 to establish an early warning indicator system cunea direct and objective reflection of the process of pest occurrence or potential is the result of the impact of disasters, the characteristics of the different attributes of the indicators. These early warning indicators in the
12、 process of Hyphantria cunea pest disasters have described the results of the evaluation, the future development of early warning function.4 Hyphantria cunea forecast system to achieve an early warning system for all cunea digitized historical data storage, information management and statistical ana
13、lysis automation. System of collection of geographical information systems, information transmission network in Hebei Province has carried out within the Hyphantria cunea colonization analysis, early warning monitoring the forecast, the function of dissemination of early warning information. System
14、is simple, has a strong practical. 还原【中文关键词】 美国白蛾; 适生区; 风险分析; 预测; 预警系统 【英文关键词】 Hyphantria cunea; suitable area; risk analysis; forecast; early warning system 【毕业论文目录】摘要 4-5 Abstract 5-6 1 引言 9-19 1.1 研究背景 9-10 1.2 相关领域研究进展综述 10-18 1.2.1 美国白蛾发生危害状况 10-12 1.2.2 有害生物风险分析研究进展 12-14 1.2.3 有害生物发生预测研究进展 14
15、-15 1.2.4 有害生物预警体系研究 15-16 1.2.5 计算机在森林病虫害监测管理研究方面的进展 16-18 1.3 科学问题的提出 18-19 2 美国白蛾的适生风险分析 19-28 2.1 基于GARP 的美国白蛾适生性分析 19-22 2.1.1 材料与方法 19-20 2.1.2 结果与分析 20-22 2.2 美国白蛾在河北省的风险评估 22-27 2.2.1 材料与方法 22-24 2.2.2 结果与分析 24-27 2.3 小结 27-28 3 美国白蛾的发生预测 28-32 3.1 发生范围预测 28-29 3.1.1 预测方法 28 3.1.2 结果与分析 28-2
16、9 3.2 发生概率预测 29-31 3.2.1 预测方法 29-30 3.2.2 发生概率结果分析 30-31 3.3 小结 31-32 4 美国白蛾预警体系及系统 32-43 4.1 预警体系的建立 32-33 4.2 系统的总体结构 33-34 4.3 系统的开发环境及采用的网络技术 34-36 4.3.1 SQL SERVER 2000 34-35 4.3.2 Visual Studio 2005.NET 35 4.3.3 ASP.NET 技术 35-36 4.4 系统的功能 36-40 4.4.1 基础数据模块 36-37 4.4.2 地理信息系统 37 4.4.3 定殖分析 37-38 4.4.4 预警功能 38-40 4.5 系统的应用 40-42 4.6 小结 42-43 5 结论与讨论 43-45 5.1 结论 43-44 5.2 讨论 44-45 参考文献 45-48 附录 48-50 在读期间发表的学术论文 50-51 作者简历 51-52 致谢 52