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1、The future development trend of wireless communicationRecently, the British Ofcom release entitled trend in future wireless communications research report, put forward in the six important problems to be solved before communication development in 2028, pointed out the direction for the development o
2、f the next period of time the communication industry.1、Comprehensive considerationThis report is at the end of 2008, Ofcom held a wireless communication in the future development trend of the seminar on on the basis of the finishing results, more than 10 members to participate in the seminar experts
3、 are communication related fields and senior professionals, including Cambridge and other British famous university professor, who is responsible for the BBC broadcasting research and innovation department, senior researchers at Microsoft, BT, Vodafone, Orange and other communications giant strategy
4、 researchers etc.Ofcom hosting this symposium aims, to determine the next 10 to 20 years the most important communication technology, analysis the technical development and new business application may bring benefits, key points, main obstacles and schedule, determine the future development of the f
5、ocus of the work of Ofcom.This seminar is not confined to the communication field of technical analysis, but starting from three broad dimensions of social, environmental and economic, analysis should be the direction in the communication industry macro environment.Experts say, the next 10 to 20 yea
6、rs, each field of the society will have some great changes in social development trend, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: people spending on cars, robots are used more widely, the human development of bionics, city trend, big city increase, serious integrity problems, in the home
7、office is more common. Environmental trend is shown in the following aspects: ecological factory, more popular company promises utilization of renewable resources, a breath of fresh air into the new demand. Economic trends are: the world more open, human recessive cost higher thinking again, water s
8、upply is becoming increasingly tight, the economic crisis still exists, the data center on IP.Change brings opportunity has five main aspects: from people looking for work to work for someone; robot let people have more leisure time, but people may not have enough cash to support; increase the big c
9、ity which makes people from the salt water and contaminated water in clean drinking water; large remote data center a small, localized and high flexibility of the data center instead of.Challenges also exist, mainly in the following aspects: the growing gap between city and countryside; poverty, inc
10、reasing elderly population, the shortage of Social Pension Reserve; in developed countries, the economic pressure makes most people want to work at the age of 70; intellectual property can no longer be sold for money, people think it should be free to enjoy the rise in oil prices to restrict peoples
11、 travel;, more and more people choose to work at home.In addition, 20 years after the society also faces such problems: environment and stable development threatens the economic pressure; energy consumption problem is increasingly outstanding, will increase the energy use restrictions.Ofcom requires
12、 experts elected in 2018 and 2028 the whole society are facing the most important opportunities and challenges, the emphasis is how to explain these opportunities and challenges to influence the world, but not how to solve these problems, the results are as shown in the table.2、The establishment of
13、the six areas of concernBased on the above analysis, the experts to discuss and suggest that Ofcom in the next 10 to 20 years research and development focused on the following issues.First, network architecture and protocol of IP/NGN era. IP due to the transmission according to the bit, the energy c
14、onsumption efficiency is low, at the same time, the IP address resources will eventually be exhausted, communication mode, the ideal is not the IP/NGN, Ofcom must think about what the future instead of IP/NGN.Second, a measure of new analysis method of communication. The existing measure of means of
15、 communication is too narrow and too simple, the future should be to measure the communication with new tools and methods, need to consider the effect of various aspects, including cost, traffic, energy consumption, social benefits, environmental impact.Third, the future communication needs of aging
16、 society satisfaction problem. In 2028, the aging problem will be more serious, because the elderly in the ability to understand than the poor young man, the future how to meet the communication needs a large number of the elderly, including communication tools, information content, the elderly heal
17、th, aging on microeconomic effects, should be taken into account.Fourth, how to meet the needs of the future development of communication of microcosmic economy. Social economic operation after 20 years may change a lot, such as work allocation and payment methods are very different and now, great c
18、hanges that will bring technology, society and regulation, will affect a series field. Therefore, the communication industry needs to understand and adapt to social changes of microcosmic economy.Fifth, the communication industry is committed to reducing the energy consumption. The energy problem in
19、 the next 20 years will be more prominent, has become a major social problem, so the communication industry must pay close attention, it is necessary to consider the communication field energy use, distribution to industrial energy consumption, find can reduce the energy consumption in hand, but als
20、o concern about the industry situation, analysis of digital economy and communication technology areas in which implementation can greatly reduce energy consumption.Sixth, the digital access to the universal service. Ofcom should understand the demand for digital access and services, across geograph
21、ical and social sectors, to find the implementation of every citizen to universal access.译文：未来无线通信发展趋势近日，英国Ofcom发布题为未来无线通信发展趋势的研讨报告，提出在2028年前通信发展要解决的六个重要问题，为今后一段时间英国通信业的发展指明了方向。1、全方位综合考虑 这份报告是在2008年底Ofcom召开的“未来无线通信发展趋势”专题研讨会基础上进行整理的结果，参与研讨会的10多位成员均是通信相关领域的专家和资深人士，包括剑桥等几所英国著名大学的教授，BBC广播研究和创新部门的负责人，微软
22、的高级研究人员，BT、沃达丰、Orange等通信巨头的战略研究人员等。 Ofcom举办这次专题研讨会的目的在于，确定未来1020年最重要的通信技术，分析这些技术发展和新业务应用可能带来的利益、关键点、主要障碍点和时间表，确定Ofcom未来研发工作的重点。这次研讨会并没有局限于通信领域进行纯技术性的讨论，而是从社会、环境和经济三个更广的维度入手，分析在宏观环境下通信业应朝什么方向发展。专家们认为，未来的1020年，社会的各个领域都将发生一些巨大变化，其中社会发展趋势主要表现在如下方面：人们压缩对汽车的开支、机器人得到更广泛的运用、人类仿生学发展、城市化趋势明显、特大城市增多、诚信问题严重、在家办
23、公更为普遍。环境趋势表现在以下方面：生态工厂普及、更多公司承诺应用可再生资源、呼吸新鲜空气成为新的需求。经济趋势表现在：世界更加开放、人类对IP进行再思考、水资源供应日益紧张、经济危机仍然存在、数据中心的隐性成本较高。变化给社会带来的机会主要有五个方面：从人们找工作到工作找人;机器人让人们有了更多休闲时间，但人们可能没有足够的现金来支撑;特大城市的增加使得人们必须从盐水和污染水源中净化可饮用水;大型远程数据中心被小型、本地化和高灵活性的数据中心替代。挑战同样存在，主要表现在以下方面：城市和农村差距越来越大;贫困、老年人口增多，社会退休金储备不足;在发达国家，经济压力使得大多数人要工作到70岁;
24、知识产权不再能卖到钱，人们认为应该免费享受;油价上升限制人们旅行，越来越多的人选择在家办公。此外，20年后的社会还会面临这样一些问题：环境压力威胁经济稳定发展;能源消费问题日益突出，对能源使用的限制会增加。Ofcom要求专家们选出2018年和2028年全社会分别面临的最主要的机会和挑战，重点是说明这些机会和挑战如何影响世界，而不是怎么解决这些问题，其结果如表所示。2、确立六大关注领域根据前述分析，专家们讨论并建议Ofcom在未来1020年内将研发关注重点集中在以下几个问题。第一，IP/NGN后时代的网络结构和协议问题。IP由于是按比特进行传输，在能源消耗方面效率较低，同时IP地址资源终究会面临
25、枯竭，因此IP/NGN并非最理想的通信模式，Ofcom必须思考未来代替IP/NGN的是什么。第二，新的通信衡量分析手段。现有的对通信的衡量分析手段太过狭窄和简单，未来应以新的工具和方法来衡量通信，需考虑各方面的影响，包括成本、通信量、能源的消耗、社会利益、环境的影响等。第三，未来老龄化社会的通信需求满足问题。2028年，老龄化问题会更加严重，由于老年人在理解能力方面较年轻人差，未来用什么来满足大批老年人的通信需求，包括通信工具、信息内容制作、老年人的健康医疗、老龄化对微观经济的影响等，都应纳入考虑。第四，通信如何适应未来微观经济的发展需求。20年后的社会微观经济运作可能发生很大的变化，例如工作分配和报酬支付方式与现在可能有很大的不同，这会带来技术、社会以及管制规则的巨大改变，会影响一系列领域。因此，通信业需要深刻理解并适应社会微观经济的变化。第五，通信业如何致力于减少能源消耗。能源问题在未来20年中会更加突出，成为社会的首要问题，因此通信业必须对此紧密关注，既要考虑通信领域本身的能源使用问题，搞清产业内能源消耗的分布情况，找出可以降低能源消耗的入手点，又要关注产业外的情况，分析数字经济和通信技术在哪些领域实施可以更大程度地减少能源消耗。第六，数字接入的普遍服务问题。Ofcom应理解人们对数字接入和服务的需求，跨越地理和社会界别，找到实现每一位公民普遍接入的办法。