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1、毕 业 设 计（论 文）外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文译文题目： 关于我国企业财务预警系统构建的的论述 学生姓名： 刘鸿焕 学号： 0701111037 专业： 07会计（2）班 所在学院： 商学院 指导教师： 朱丽莉 职称： 讲师 2011年 03 月 09 日说明：要求学生结合毕业设计（论文）课题参阅一篇以上的外文资料,并翻译至少一万印刷符（或译出3千汉字）以上的译文。译文原则上要求打印（如手写,一律用400字方格稿纸书写）,连同学校提供的统一封面及英文原文装订,于毕业设计（论文）工作开始后2周内完成,作为成绩考核的一部分。Discussion on the Construction
2、of financialearly-warning system of EnterprisesKrier,James E. & Gregory S. Alexander Management World Journal,Princeton （2006）N.J.: Princeton University Press.Abstract: There are many reasons for enterprises to have the financial crisis. But we can warn the various risks of business operations and f
3、inancial activities timely with the financial early warning system, and effectively take the necessary improvements to achieve the purpose of risk prevention, so that enterprises are able to compete with others in an invincible position in the future.Key Words: financial early-warning, financial ear
4、ly-warning system, qualitative financial early-warning Nowadays, in such an era with rapidly changing and intense competition, it is difficult to accurately predict the sudden change of economic environment and market situation. Furthermore, the inadequate management systems and the influence of the
5、 quality and decision-making ability of managers make various business and financial risks to be an objective reality. Therefore, enterprises must establish effective financial early warning system to promptly alert business and financial activities of the various risk factors, and take the necessar
6、y measures for improvement effectively. It will be the key factor for enterprise been advantageous in future competition. Enterprise financial warning, which is also known as financial failure-forewarning, means an enterprise proceeding a series of effective monitoring against the risk of financial
7、deterioration to obliges and investors. The purpose of this warning is to analyze management failure, survey enterprise financial crisis and adjust itself, all keeping to the law of contradictory movement about financial safety.Financial warning is a system of financial analysis. It will inform the
8、proprietor and other party interested through analyzing business data and financial statements, using timely financial figures and the methods of relative management. Whats more, it will raise the reasons of financial crisis and problems that hiding in the financing service to forecast possible fina
9、ncial risk. The importance of this system is advising hazardous conditions early and also analyzing specifically, that is to propose a counterplan.I. Establish system policy1. Scientificalness. It should be followed during all the warning process that is information management, methods choosing, and
10、 every link.2. Systematicness, which requires the enterprise as a whole. On the one hand, there may exist potential risk when every link has bad management; on the other hand, comprehensive and serious analysis is needed when facing possible enterprise risk, as it can reflect bad conditions truly. 3
11、. Perspectiveness which asks the warning system having a function of forecasting future value, but not only doing evaluation against the business results and responsibilities. 4. Economy. Besides its functions, we should consider the rationality when establish enterprise financial warning system. It
12、 is required that value of warning information must higher than inputting information.II. Qualitative warning investigation Qualitative warning investigation includes following well-received methods:1. Standard investigation method, which also called risk analysis method. It is a way to investigate
13、and analyze possible facing problems by professionals and consulting companies and documented for enterprise operators reference. At the meanwhile, these standard problems are index of financial warning. However, the major shortcoming is unavailable to giving specific question, so it could not find
14、personality characteristics of every different enterprise.2. Analysis of “Three Months capital turnover”. Judgment of financial position is made in accordance with “Three Months capital turnover”. Enterprise always confronts with changeable financial environment; therefore, a good preparation of cap
15、ital turnover is typical essentially. If this can not be done, then this enterprise is in a tension state.3. Assessment method, proposed by Renhan Agidy , which is based on a premise: enterprise failure stems from senior management. He had investigated features of enterprise management and defects w
16、hich may occur bankrupt, as well as contrasted and graded these failures and defects. There were only full marks or zero marks when he evaluated business managements. The figures he gave were shown the condition of its management, the higher, the worse. A safe mark is less than 18; if evaluated grad
17、e surpassed 35, which means the enterprise in serious crisis. Thus, the marks between 18 and 35 constitute a “black zone” in business management. If ones grade is in “black zone”, he should be on the alert to take effective measures to reduce his mark. It is an easy method to make evaluation easier,
18、 which tries to change qualitative investigation into quantification. However, the grade giver should have a specific realization on enterprise operator; otherwise the effect will not be good. Unless doing in-depth investigation on business management, an objective grade can be given.III. The financ
19、ial affairs warning system framework established1. Financial information collection, transmission mechanismGood financial early-warning system must be based on a large number of data statistic analysis of the foundation,Includes not only the internal financial information, including external related
20、 information,The key is,System information has to be continuously updated, Information system should be constantly upgraded to make sure the timeliness, accuracy and validity of financial information. Because the current information technology is widely used in development and changed the traditiona
21、l financial reporting models for information processing time is long, huge information use relative lag shortcomings, realizes real-time transmission and always check and convenient new data transmission mode. Group company policymakers can Understand and monitoring the financial information of the
22、company to understand this enterprises financial position and operating results of an enterprise in time,and still can always check industry information and the related enterprise stakeholders of information so that we can realize the companys position in competition omni-directionally to formulate
23、really feasible competition development strategy. At the same time, in financial warning information systems,enterprise information between the various functional departments may be connected, understand the enterprise possible risk of weak links, from the root management to realize resource configu
24、ration optimization.2. Financial prewarning organization The agency is relatively independent of enterprises and dont intervene directly in the production and operation of enterprises management and only to the enterprise top management is responsible, members are consists ofbusiness operators and t
25、he enterprise internal management business, with familiar management experience and technical management personnel. When constructing financial prewarning organization, we should ensure financial warning analysis work can be implemented and not affected by other organizations of interference and inf
26、luence. Its advantage is conducive to ensuring company financial warning monitoring of independence and can sectors the provide financial could face crisis report and from the overall grasp the company financial prewarning work to provide true basis for policy makers; Defect is set of conditions is
27、higher and the agency functions with finance department part function repetition, such organization setup repetition can cause certain waste and the starting point of the two departments analysis is different may cause possible conclusion will not consistent, thus will mislead leadership making deci
28、sions and Unfavorable to work to continue the development. So in the financial department in establishing the specialist is responsible financial prewarning work and arrange full-time financial warning personnel implementation technical analysis function ,the company senior leaders participation gui
29、dance to make financial prewarning personnel only for management is responsible meanwhile may at any time according to need improving necessary data to reduce the interest relationship with the financial department, Thus in a certain extent improve financial warning function of independence.3. Analy
30、sis Mechanism of Financial Risk A high efficient analysis mechanism of financial risk is the core and key of financial early-warning system. It can eliminate quickly the Influencing on finance. After emphasis studied, analyses the reasons for the risks and estimates the possible loss. And it is not
31、difficult to make related measures. Analysis mechanism of financial mainly including raise funds risk analysis, investment risk analysis and capital reclaiming risk analysis. (1) The key point of raise funds risk analysis is to analyze if the capital structure is reasonable, if the fund procurement
32、is effective, if the efficiency of fund utilization if positive, etc.(2) The key point of investment risk analysis is to analyze if the investment proposals is workable, if the investment portfolio is reasonable, if the benefits of individual investment or the possibility of the whole benefits of in
33、vestment portfolio departs from the expected result, the pre-tax profit margins that resulted by different factors, and the risks in the rate of return on investment changes, etc. (3) The key point of capital reclaiming risk analysis is to analyze if the ability to pay debt and credit reliability of
34、 customers are able to guarantee the returns on capital, if the credit policy of enterprises are able to ensure call in capital timely, if it chooses the proper sale means and settlement procedures through analyze the possibility of the customers terminal repayment, etc. In conclusion,to make the ea
35、rly warning systems of enterprises play a role timely and effectively requires financial early warning system not only to provide internal and external information but also requires it to have a perfect mechanism of conduction of information and an organization for dealing with crisis as well as an
36、effective analysis mechanism of financial risk and risk-handling mechanism. That should be only the way to make the early warning system be effective, timely find out and guard against risks, to ensure the normal management and production, and to help the enterprise stay on top of the increasingly k
37、een competition.References: 1 Cornell, Drucilla , 1998. Reflectionon the Financial Problems in the Course of Enterprise System Reform. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. 2 Herzog, M.J., & Cooney, T.M. 2002. Discussion on Questions of Non-finance Information Existing in Advance Warning of F
38、inancial Risk. Economic Research, 36, 89-110.3 Martin D & Martin M. 2003. Study on the Problems of the Financial Statement in Business Combination, 359368.4 Brantley A, Knox D. & Zusman ME. 2002. Financial Market and Integrated Governance. Management World Journal, 614-615.5 Westermarck, Edvard, 192
39、1. Analysis and Prevention of Financial Risk.Volume 1, 71; Westermarck ,1936. Accounting Research, 23. 关于我国企业财务预警系统构建的的论述Krier, James E. & Gregory S. AlexanderManagement World Journal,Princeton（2006）N.J.: Princeton University Press摘 要企业产生财务危机的原因是多方面的,我们可以通过财务预警系统,来及时警示企业经营和财务活动中的各种风险因素,并有效采取必要的改进措施,
40、从而达到防范风险的目的,使企业在未来的竞争中立于不败之地。关键词：财务预警；财务预警系统；定性财务预警在目前这样一个瞬息万变和竞争激烈的时代,经济环境和市场风云的突变往往是很难被准确地预测的,再加上管理制度的不完善和管理者素质及决策能力的影响,使得企业的各种经营和财务风险就成为一种客观的存在,因此,企业必须建立行之有效的财务预警系统,来及时警示企业经营和财务活动中的各种风险因素,并有效采取必要的改进措施,使企业在未来的竞争中立于不败之地。所谓企业财务预警,即财务失败预警,是指通过企业日常财务运行情况进行连续有效的监测,来防范企业财务恶化给债权人和投资者造成的损失。企业财务预警是从财务角度研究企
41、业预警,遵循着企业财务安全机理的矛盾运动规律,即分析导致企业失败的管理失误和波动,运用财务安全指标来预测企业财务危机,并不断调整自身达到摆脱财务困境的目的。财务预警系统就是通过对企业财务报表及相关经营资料的分析,利用及时的财务数据和相应的数据化管理方式,将企业所面临的危险情况预先告知企业经营者和其他利益关系人,并分析企业发生财务危机的原因和企业财务运营体系隐藏的问题,以提早做好防范措施的财务分析系统。企业财务预警系统,是指对企业的各种财务活动进行监测,预报财务危机发生的可能性,诊断诱发财务危机的原因并寻求对策加以治理的系统。该系统贯穿于经营活动的全过程,以企业的信息化为基础,对经营管理活动中的
42、潜在风险进行监控,利用及时的财务数据和相应的数据化管理方式,预先告知企业所面临的危险情况,同时分析企业发生财务危机的原因,发现企业财务运营体系隐藏的问题,以提早做好防范措施并提出相应的排警对策。一、构建财务预警系统原则（一）、科学性。要求在企业财务预警的全过程,即信息管理、财务预警方法的选择、预警的程序等各个环节都必须遵循科学原则。（二）、系统性。要求把企业作为一个整体来考虑。一方面,企业经营的每个环节如果管理不当,都有可能潜在危机；另一方面,对企业可能面临的风险,以及影响风险的各因素都必须进行全面的把握和认真的分析,这样才能全面真实的反映企业的风险程度。（三）、前瞻性。要求财务预警系统必须具
43、有预测未来价值的功能,而不是对企业过去的经营成果和受托管理责任履行情况做出考核评价。（四）、经济性。企业财务预警系统建立时,除了要考虑它的作用外,还应分析它在经济上的合理性。即要求该预测系统产生预警信息的价值必须大于产生信息的投入。二、定性财务预警分析定性预警分析己有的并广为接受的方法主要包括以下几种方法：（一）、标准化调查法标准化调查法又称风险分析调查法,即通过专业人员、咨询公司等,就企业可能遇到的问题加以详细的调查和分析,形成报告文件供企业经营者参考的方法。此时这些标准化的问题就是财务预警的指标即警兆。这种方法的主要缺点是对特定企业来说无法提供特定问题,无法发现一些企业的个性特征。（二）、
44、“三个月资金周转表”分析法这种方法下,判断企业财务状况好坏的依据是“三个月资金周转表”的制定。这种方法的实质是企业面临着变幻无穷的的理财环境,所以要经常准备好安全度较高的资金周转表,假如连这种应当办到的事也做不到,就说明这个企业已经处于紧张状态了。（三）、管理评分法这是由美国的仁翰.阿吉蒂提出的。这种评分法是基于这样一个前提:企业的失败源于企业的高级管理层。仁翰.阿吉蒂调查了企业的管理特性以及可能导致破产的公司缺陷,对这些缺陷、错误和征兆进行了对比打分,还根据这几项对破产过程产生影响的大小程度对他们做了加权处理,用管理评分法对企业经营管理进行评估时,每一项得分要么是零分要么是满分,不容许给中间
45、分。所给的分数表明了管理不善的程度,按照各项进行打分,分数越高,则企业的处境越差。企业的安全得分一般小于18分；如果评价的分数总计超过35分,就表明企业正处于严重的危机之中。因此在1835分之间构成企业管理的一个“黑色区域”。如果企业所得总分位于“黑色区域”之内,企业就必须提高警惕,迅速采取有效措施,使总分数降到18分的安全区域以内这种管理评分法简明易懂,试图把定性分析定量化,但是其效果取决于评分者是否对被评分公司及其管理者有准确的了解。只有对企业进行深入细致的调查,全面了解企业管理的各个方面,才能对企业的管理进行客观的评分。三、企业财务预警系统架构的建立（一）、财务信息收集、传递机制良好的财
46、务预警系统必须建立在对大量资料统计分析的基础之上,不仅包括内部财务信息,还包括外部相关信息,最为关键的是,系统信息要不断刷新,资料系统要不断升级,确保财务信息和及时性、准确性和有效性。由于当前信息技术广泛运用于发展,改变了传统的财务报告模式因信息量巨大处理时间长,信息使用相对滞后缺点,实现了实时传输、随时查看,方便快捷的新的数据传输模式。集团公司决策者可随时对本单位财务信息进行了解、监控,及时了解本企业财务状况和经营成果,并且还可以随时查看行业内部信息以及与本企业相关的利益相关者的信息,从全方位对本公司在竞争中所处的地位进行跟进了解,制定出确实可行的竞争发展策略。同时,在财务预警信息系统下,企
47、业各职能部门之间信息得以相互连接,随时了解本企业可能出现风险的薄弱环节,从根源进行治理,实现资源配置最优化。（二）、财务预警组织机构该机构相对独立于企业,不直接干涉企业的生产经营管理,只对企业最高管理层负责,成员由企业经营者及企业内部熟悉管理业务、具有经营管理经验和技术的管理人员组成。在建立财务预警组织机构时,应确保财务预警分析的工作能够有专人落实,且不受其他组织机构的干扰和影响,其优点是有利于保证公司财务预警监测的独立性,可以实事求是的提供财务可能面临的危机报告,从总体上把握公司财务预警工作,为决策者提供真实依据；缺点是设置的条件较高,并且该机构职能与财务部门部分职能重复,这样机构设置重复会
48、造成一定的浪费,而且两个部门分析的出发点不同,可能出现的结论会不一致,从而会误导领导层作出决策,不利于工作的持续开展。因此在财务部门中设立专人负责财务预警工作,安排专职的财务预警人员实施技术性分析职能,公司高层领导参与指导,使财务预警人员只对管理层负责,同时可以根据需要随时提高必要数据,减少他与财务部门的利益关系,从而在一定程度上提高财务预警职能的独立性。（三）、财务风险分析机制高效的财务风险分析机制是财务预警系统的核心和关键,通过财务风险分析迅速排除对财务影响小的风险。经重点研究,分析出风险的成因,评估其可能造成的损失。当风险的成因分析清楚后,也就不难制定相应的措施了。财务风险分析机制主要包括:筹资风险分析、投资风险分析、资金回收风险分析。1、筹资风险分析的重点在于分析资本结构是否合理、资金调度是否有效、资金使用效益是否确定等；2、投资风险分析的重点在于分析投资方案是否可行、投