《论文（设计）-基于偏最小二乘回归分析的试验装备修理成本预测37194.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《论文（设计）-基于偏最小二乘回归分析的试验装备修理成本预测37194.doc（15页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、专业好文档2010-12题录英译集*基于偏最小二乘回归分析的试验装备修理成本预测张翀1，郑绍钰2，王璐璐3（1. 装备指挥技术学院 研究生管理大队，北京 101416；2. 装备指挥技术学院 装备采办系，北京 101416；3. 中国民航大学 电子信息工程学院，天津 300300）摘要：为了科学预测试验装备修理成本，提高维修经费决策质量，引入偏最小二乘回归分析（Partial Least Squares Regression, PLSR）对试验装备修理成本进行预测。针对试验装备修理成本小样本、贫数据、特征量相关性强的不利条件，构建预测模型；基于以往数次大修相关数据，预测试验专用装备使用期的某次
2、大修成本。同时，为保持模型的稳健性，提高模型解释能力和预测精确度，尝试利用变量投影重要性分析对模型进行优化，取得了较好的效果。实例证明，该方法不仅能在多变量间存在严重多重相关性情况下建立模型，而且能够有效筛选与因变量关系不大的自变量，简化输入样本集。关键词：偏最小二乘回归分析；试验装备；修理成本；预测；变量投影重要性分析 Forecast of Tentative Equipment Repair Cost Based on Partial Least Squares RegressionZhang Chong1, Zheng Shaoyu2, Wang Lulu3(1. Administra
3、nt Brigade of Postgraduate, Institute of Command & Technology of Equipment, Beijing 101416, China;2. Dept. of Equipment Acquisition, Institute of Command & Technology of Equipment, Beijing 101416, China;3. College of Electronic Information Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300
4、300, China)Abstract: In order to forecast tentative equipments repair cost scientifically, and improve the decision-making quality of maintenance outlay, partial least squares regression (PLSR) is introduced to forecast tentative equipments repair cost. Aiming at the limitation of tentative equipmen
5、t repair costs small sample, inadequate statistics, close relative eigenvector, forecasting model is constructed; based on several heavy repair data before, the heavy repair cost of special tentative equipment in use is forecasted. Meanwhile, it has the good effect to attempt optimizing the model by
6、 using variable importance in projection (VIP) in order to keep the models stability and improve its explaining ability and forecasting accuracy. It is proved by examples that this method can not only construct models in the case that high multi-correlation exist between variables, but also filter e
7、ffectively independent variable which is of little relation to dependent variable, and simplify sample set.Keywords: partial least squares regression; tentative equipment; repair costs; forecast; variable importance in projection*基于保障场的装备保障力量适应配置模型古平1,2，葛涛1，籍宝林2（1. 军械工程学院 装备指挥与管理系，河北 石家庄 050003；2. 石
8、家庄陆军指挥学院 军队指挥系，河北 石家庄 050084）摘要：针对装备保障需求和环境的复杂不确定性特征，从相似性角度引入保障场的思维与方法，提出基于保障场势的作用范围划分方法，在此基础上构建了装备保障力量的适应性配置模型，重点从场理论中势能的角度对保障力量的适应配置进行分析。结果表明，该模型可使配置过程更具交互性和灵活性，对装备保障辅助决策具有一定参考价值和指导意义。关键词：适应配置；保障力量；保障场；Voronoi图Adaptive Allocation of Equipment Support Force Based on Support FieldGu Ping1,2, Ge Tao1
9、, Ji Baolin2(1. Dept. of Equipment Command & Management, Ordnance Engineering College, Shijiazhuang 050003, China; 2. Dept. of Army Command, Shijiazhuang Army Command College, Shijiazhuang 050084, China)Abstract: According to complexity and uncertainty of support requirements and environment, introd
10、uces the concepts of support field from the point of view of comparability, puts forward a method about partitioning service range of equipment support force based on support field potential, analyzes adaptive allocation of equipment support by way of potential energy and establishes the adaptive al
11、location model of equipment support force. The result shows the model has more adaptive and flexible for allocation and provides reference value and direction to some extent for command decision of equipment support. Keywords: adaptive allocation; support force; support field; Voronoi diagram*装备维修保障
12、效能评估指标权重组合赋权法的研究舒正平1，周盛华2（1. 装备指挥技术学院 装备指挥系装备维修教研室，北京 101416；2. 装备指挥技术学院 士官系基础教研室，北京 101416）摘要：针对现有的主观赋权法、客观赋权法的各自优缺点，提出基于最小二乘法原理的组合赋权法思想。利用利差函数与目标规划方法得到了组合赋权法唯一最优存在定理；使用高等数学、线性代数等知识证明了定理的存在性及唯一最优性，并给出了组合赋权的表达式。该方法将主观权重与客观权重加权综合起来，使效能评估的分析结果同时反应了主观意愿和客观情况，为效能评估结果的可靠性与准确性打下了基础。关键词：效能评估；指标权重；组合赋权法Stud
13、y on Equipment Maintenance Support Performance Evaluation Index Weights of Combination Weighting MethodShu Zhengping1, Zhou Shenghua2(1. Staff Room of Equipment Maintenance of Dept. of Equipment Command, Institute of Command & Technology of Equipment, Beijing 101416, China; 2. Staff Room of Basic Th
14、eories of Dept. of Officers, Institute of Command & Technology of Equipment, Beijing 101416, China)Abstract: Aiming at subjective weighting and objective weighting for the existing law, the respective advantages and disadvantages, put forward based on least square theory combination weighting method
15、 thinking. Spread function and the use of goal programming method to get the optimal combination weighting method the only existence theorems; use of advanced mathematics, linear algebra and other knowledge to prove the theorem of existence and uniqueness of optimal, and gives the combination weight
16、ing expression. The method of subjective and objective weight weighted weights together, so performance evaluation results will also reflect the subjective and objective conditions for the performance evaluation results of the reliability and accuracy of the foundation.Keywords: performance evaluati
17、on; weights of index; combination weighting method*基于三维地理信息的坦克炮火控优化方法刘彦君，黄金才，朱承（国防科学技术大学 信息系统工程重点实验室，湖南 长沙 410073）摘要：为提高复杂地理环境下的坦克火炮打击效能，研究三维数字地理信息支持下坦克炮火控优化方法。在目标点位置已知时提出基于遗传算法的最佳射角反解算法；通过插值求出弹落点圆概率误差，在此基础上构造落点CEP解算模型，提出基于三维数字地理信息的最优火力点选择模型，并进行案例分析。结果表明，该方法弹道模型精确，完成火力点的选择平均仅需34 s，可作为坦克火炮火控的辅助决策手段。关
18、键词：遗传算法；最佳射角；火力点优化选择；三维地理信息An Optimization Method for Tank Gun Based on 3D Geographic InformationLiu Yanjun, Huang Jincai, Zhu Cheng(Information System Engineering Key Lab, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)Abstract: In order to improve hit potency of tank guns in sop
19、histicated topography, this paper has researched the optimize method of tank guns with 3D geographic information. With the information of target position, the paper advanced an algorithm of optimal angle of fire based on GA. Then it solved out the CEP of the point of fall through interpolation in or
20、der to build the model of it. Ultimately, it advanced the model of alternative optimal fire point based on 3D geographic information. Meanwhile, we proved the feasibility and validity through analyzing a case. It turned out that this method has an accurate ballistic model and accomplishes option of
21、fire points within 34s medially, which can be a tool of paramilitary decision-making.Keywords: GA; optimal angle of fire; optimize fire point; 3D geographic information*一种新的飞机系统可靠性分配方法商兴华1，韩维2，李成1，董万里1（1. 海军航空工程学院 研究生管理大队，山东 烟台 264001；2. 海军航空工程学院 7系，山东 烟台 264001）摘要：针对现有可靠性分配方法存在的不足，在基于权重值分配方法的基础上引入约
22、束条件，提出一种兼具无约束可靠性分配方法和约束可靠性分配方法特点的新的可靠性分配方法。通过探讨该方法的可行性，建立其可靠性分配的数学模型，并将该模型应用于飞机系统的可靠性分配中。结果表明，该方法能较好体现2类方法的特点，减少飞机系统的成本费用。关键词：飞机系统；可靠性分配；权重；费用约束A New Method of Reliability Allocation of Airplane SystemShang Xinghua1, Han Wei2, Li Cheng1, Dong Wanli1(1. Administrant Brigade of Postgraduate, Naval Aer
23、onautical & Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, China;2. No. 7 Department, Naval Aeronautical & Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, China)Abstract: In the light of disadvantages of the method of reliability allocation existing, constraints was introduced into the reliability allocation bas
24、ed on weight, and a new reliability optimal allocation method was presented which had both the characteristics of reliability allocation model without constraints and reliability allocation model with constraints of cost. By disusing the feasibility of the method, a corresponding mathematical model
25、was conceived and applied to reliability allocation of airplane system. The result shows that the new method can reflect the characteristics of the two methods and reduce the cost of reliability design of airplane system.Keywords: airplane system; reliability allocation; weight; constraints of cost*
26、通用飞机航迹生成技术苏春梅，冯朝阳，王力军（中国人民解放军63680部队 技术部，江苏 江阴 214431）摘要：为建立逼真空情，实现复杂空袭动作模拟的正确性，建立飞机目标典型航迹模型并进行仿真。分析了飞机目标运动航迹及其特点，给出了七种典型的、通用的飞机目标运动航迹想定设计方法和数学模型，对飞机航迹生成仿真实现的流程和几项关键技术进行分析并给出了解决方法。仿真应用证明，该方法是正确和有效的，并已应用到实际操作中。关键词：飞机航迹；航迹模拟；想定编辑；数学模型Automatic Creating Technique of Universal Flight TrackSu Chunmei, Fe
27、ng Zhaoyang, Wang Lijun(Dept. of Test Technology, No. 63680 Unit of PLA, Jiangyin 214431, China)Abstract: In order to set up the virtual air simulation, and realize the correctness of complex air-attacking action simulation, the paper designs the typical flight target track model and performs the si
28、mulating of flight. Analyzing moving track and characteristics of flight target, seven kinds of typical and universal scenario design method and mathematical model are given to describe flight track of moving target. At the same time, analyses the process flow of flight track simulation, and provide
29、 resolve method of several key technique for flight track simulation. Practice proves that the model and method show correct and good effect in Simulation application.Keywords: flight track; track simulation; scenario; mathematical model*基于综合集成赋权法的灰色局势决策董鹏1,2，吴婉秋3，罗朝晖1（1. 海军工程大学 管理工程系，湖北 武汉 430033；2
30、. 华中科技大学 管理学院，湖北 武汉 430074；3. 武汉市发展和改革委员会，湖北 武汉 430014）摘要：针对传统灰色局势决策将各指标等权划分不合理问题，提出综合集成赋权法。通过主观赋权法将决策者的偏好反映在权重的计算之中，将主客观赋权法相结合，对主观赋权法、客观赋权法和综合集成赋权法进行比较分析。结果表明，该方法能很好解决决策过程中主观与客观相统一的问题，综合集成赋权法能达到更满意的效果。关键词：权重；灰色局势决策；熵Grey Decision-Making Based on Synthesized and Integration WeighingDong Peng1,2, Wu
31、Wanqiu3, Luo Zhaohui1(1. Dept. of Management Science, Naval Univ. of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China; 2. School of Management, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China; 3. Wuhan Municipal Development & Reform Commission, Wuhan 430014, China)Abstract: In order to solve the ir
32、rationality problem of equal weighing in grey decision-making, the paper put forward synthesized and integration weighing method. Adding the decision makers inclination into the process of weighing making by using subjective method and uniting subjectivity and objectivity, this method compares with
33、another two-subjective and objective weighing making. Result indicates that synthesized and integration weighing method can solve the uniting problem of subjective and objective during the decision making process, and an even more satisfactory effect can be achieved by this method. Keywords: weighin
34、g; grey-decision making; entropy*弹载电子干扰机作战效能仿真评估罗波，毕义明，李马戍（第二炮兵工程学院 基础部，陕西 西安 710025）摘要：为评估弹载干扰机的作战效能，在干扰评估准则的基础上，建立干扰、探测模型，通过分析反导系统于目标导弹之间的关系，提出最小干扰距离指标，并对几种典型反导武器系统的探测雷达进行干扰效果仿真计算，分析其在最小干扰距离指标下的干信比，得出弹载干扰机的作战效能。该研究对现代高技术战争条件下导弹攻防对抗具有实际意义和应用价值。关键词：干扰；弹载干扰机；最小干扰距离；突防Simulation Evaluation for Combat
35、Efficiency of Jammer Fixed in MissileLuo Bo, Bi Yiming, Li Mashu(Dept. of Basic Theories, Second Artillery Engineering College, Xian 710025, China)Abstract: To assess the efficiency of jammer fixed in missile, establishment interference and detect model on the basis of assessment criteria interferen
36、ce, by analyzing the relationship between antiballistic system and missile, bring forward an index of the minimum interference distance, according to simulation a few typical systems radar, analyze the sir signal to interference ratio from the index to give the Effectiveness of the jammer. The resea
37、rch has certain practical significance and applicative value in the missile attack-defense on modern high technology war conditions Keywords: interference; jammer fixed in missile; minimum interference distance; penetration*基于云理论的坦克目标价值评估孟强，徐克虎，李科（装甲兵工程学院 控制工程系，北京 100072）摘要：为了对坦克目标价值进行合理的评估，建立坦克目标价值
38、的评估模型。将其评价指标分为数值型与语言型，构造一种新的转换方法将数值型指标归一化；通过云理论，构建语言型指标的评价规则及其前后件云模型，采用云的不确定性推理算法实现了将定性语言定量化的合理转换；将2类指标加权融合，得出了合理的目标价值排序。结果表明，该方法科学、合理、实用，在坦克指控系统中有较好的应用前景。关键词：目标价值；云理论；云推理；评估Evaluation of Tank Targets Value Based on Cloud TheoryMeng Qiang, Xu Kehu, Li Ke(Dept. of Control Engineering, Academy of Armo
39、red Force Engineering, Beijing 100072, China)Abstract: In order to evaluate the tank targets value reasonably, the evaluate model of tank target is built. The indexes are separated into two kinds: quantificational indexes and linguistic indexes. A new conversion method is used to normalize the quant
40、ificational index. The cloud model of evaluation rules about linguistic index are built through cloud theory, and then translate the qualitative linguistic words into quantitative values with uncertain illation. Thus the sequence of target value is obtained by calculating the evaluation value combin
41、ed with the weight of the indexes. Finally, a practical example shows that this method is scientific, reasonable, in accordance with the practical situation and has better application foreground in tank command control system.Keywords: target value; cloud theory; cloud illation; evaluation*加强部队装备管理创
42、新的思考陆凡1，刘文超2（1. 装备指挥技术学院 装备指挥系，北京 101416；2. 第二炮兵工程技术总队 装备部，河南 洛阳 471031）摘要：随着我军装备建设实现历史性突破，装备体系结构重大改善，急需把握新时期装备管理工作的特点和规律，树立管理创新意识，探索管理创新途径，实现部队装备管理的不断创新。在深刻认识部队装备管理创新必要性的基础上，深入分析部队装备管理创新面临的理论研究亟待深入、运行机制亟待理顺、方法手段亟待改进、队伍素质亟待加强、信息化程度亟待提高等主要问题，进而提出了加强部队装备管理创新的总体思路与对策措施。加强部队装备管理创新，必将全面提高部队装备管理水平，进而提升战斗力
43、。关键词：部队装备管理；管理创新；部队装备管理创新Thinking on Strengthening Army Equipment Management InnovationLu Fan1, Liu Wenchao2(1. Dept. of Equipment & Command, Institute of Command & Technology of Equipment, Beijing 101416, China;2. Dept. of Equipment, Chief Engineering Technology Troop of Second Artillery, Luoyang 4
44、71031, China)Abstract: As the equipment development achieved a historical breakthrough, the equipment system structure gained an important improvement; it is in extreme need of grasping the characteristic and rule of the equipment management, erecting the innovation consciousness, and exploring the
45、innovation method, so as to achieve the innovation of army equipment management. On the basis of comprehending prerequisite of army equipment management innovation, the primary questions of army equipment management innovation, such as theory research, operation mechanism, measures and means, person
46、nel diathesis and informational degree, are analyzed in-depth. And that the holistic scheme and the countermeasure about strengthening army equipment management innovation are brought forward. Intensifying the equipment management innovation, would consequentially enhance the equipment management level, thereby improve the action ability.Keywords: army equipment management; management innovation; army equipment management innovat