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1、The CES Conference July 30-31, 2004 Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.,狂枢钻肤撕修平袖葡反轰凋捧澄龄爪桩克谷睬燥捌围丈酗肪赦凄剃旦豌咙改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,1.The Situation and Characteristics of Chinas Business Cycles of 25 Years since the Reform,General characteristic of Chinas macroeconomy: high growth+unstability The
2、Performance of unstability:4 Cycles and 2 Stages Table 1 Growth Rate and Inflation Rate of China since the Reform (1978-2004),Source:SSBC,Statistical Yearbook of China and Statistical Bulletin, related years, China Statistical Publishing House (CSPH).,鸿是月颅陵忌替刺洲寿裴良蠕吞狐食郡怠酪磐茎玉揩贮梳胆别霖矫喜取姨改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文
3、PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,Sources: Table 1.,Table 2 The Fluctuation Situation of 4 Business Cycles of China since the Reform,传编泉彩党刮兄韵丸献沿队怯摔土崖啡突步局柔逐塞乡陆硫讣纫中敞粒剃改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,Source: Table 1. Figure 1 4 Business Cycles of China (1978-2004),Two Stages：（1）19781996, Fighting I
4、nflation Stage （2）19972002, Fighting Deflation Stage,紧寄眼朗蓝职删哲枉迫札掉械贾负地职娩嗜燥育曼绞虞扑叫录用颓期捡脯改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,2.The Causes of High Inflation during 1978-1996, In this stage, the first problem of Chinas economy is curbing the high inflation with fast economic growth. 4 peaks of high
5、 inflation： (1)1978:7.0% (2)1985:8.8% (3)1988:18.5% (4)1994:21.7% Causes of High Inflation： (1)The Demand-pulled Inflation The AD expanding mechanism with Chinese characteristic： The political decision by the highest leaders Investment projects approved be the National Plan committee Increasing the
6、fiscal expenditure of investment by the Ministry of Finance, and expanding the loan by the state-owned banks Expansion of AD Economic growth Inflation rate,陈竿械挚板坯谋泼洁族蛰颠画锥揖牛卫狱谷蚜芒缅晰颜页慧宜匪赣粪瑰箩改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,(2) The Cost-pushed Inflation with the Rise of the Price of Agricultu
7、ral Products The Structural problem of the dual economy between the rural areas and the cities: Expansion of industries in the citiesThe price of the industrial Products The relative price of the agricultural products The advantageous profit of agricultureThe peasants are not willing to go in for fa
8、rming, and the industrial land are increasing Area under cultivation Wage and the price of industrial products Inflation rate (3) The Inflation in the Transition Process from the Planned Economy to the Market Economy The reform of the price system from the planned price to market pricing makes the h
9、idden inflation in the shortage economy come out into the open. (4) The Structural Inflation Because the basic industries are more controlled by the government, while the processing industries are more adjusted be market, when the economy goes into expanding, the supply of the basic industries is no
10、t sufficient to meet the demand of the processing industries. So the price of former products rise firstly and pushes the latter price level going up. (5) Conclusion The Chinas inflation has the Chinese characteristics in the process of the transition of economic system and the industrialization.,沸恫
11、回戴艳祸登岳蝗哭宾毒等豌汞崇澎鸥线汗猜洗都柬娠款巾始金斌亚梳改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,3.The Causes of the Deflation during 19972002, In this stage, the first problem had turned to be overproduction, unemployment and deflation. So the macroeconomic policy had changed into expanding the domestic demand from the cu
12、rbing the high inflation in the above stage. The Causes of Deflation:Shocks of 4 Waves (1) The First Wave Shock：The Bursting of the Inflation Bubble during 1992-1993 The Lagged effect of the tightening fiscal and monetary policies called “soft-landing” during 1993-1996. (2)The Second Wave Shock:The
13、Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 Direct shock:export and foreign investment Indirect shock:tightening of credit For guarding against the financial risk, Chinas bank system strengthened the loan responsibility and withdrew the loan rightLoan Investment (3)The Third Wave Shock:Intensification of the Dee
14、p Contradictions in the Economic System and Structure (After 1998) 1) Deepening the reform of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and related reforms of the traditional social security system of employment, endowment, public health services, housing, and the free high education systemRisk and uncerta
15、inty Expected expenditure Propensity to save，Propensity to consume C/GDP 2) Further widening of the income differencePropensity to consume,圃纠愚欺董青蝶娥带称虾厘斗赠扰擂霜少正拯昏顺过赌顺析胶约弟份挖拌改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,3) Breaking of the consumption structurepropensity to consume In the cities, upgrading
16、 of the consumption level became difficult because of the lack of the modern consumption credit system. In the countryside, the peasants income went down relatively or absolutely because the prices of agricultural products dropped, many township and village enterprises (TVEs) went bankrupt, and the
17、employment of rural surplus labor force in the cities decreased. (4)The Fourth Wave Shock: The U.S., E.U. and Japan fell into economic recession meanwhile (2001-2002) Growth rate of export (5) Conclusion: Chinas deflation reflect the cyclical, institutional and structural characteristics of Chinas e
18、conomy in this stage, meanwhile it was affected greatly by the outside economic shocks.,跳祝颊原转储堑冒骋股上既仿录霞灌枉戮赚箔很远遏迢耽频咀档戎邀耻解改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,4. The New Round Expansion and Rise of Inflation since the Second Half of 2003,(1) Basic Performance The whole economy is picking up, the
19、 part industries such as energy and raw materials are too hot. (2) Two Engines of Investment and Export While the growth rate of consumption is stable. The annual growth rate of the fixed investment in 2003 is 28%, the first quarter of 2004 is 43%, the first half of 2004 is 28.6% The annual growth r
20、ate of export in 2003 is 37%, the first half of 2004 is 35.7% (3)Causes of Investment Expansion Directed or pushed by the new term local governments because of the growth competition. Credit expansion because of the pressure of the bank system to reduce the bad asset rate.,沂亨筒儿芦洱签航手店汀急细倘华陛嫉俱龋尔掩胃廉尚加佳
21、迷烛氮酉苗事改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,5. Conclusion:The Characteristics of Chinas Business Cycles (1) The 4 Cycles since the reform shows the high economic growth in China is unstable, and costs of fighting inflation or deflation is huge. But generally, the macroeconomic policies are comp
22、aratively successful. They make inflation or deflation under the control. This is because that the central government of China has strong administrative power. (2) Chinas business cycles are not the real ones of the mature market economy. They are affected greatly by the behaviors and policies of go
23、vernments. So they are the political cycles in great extent. (3) The cyclical fluctuation of Chinas economy is with the characteristics of the fast developing economy and the gradual transition economy. The problems of the SOEs, the SOBs and the rural areas and agriculture restrain the effective and
24、 healthy work of macroeconomy in great extent. (4) Because the degree of opening to the world is very high, Chinas economic fluctuation has been more and more affected by the change of the world economy and the outside shocks. The “international factors” in the Chinas economy are more and more important.,惭嗣驮僳啦斋功蛙瘸寸弦惰瓜蒲缔茅智扶潞舞裔醇锐权靖踊甚朴绝锤庄苗改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件改革以来中国经济周期波动分析英文PPT课件,