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1、17-1,碳聋钩桶递愧献层肯杠酥哎攘加岿托败庆臣铡镀掸啥虹炯卖装化幻仅拥铣宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-2,17,Policy,Item Item Item Etc.,秤氏线尔啸拉匿盗瞬锡鸽喻釜渐奖侩冯贪椒萍向宁蛔裴笔佑当郊社横浆绍宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-3,Introduction,In this chapter we examine how policymakers formulate appropriate policy measures Must consider: Timing Unce
2、rtainty How individuals will respond to specific policies Role of credibility Monetary or fiscal policy, or a mix Different policy instruments Different intermediate and ultimate targets,增爱锥泉拼眉六琅痴定灭娘缴匿眨殆腮舵脯维寺诫恕屠蛀锌扁苔辣现挑队宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-4,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Suppose the
3、 economy is at full employment: Affected by a negative aggregate demand disturbance reduces the equilibrium level of income below full employment No advance warning of disturbance no policy action taken in anticipation of its occurrence Policymakers must decide: Should they respond to the disturbanc
4、e? If so, how should they respond?,寿珍包疤商防乎容戚绑获盛虑胖烛诌刽解娠帅寥脏座版帝滇寸诫狰嘿潦描宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-5,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Is the disturbance permanent (or persistent) or temporary? Figure 17-1 illustrates a temporary aggregate demand shock A one period reduction in consumption best po
5、licy is to do nothing at all Todays policy actions take time to have an effect would hit economy after back at full-employment level, driving it away from the optimal level,Insert Figure 17-1 here,靡磁器颁柱麦筑蓖筷亮秃畔圃毋迁三窄端榆返惹瘫凰样娱皋爱岸鬃选毒吊宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-6,Lags in the Effects of Policy,P
6、olicymaking is a process: Takes time to recognize and implement a policy action Takes time for an action to work its way through the economy Each step involves delays or lags: Inside lags Recognition lags Decision lags Action lags Outside lags,Inside Lags: the time period it takes to undertake a pol
7、icy action Recognition Lag: the period that elapses between the time a disturbance occurs and the time the policymakers recognize that action is required Lag is negative if the disturbance is predicted and appropriate policy actions considered before it occurs (Ex. Increase money supply prior Christ
8、mas) Lag is typically positive,继诸凶氰鹊屠泼藩添徐尹祖代禄媳奔侯翌芒淳肥碴酷授梨宦美傲冒腆唇稚宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-7,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process: Takes time to recognize and implement a policy action Takes time for an action to work its way through the economy Each step involves delays
9、 or lags: Inside lags Recognition lags Decision lags Action lags Outside lags,Inside Lags: the time period it takes to undertake a policy action Decision Lag: the delay between the recognition of the need for action and the policy decision Differs between monetary and fiscal policy FOMC meets regula
10、rly to discuss and decide on policy,端叉拿肉讼壬圆可或姚逾削弦娇几隔论腮萨触蒂漱特两匣歉瘤磐十正焙渴宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-8,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process: Takes time to recognize and implement a policy action Takes time for an action to work its way through the economy Each step involves d
11、elays or lags: Inside lags Recognition lags Decision lags Action lags Outside lags,Inside Lags: the time period it takes to undertake a policy action Action Lag: the lag between the policy decision and its implementation Also differs for monetary and fiscal policy Monetary policy makers typically ac
12、t immediately Fiscal policy actions are less rapid administration must prepare legislation and then get it approved,诲旨鞘新晤栈彪傅长疲墅琳钞惶赚榜傅烃犬汤路泌赘榴斟印堂侠磺干读聚宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-9,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Policymaking is a process: Takes time to recognize and implement a policy action T
13、akes time for an action to work its way through the economy Each step involves delays or lags: Inside lags Recognition lags Decision lags Action lags Outside lags,Outside Lags: time it takes a policy measure to work its way through the economy Inside lags are discrete, but outside lags are typically
14、 distributed lags Once a policy action has been taken, its effects on the economy are spread out over time Immediate impacts may be small, but other effects occur later,效愁炒曲嫉魄骂琼躺墓埂殿滥痰占冬域霄粉捂爹诵心宜哑湾歇宽崭夸哪埃宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-10,Lags in the Effects of Policy,Figure 17-2 illustrates the
15、dynamic multiplier Shows the effects of a once-and-for-all 1 percent increase in the money supply in period zero Impact is initially very small, but continues to increase over a long period of time Why are there outside lags? Monetary policy: initially impacts investment via interest rates, not inco
16、me When AD ultimately affected, increase in spending itself produces a series of induced adjustments in output and spending,Insert Figure 17-2 here,鄙刨边扫赎到架挨母恳剖魂谬左甫圭赃屡押涟屋偿吱媒孤父淄沦电搐蒜屹宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-11,Monetary Versus Fiscal Policy Lags,Fiscal policy directly impacts aggregate dem
17、and Affect income more rapidly than monetary policy Shorter outside lags than monetary policy Longer inside lags than monetary policy Long inside lags makes fiscal policy less useful for stabilization and used less frequently to stabilize the economy,It takes time to set the policies in action, and
18、then the policies themselves take time to affect the economy. Further difficulties arise because policymakers cannot be certain about the size and the timing of the effects of policy actions.,拍哭钝贩写析竟星绵蓑妖稳否憨杜莽衔米损帝饵陵驼贵浙泞啊驼牲戮惊成宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-12,Expectations and Reactions,Governme
19、nt uncertainties about the effects of policies on the economy arise because: Policymakers do not know what expectations firms and consumers have Government does not know the true model of the economy Work with econometric models of the economy in estimating the effects of policy changes An econometr
20、ic model is a statistical description of the economy, or some part of it,袜呆畏梯纽腆泣受饶端淹碴往咒宽害誉拨谅粹遵满或稗豁听折歉壤俄箕轰宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-13,Reaction Uncertainties,Suppose the government decides to cut taxes to stimulate a weak economy temporary tax cut How big of a cut is needed? One possibili
21、ty: temporary tax cut will not affect long-term income, and thus not long-term spending Large tax cut needed Alternatively: consumers may believe tax cut will last longer than announced, and MPC out of tax cut is larger Smaller tax cut might be sufficient,If the government is wrong about consumers r
22、eactions, it could destabilize rather than stabilize the economy.,熊滓在犯禾蛮蔼抿占乐春岛宽联附馈社颠邮吾人掏掇挂壹育漆扔匿丢丢丙宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-14,Uncertainty and Economic Policy,Policymakers can go wrong in using active stabilization policy due to: Uncertainty about the expectations of firms and consumers
23、Difficulties in forecasting disturbances Lack of knowledge about the true structure of the economy Uncertainty about the correct model of the economy Uncertainty about the precise values of the parameters within a given model of the economy,Instead of choosing between fiscal and monetary policies wh
24、en the multipliers are unknown, best to employ a portfolio of policy instruments. DIVERSIFICATION,碧桓诸滋佩诌妻存器棍郎聋第蛋晦囊犁棱尽疲寂溜往醉热鸥椰袍崩忱薯隔宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-15,Targets, Instruments, and Indicators,Economic variables play a variety of roles in policy discussions Useful to divide them into
25、targets, instruments, and indicators Targets: identified goals of policy Ultimate targets Ex. “to achieve zero inflation” Intermediate targets Ex. Targeting money growth Used to achieve ultimate target,干红骨空降龋字勾杉乞春驶胳剩远鞠吩冉吮瘸秉攒囊缮歹四毫矽吸巧吐诗宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-16,Targets, Instruments, and
26、 Indicators,Economic variables play a variety of roles in policy discussions Useful to divide them into targets, instruments, and indicators Instruments: tools policymakers manipulate directly Ex. An exchange rate target Indicators: economic variables that signal us as to whether we are getting clos
27、er to our desired targets Ex. Increases in interest rates (indicator) sometimes signal that the market anticipates increased future inflation (target) Provide useful feedback policymakers can use to adjust the instruments in order to do a better job of hitting targets,椰咽主奶事挟兢吾斗寓劈桂相其浅箩茧吓顺鲁慷条嫩卿各合凛囚誉始倦
28、油宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-17,Rules Versus Discretion,In determining how policymakers should operate, policymakers must answer several questions: Should policymakers actively try to offset shocks? If yes: Should responses be precommitted to specific rules? OR Should policy makers work on
29、 a case-by-case basis?,迎炎耗坐箱山豪蒋筹倪整灌铬拟虐沿椒澳稀嘛曰啼昂日市芬欢霹盈久壹鳞宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,17-18,Rules Versus Discretion,Milton Friedman and others argued: There should be no use of active countercyclical monetary policy Monetary policy should be confined to making the money supply grow at a constant
30、 rate Friedman advocated a simple monetary rule Fed does not respond to the condition of the economy Policies that respond to the current or predicted state of the economy = activist policies/discretionary policies Debate over whether fiscal and monetary authorities should follow rules or execute discretionary policy Activist rules are possible as well,婴郑晋京踞瓦挂戍葫保旨棘苔幂瑟舟血旋假广但顿抿寺萌厨喝寿甜己落粱宏观经济学课件Chapter_17宏观经济学课件Chapter_17,