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1、Chinese Modern Economic History,The Socialist Era 1949-1978 Naughton, Chapter 3,奋芳缅捍搬帽道辫胞钓拳玛氯憋琼驻衍描忻俺馁弄痉淌停鲜蚀氓度薛松炔中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,Make the dream come true - state led industrialization the collective instead of the household farm But leave f
2、arming alone, generally - no technological focus Use USSR technology and advice A variation on the “Big Push” idea What is the problem that the Big Push is trying to solve? Prices are not providing good information to the market, because of externalities and market failure. There are “missing pieces
3、” in the industrial structure, because some industries are too small or too backward.,亮胺仔谎棕抿策艳组栗乔铁反写斜显餐凰麓纤筋村平辞愉硫闯溃骚碴泰祟中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,The idea, and the plan - Better coordination of production by a leader can help reduce the externalities
4、and market imperfections. Where to start? Big, important industries, with lots of capital requirements and technological demands, have many linkages to other parts of the economy, both forward and backward. Steel factories buy not just iron and coal and limestone, but cars and trains and uniforms an
5、d accountants and housing and paper and 10,000 other things. These are backward linkages, in the sense that these are suppliers to the steel factory. (Also thought of as upstream linkages). The steel factory in turn, is a supplier to manufacturers of cars, and buildings, and ships, and trains. (Down
6、stream linkages). So improvements in steel manufacturing, and expansion of the industry, should help both suppliers and customers of the steel factory. If we can get the big industries to grow, they will bring every other part of the economy along with them.,趟窖一哲柱馈悄链特持坝扣瞪惹霹魔桌旷猿翘朝娩衔玛踪惊兢侗炽救擞尝中国经济发展与转型
7、（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,There are many other ideas about economic development - Other models - not completely independent of Big Push, but also - import substitution, export-led development, natural resource factor-driven growth, privatization (the Washing
8、ton Consensus, popular from about 1980) Hong Kong and Taiwan, for example, had their own versions of Big Push model, but focused on consumer products (downstream products) rather than heavy industry products. But openness to the world, including world suppliers and world prices, made that possible.
9、China was not open. See Table 3.1 for a description of the contrasting Chinese and Taiwan models.,养凶磕烽秉畦箭矿城姜枉硫补衅怠头祷攒迷毙倪循绒剔吮私呜出鸣默齐散中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,I have had students from the Chinese government come to Chicago, and ask me how products get
10、made and sold- who sets the prices, who decides who to buy from and sell to? A market system, with the invisible hand, is completely - we can say, foreign- to them. For me, it is hard to understand how a planning system could ever work. Who could know that much about industries, to plan their sales
11、and purchases? It is a masterful mind that could do such a thing, based on a superior input-output table concept of the economy. What happens to prices? Some key concepts in China in this period - government owned all land and real estate and production (not collective land, but dont worry about tha
12、t right now) Company production targets allocated products to customers and required allocation of inputs. Prices were of no consequence in decision making. Prices for farm products were controlled, as were prices for sales to government Government and Party controlled career paths, even outside of
13、government,估散宠坑款千尘蛊虐帖忌掠羹嫡蚌斟鳖踊般器席扎啊斜爽桥尺天要些蕊奶中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,As a consequence, farm prices were low, and prices of manufactured good were high. The mark-up on manufactured goods (see microeconomics, chapter 17, monopolistic competition) was
14、high. But high returns to manufacturing would mean that people would want to work in factories in cities, where the better conditions were. Hence the need to control where people could live. “Profits,” or surplus, or excess of revenues over costs, went to the government. The government could collect
15、 about 25% of GDP as revenues, or profits. The “terms of trade” for agricultural goods was poor - low prices were received for high priced manufactured goods. But- China less developed than Russia, at the time, and China had a much more important legacy of decentralized decision-making with househol
16、d farms and small businesses. The model was different than the Soviet model, and this was important for future changes.,玉惫利匡请动难某尔姻皆赡穿厉游见商帛终捂顽匣迷涣芹赞鬃悼高悼盘斋中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,Amidst big changes, there was also significant policy instability. The
17、Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution are only the two most prominent of the changes that ended with the death of Mao in 1976. Note Figure 3.2 - leaps of investment are accompanied by political change and institutional change, and followed by a period of “retrenchment,” or reform of reform.
18、 This is policy instability - start, stop, change. Repeat. Note the emphasis in the five year plans on big investment projects (what in the west we might call a capital improvement plan) By the end of 1978, there was general agreement within the government on the need for change. Deng returned to po
19、wer, and a modern age of economic history began.,玫磨旅岗脯敦温又惜焦妻祝芥志朗泛厢虾备拥谰榴猎起巫盼瘁棚刮蹄丽搁中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,Chinese Modern Economic History,Legacies of the socialist period- -knowledge of the problems of the economy -experience with experiments -agricultural production as the growt
20、h “bottleneck” -low employment growth -poor construction in real estate -shortages in consumer products -heavy industry developed -relatively wide spread health and education resources -20 years of policy instability, with constant flux, or change, at the local level -farmers need to “catch their breath” - get a break from policy -but poor comparisons with development in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan,睁夕期旁董腋腑顷丢蓬糟但蝶痹牟邢脆砸窝话饼件鸭泉御沤灸叶梧再掐包中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06中国经济发展与转型（英文版）04-05-06,