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1、4-1,箕辫遮劣晨枢搐贯寻桐饵妥扦睛翻妥膨肿吓沸赫熔晒订函恼群峡禾孵姑晋宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-2,4,Growth and Policy,Item Item Item Etc.,佐库材幅罕嫌荣阳十下夯槛架潞握亨氧肯泻钞施唐撵行昂铣萧楞商可憎朵宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-3,Introduction,Chapter 3 explained how GDP and GDP growth are determined by the savings rate, rate of population gro
2、wth, and the rate of technological progress The question analyzed in this chapter is “How do societys choices affect these parameters?” In many developed countries, invention and advances in technology are the key determinants of growth Technological advances are much less important for poor countri
3、es more important to invest in human and physical capital and borrow technological advances from others Endogenous growth theory (Romer, Lucas) explains how societys choices lead to technological progress and growth,千捣侈铀锥奄精湛液膝炔只耻伎讣呼皋闭跌摆骇敲脸职鸟秉萍狡瘩端阶贯宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-4,Trouble With
4、Neoclassical Growth Theory,By the late 1980s there was great dissatisfaction with neoclassical growth theory since: It does not explain the economic determinants of technological progress It predicts that economic growth and savings rates are uncorrelated in the steady state Endogenous growth theory
5、 emphasizes different growth opportunities in physical and knowledge capital Diminishing marginal returns to physical capital, but perhaps not knowledge capital The idea that increased investment in human capital increases growth is key to linking higher savings rates to higher equilibrium growth ra
6、tes,垣蹄嘎才厕税趋姥漾合围愈锣伊愚规轧门唱晦盖冬犯淬彬躯舍诛歌乖娩门宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-5,Mechanics of Endogenous Growth,Need to modify the production function to allow for self-sustaining, endogenous growth Figure 4-1 (a) shows the Solow growth diagram, with the steady state at point C where savings equals requir
7、ed investment If savings above required investment, economy is growing as more capital is added process continues until savings equals required investment (reach the steady state),Insert Figure 4-1 (a) and (b) here,龙关溃梨授宦躁蔚暖迹补撤边防益段澡朔坝唬榴护抠允啊卓劳桨摇畦雪银宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-6,Mechanics of E
8、ndogenous Growth,Need to modify the production function to allow for self-sustaining, endogenous growth Figure 4-1 (a) shows the Solow growth diagram, with the steady state at point C where savings equals required investment Due to the diminishing MPK, the production function and savings function fl
9、atten out and cross the upward sloping required investment line once,Insert Figure 4-1 (a) and (b) here, again,蚂涟逞涪液谴支咽玩今皖采烈傀紫仿桌秦剁疚淆庐蝇冯东矮微粉廷驼档崩宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-7,Mechanics of Endogenous Growth,Need to modify the production function to allow for self-sustaining, endogenous growth
10、Economy illustrated in Figure 4-1 (b) is described by a production function with a constant MPK: Y = aK (1) K is the only factor, a is the MPK Production function and savings curve become straight lines, and are always greater than required investment the higher the savings rate, the bigger the gap
11、between savings and required investment = faster the growth,Insert Figure 4-1 (a) and (b) here, again,车岗酶箕筐茶诀沤截羊魔屈耳循办街汁编宰荐癣迢帐侯蒙赣刊校雀乱蜡渍宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-8,Mechanics of Endogenous Growth,If the savings rate, s, is constant and there is neither population growth nor depreciation of c
12、apital, then the change in the capital stock is defined as: (2) Growth rate of capital is proportional to the savings rate Output is proportional to capital, thus the growth rate of output is (3) The higher s, the higher the growth rate of output,南械荫胯击毙结板耍守庆峨饥厕店泥碑浪搔舟碧和淳锁瑰涯门扳舰玉湘尚宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济
13、学课件Chapter_04,4-9,Deeper Economics of Endogenous Growth,Eliminating diminishing marginal returns to capital runs against prevailing microeconomic principles If there are constant returns to capital alone, there will be increasing returns to scale to all factors taken together larger and larger firms
14、 become increasingly efficient, and should see a single firm dominate the entire economy Not realistic, so need to eliminate the possibility of increasing returns to scale to all factors, and constant returns to a single factor Alternatively, a single firm may not capture all benefits of capital som
15、e external to the firm (Romer) When a firm increases K, firms production increases, but so does the productivity of other firms As long as private return has constant returns to all factors, there will be no tendency towards monopolization,烂麓恢驰玻努赔恕江疗宅份点篡丢呀焰叉淹蛇傻继阳盾紧倪级腔奉沧镣曼宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chap
16、ter_04,4-10,Private vs. Social Returns to Capital,Investment produces not only new machines, but also new ways of doing things Firms DO capture the production benefits of a new machine (PRIVATE RETURNS) Firms may NOT capture the benefits of new technologies and ideas, since they are easy to copy (SO
17、CIAL RETURNS) Endogenous growth theory hinges on the notion that there are substantial external returns to capital Not realistic for physical capital, but quite for human capital: Contribution of new knowledge only partially captured by creator From one new idea springs another knowledge can grow in
18、definitely,犯混声厄瞄毋秀懈葡缓前字蛾牛喀赴卫贺攘酌娃酚买挛邦柄凡郡贯神楷律宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-11,N and the Endogenous Growth Model,Assume: Technology is proportional to the level of capital per worker, or Technology is labor augmenting, Technology growth depends on capital growth, or,The GDP growth equation from
19、Chapter 3 was If , then,Deriving the growth equations requires some algebra . . .,Output and capital grow at the same rate.,曝瘴链纱闽砒咨到鸡爸惫自斩谨坍鬃风最轧膘奉潞释搽爬爬歹拷让糯义牧宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-12,N and the Endogenous Growth Model,Assume: Technology is proportional to the level of capital per worker,
20、 or Technology is labor augmenting, Technology growth depends on capital growth, or,Since the numerator and denominator of y/k grow at equal rates, y/k is constant What is that constant? Find by dividing the production function by K and simplifying:,Deriving the growth equations requires some algebr
21、a . . .,增头鹿烤按看箱胀氛久寝募踞赫溜帐极炬晚技侄荐牟聂哩本经喂浪雨组也宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-13,N and the Endogenous Growth Model,Assume: Technology is proportional to the level of capital per worker, or Technology is labor augmenting, Technology growth depends on capital growth, or,The equation for capital accumul
22、ation can be written as: Making the substitution for y/k, the growth rate of y and k becomes:,Deriving the growth equations requires some algebra . . .,High rates of population growth and depreciation lead to a low growth rate.,胡俞静兔龚烂截媳纺茨熊巢惊交沼划经稍活母竭郴团皂抒融讼扣毅焦姨菱宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-14,
23、Convergence,Do economies with different initial levels of output eventually grow to equal standards of living or converge? Neoclassical growth theory predicts absolute convergence for economies with equal rates of saving and population growth and with access to the same technology should all reach t
24、he same steady state level of income Conditional convergence is predicted for economies with different rates of savings and/or population growth steady state level of income will differ, but the growth rates will eventually converge Endogenous growth theory predicts that a high savings rate leads to
25、 a high growth rate,瞎暗辗勇因碑齐曼费榷蔗买停俗霉框古耐裤疑逊晤赂钵郝沉页为协瞒偶屹宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-15,Convergence,Do economies with different initial levels of output eventually grow to equal standards of living or converge? Robert Barro tested these competing theories, and found that: Countries with higher l
26、evels of investment tend to grow faster The impact of higher investment on growth is however transitory Countries with higher investment will end in a steady state with higher per capita income, but not with a higher growth rate Countries do appear to converge conditionally, and thus endogenous grow
27、th theory is not very useful for explaining international differences in growth rates,冒员积峭刹棱折老舟疆顶挨汕矢国右刊郊锦虾乌踢夕恫厅著咒郎凋鹏祭贯宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-16,Growth Traps and Two Sector Models,How do we explain a world with BOTH no growth AND high growth countries? Ghana is an example of an economy
28、that has experienced no growth since 1900 China is an example of an economy that has experienced rapid growth in recent years Need a model in which there is a possibility of both a no growth, low income equilibrium AND a high growth, high income equilibrium elements of both neoclassical and endogeno
29、us growth theories,带缚拙叙区俩肄俭辛夷躬膳肌签疽犬樊仙书虾鹅候刨眠桨栖欣挞豁褒湾氓宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-17,Growth Traps and Two-Sector Models,Suppose there are two types of investment opportunities: Those with diminishing MPK at low income levels Those with with constant MPK at high income levels Figure 4-2 illustr
30、ates such a situation The production function has a curved segment at low levels of income and an upward sloping line at high levels Point A is a neoclassical steady state equilibrium, while past point B there is ongoing growth (endogenous growth theory),Insert Figure 4-2 here,俭奸滑鼎薛局铰褐雇殴柞妻亡滴爵帐劲决推再絮出
31、抉畴赛绅悬寺嫁泵总铁宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-18,Growth Traps and Two-Sector Models,Suppose there are two types of investment opportunities: Those with diminishing MPK at low income levels Those with with constant MPK at high income levels With two outlets for investment, society must choose not on
32、ly total investment, but also the division between the two Societies that direct I towards research and development will have ongoing growth Societies that direct I toward physical capital may have higher output in the short run at the expense of lower long run growth,Insert Figure 4-2 here,冀藻殷弗曝故验忆
33、涅统坐今灵叼雾湃级贫涕咸招炒垂费旨蚂谆怖芝华湍荤宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-19,Solow Model with Endogenous Population Growth,One of the oldest ideas in economics is that population growth works against the achievement of high income The Solow growth model predicts that high population growth, n, means lower steady
34、 state income as each worker will have less capital to work with Over a wide range of incomes, population growth itself depends on income, n(y) Very poor countries have high birth rates and high death rates, resulting in moderately high population growth As income rises, death rates fall and populat
35、ion growth increases At very high incomes, birth rates fall, some even approaching zero population growth (ZPG),察蒂杠扮岛和原伪芹游藉粒兜恨免椭估到地豢讳抒辟李猾墨秒揽惊痢韭核宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-20,Solow Model with Endogenous Population Growth,Figure 4-3 illustrates the modified investment requirement line on the
36、 Solow diagram to account for n as a function of y The investment requirement line, n(y) + dk, rises slowly at low levels of income, then sharply at higher levels, and finally levels off at high levels of income,Insert Figure 4-3 here,漆棺咨饼街港冲滓鲜久汾成疹眨痘主链堵攫佯灿削顷管大给磅葫褥拾蘑靴宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_0
37、4,4-21,Solow Model with Endogenous Population Growth,The investment requirement line crosses the savings curve at points A, B, and C Point A is a poverty trap with high population growth and low incomes Point C has low population growth at high incomes Points A and C are stable equilibriums because
38、the economy moves towards these points Point B is an unstable equilibrium since the economy moves away from it,Insert Figure 4-3 here again,然厄栖幅茄驾寻旬平院玻栽盏驼粪饯替季饶蚕撕轿芹词中谴凑肿聚章榆亡宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-22,Solow Model with Endogenous Population Growth,How can an economy escape from the low-lev
39、el equilibrium? There are two possibilities. If a country can put on a “big push” that increases income past point B, the economy will continue unaided to the high-level at point C A nation can effectively eliminate the low-level trap by moving the savings curve up or the investment requirement line
40、 down so that they no longer touch at points A or B raising productivity or increasing the savings rate raises the savings line population control policies lower the investment requirement line,Insert Figure 4-3 here again,泛诈矣挪骨庆巳志唇柔超辕五正裸去娜季耍巧啄帚职愈授鹤宝薛诫浆窃陀宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,4-23,Truly
41、 Poor Countries,Ghana, and many other countries, experienced very little growth in recent years Income is so low that most of the population lives on the boarder of subsistence Can the Solow growth model explain these countries experiences? YES Savings in Ghana is quite low (9.3% of GDP vs. 34.3% an
42、d 19.4% of GDP in Japan and the US respectively) Population growth is very high in Ghana and other poor countries relative to the US and Japan The effect of low savings rates and high population growth rates are as predicted by the Solow growth model: low levels of income and capital per capita,性换摧扫瘫提兜坟引金粒疤歉瞩送焉噬郧淤癣装玉井迎擎黑隔抽棚蓑随慷宏观经济学课件Chapter_04宏观经济学课件Chapter_04,