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1、罗兰贝格：加入世界贸易组织后中国汽车工业发展的十大趋势 ? 20018131SHA-C1189943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT3A.4B.5201034128C.51020 30 49 I: 877This document was created for the exclusive use of our clients. It is not complete unless supported by the underlying detailed analyses and oral presentation. It must notbe passed on to third
2、 parties except with the explicit prior consent of Roland Berger (Shanghai) International Management Consultants Ltd.2SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 20001 ? WTO200155: jian_xucn.rolandberger4 ? () 3SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTA. 4SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT162 2010200732005849520105
3、 6105SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5122005100201020012350%20054, 5201034126SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT56201070%789107SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTB. 5201034 128SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5122005100201020012350%20054, 5201034129SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTGDP, 1990200010.
4、5%8.8%7.8%7.3%6.8%6.2%6.1%5.2%5.2%1.4%1.7%3.4%: 2001, OECD10SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTGDP +1% / +34%.GDP+1.7%+1.15%WTO 2005 vs. 2000+1.3%+4.6% / -2.1%2005 vs. 1999+500: , 11SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPTWTO?135? (3.7%11%?22.1%)?WTO?: ? 12SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT? - - ?/?(): ? 1
5、3SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 5(1/2)? 80%100%?525%?510% - <40%: 50% - 40%60% 30% - 60%80% 24% - >80%: 20%?60?15%5?/?: ? 14SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 5(2/2)1)?2 ?40% ?50%?2003?:?3000?30001.5?10056?“”1)5(): ? 15SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT“WTO!” “WTO” “WTO” 16SHA-C118943-2001
6、99-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5122005100201020012350%20054, 52010341217SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT+6% 3.310.1-1% +1% 2.3+2% 5.31.59.112.114.618.14.24.14.6199419992004199419992004199419992004199419992004+12% 1.08+5% +1% 2.50.250.571.92.00.190.20.21199419992004199419992004199419992004 ()+2% +9% 34.537.040.
7、74.53.12.8199419992004199419992004: S&P DRI 200018SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT?20059% +7% /+9% /+15% /2,0001,00063459050752645244542025012323387475508570617012920058321820225919941995199619971998199920002005E1)2010E1) : 2001, ? 19SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT() 99% /1155% /6341,0002,0
8、00(> 2.5l)8%88.55%8%88.77%6%2.02.5l)8%77.66%8%17%122.00%52%51%54%1.62.0l)8.515%166.48.4%()10%1166.00%14%2211.00%1.01.6l)18%22%66.99%(< 1.0l)19%99.88%15%200020052010: , ? 20SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT2001400A6+ 3350A6300 2.0250+ + 200 Premacy+ + EM 2000150 / + DC+ + L G 2000+ + Vitz100+
9、Platz + Pride50 00.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.53.0l()+: : ? 21SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1)2000()%40%60%38%34%35%50%30%46%46%45%49%30%31%31%45%40%28%26%40%24%25%39%38%23%38%36%20%22%30%18%18%17%15%24%20%17%10%9%15%13%10%8%0%0%19961997199819992000199619971998199920001): 200050%: 2001, ? 22SHA-C11
10、8943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1), 10% 1?110%80% 63%220%37%329%24%555%11%8%6%: 150: 1200 1): 2001: 2001, ? 23SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010% (1/2)110020001236.636636341902502005E1239.819811,0005002010E12314.71,4702,0001,4002000: 5.4%102000:2000:3040%2005E: 8%10%2005E:2005E:50%2010E: 12%2010E:201
11、0E:70%E: 2001, ? 24SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1010%(2/2):?: 7%/.?:2000E: = 512005E: = 532010E: = 562000E12%2005E8%2010E5.4%182535100 : 2001, ? 25SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2)5 “”? 80,000?1.3L?: , ? 26SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2)?: , ? 27SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT
12、?()?: ? 28SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5122005100201020012350%20054, 52010341229SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2) 1992 1990 ZX (120,000) (150,000) (30,000)- 1983(150,000) 1984 2001(100,000) (50,000) 1985 (300,000) (60,000) 1997 1993 (100,000) (80,000) 1985(300,000) 1998(30,000): , 30SHA-
13、C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2) 2000 (50,000) 1993 (60,000) 1994 (2,100) 1985 (50,000)- 1996 (7,000)SPA 19981995 (10,000) (60,000) 1996 (60,000): , 31SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT 50%, 5 40 2000(%)() (SVW)30025083%- (SVW) 603050%40(03) (SVW) 00 -100(02)(FAW)1509060% - A6 (FAW)301757% - (FAW
14、)00-50(05) 1205445%50(02) (CMC)805366%-3030100%20(01) (SGM)1003030% - () (SGM)00-Vitz/Yaris (TAIC)00-30(02)1508255%-Premacy (minivan) (FAH)-20(04) ( MC)-50(02)-10055%-10077%-600-/6058%40Palio500-201365%-3500-300-ca. 1,440678<50%+400: ,32SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT2005 ()2500200020001730177
15、01790184018401840184018401840170015001500144015001300100011001000890750820500690634020002001E2002E2003E2004E2005E2006E2007E2008E2009E2010E%42444144485055637384962001-20055%2006-201010%: ? 33SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (1/2)GLS250199320019941995150(2001)19978000+17%199619982000 = 120,000780002
16、001 = 100,0001002003 < 80,0001002004008001,6003,200: ?, 34SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT (2/2)2001A6(2.8L) 730,000-30%512,000+55%+109%+90%330,000269,000245,000: ? 35SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5()/()1(30-50%)2 ( 20-30% )3 (+100%): ? 36SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT512200510020102001
17、2350%20054, 520103412 37SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(1/2): ?2001?2001/2002?20-40%?530%8-10%?2000?(A)?50%?1999: ? 38SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT(2/2): ?20016 ?: ? 39SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT?-()-?20016?30%?6.5?35?20015?980050%: ? 40SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT51220051002010
18、20012350%20054, 52010341241SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT5251030473710192256(?)61964198020002005: , ? 42SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT20105-6181416564?34?12?14?(>50%)? ?200120052010: ? 43SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT19961999122118()> 50,00071220,00050,0009517.8%10,00020,000845,000
19、10,00013132,0005,00024171,0002,000181182.2%5001,00013141005002016<100102619961999: CNAIC, ? 44SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT1)0%,100%25%,75%II50%,50%2010I75%,25%100%,0%1): : ? 45SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()()20052005 20102010?(?VCD/DVD)?(?)?()?(IT)?: ? 46SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT()()20052005 2010 2010?()?()?3412?(?(?)()?)? (, 3 Com)?: ? 47SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT: ? 48SHA-C118943-200199-02-15-C-F-x.PPT