《欧洲经济危机美国兴许获利.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《欧洲经济危机美国兴许获利.doc（12页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、欧洲经济危机，美国兴许获利欧元危机使得全世界范围的市场和经济恐慌不已。但是在美国，欧元危机对投资者来说意味着更低成本的贷款，更加低廉的燃气价格和正面的消息。 【相关内容：欧洲，新兴市场，投资策略，联邦储备系统，Jim Jubak】 .窗体底端欧元危机使得全世界范围的市场和经济恐慌不已。但是在美国，欧元危机对投资者来说意味着更低成本的贷款，更加低廉的燃气价格和正面的消息。【相关内容：欧洲，新兴市场，投资策略，联邦储备系统，Jim Jubak】作者：Jim Jubak在欧洲，欧元债务危机只有坏消息。希腊动乱，西班牙罢工，薪水缩减，20%的失业率，纳税额增加，政府服务减少，萧条景象满眼皆是。那么美国
2、的情况呢？当然，欧元危机也给股票市场造成了一点儿波动，但它同时带来了利率降低，房屋贷款减少和燃气价格下降。在未来数月的中期，欧元危机可能导致对新兴股票市场的影响比预想中更快地从巴西转移到中国。想想看吧。获得与损失欧元危机已经使纽约、圣保罗和东京的股市处于下跌之中，并且他们担心完全有理由去担心危机会从希腊，西班牙和葡萄牙先扩散到法国，然后远至加利福尼亚的银行。虽然中国人民银行并没有谈到，但是北京的外汇储备，由于近些年实行多元化，增持欧元而减少美元，已经因欧元贬值15%而受到打击，原油和铜的商品期货价格已经下降。但不是所有的坏消息都没有一点儿积极的意义。如果你想在美国购买一所房屋，或者拥有一项全是
3、美国财政部债券的证券投资组合，欧元危机确实是个好消息。从世界范围讲，这次危机可能会使美国的股票在一段时间内有上佳表现。在更广泛的领域中，此次危机已经影响新兴的股票市场持续走低。例如，2010年以来，安硕摩根斯坦利巴西市场指数基金（iShares MSCI Brazil Index）ETF基金（EWZ，新闻，消息）下降了大约13%，上海股票市场完全进入了熊市，其指数比2009年最高点时已经下降了20%还多。不过对于这些市场，欧元债务危机给出了尽快结束下跌并快速反弹的承诺。（想要了解更多关于中国市场的熊市情况，请参阅我之前的文章中国危险的平衡行动。）为什么坏事会变成好事一个对于欧洲来说糟糕透顶的坏
4、消息变成了美国买房人、投资者和正在发展的股票市场的利好消息，这到底是一种怎样的魔力作用呢？更低的利率和通胀。在美国，欧元债务危机演变成这样：欧元的辛劳付出却由美元收获利益。从贬值的欧元中逃离出来的投资者、贸易商和投机者已经购买了美元和以美元命名的产品，比如说国库券。这使得10年期国库券的收益率很多抵押放贷者用它作为基准在5月18日当天下降了3.34%。这是一个巨大的转变。当经济市场为美联储开始增加利率做准备，当债券购买者需要花更多的钱来冒美元下跌的风险时，十年期国库券的收益率却已经走上了向上的轨道，从2009年5月15日的3.14%上升到2010年4月9日的3.94%。有那么几天，收益率已经在
5、给4%这个心理上的极限值暗送秋波了。接下来，随着欧元危机的打击，国库券收益率陷入逆境。在债券市场，每天的收益率变化为很少的几个百分点，10年期国库券的收益率在一个月多一点儿的时间内下降了60个百分点。这造成了15%的收益下降。如果我们讨论道琼斯工业平均值($INDU)，我们在指数方面已经从最高点下降了1600点。美国国库券市场看到，债券购买者从担心利率增长最早会在2010年秋天结束，转变为相信美联储直到2011年才会改变利率。 Bloombergs开展的定期经济民意调查显示，截止到5月10日，中央预报要求在利率方面适度增长0.25个百分点，到2010年底到达0.5%，这比4月29日中央预报的0
6、.75%的目标利率有所降低。为什么要改变？有分析认为，随着欧元债务危机造成2010年欧元区经济增长放缓1%或者更少，美联储会极不情愿的放缓美国经济增长。这就需要美国增加利率并冒阻碍本土经济复苏的风险。相反的利率政策已经波及到全美的经济领域。比如，按揭利率已经很接近国库券收益率的下降速度了。根据Zillow公司按揭市场数据，5月18日当天，30年固定期按揭的利率从5月11日的4.79%下降到4.70%。30年期按揭的利率创下了自去年12月以来的新低。继续：房产的利好消息走低的按揭利率对美国房产业当然是个好消息，并且它依旧缓慢地接近底部。根据政府5月18日公布的数据，房产业从4月开始繁荣，因为建筑
7、商开发了672,000间住宅，高于舆论预测的655,000间，达到自2008年10月以来的最高点。房屋开工率依然维持在一个极低的水平，谈论复苏还为时尚早，但是我可以很直接地说，房地产业显示了稳定的信号。那是一个好消息，尤其是当经济学家害怕高的按揭率会让房地产销售者失业和开工率降低。这样一种逆反U型转变，从利率增加到美联储可能会在2010年中随时变化利率的期望落空也让收益投资者的策略彻底改变。今年早些时候，收益投资者从国库券也纷纷出逃，因为他们认为债券价格会因为利率增加而下降。可是，现在国库券在今年给出了一个完全积极的回报。收益率仍旧很低，但是正2%的实际收益率消费者物价指数核心的计算方法为3.
8、34%收益率减去1.1%的年通货膨胀率现在几乎足以坚持抵消了股票市场的波动。当然，欧元债务危机导致的欧元区经济增长速度缓慢，以及对原油和铜等国际期货商品的低需求，都会抑制全球通货膨胀。在美国，这会成为美联储在2010年中推迟抬高利率的又一个原因。在世界新兴市场当中，更低的通货膨胀率可能意味着由政府和中央银行进行的调整会更快地结束，在这些国家中这些调整使得自己国内的股市处于波动中。（想了解更多关于这些调整是怎样在中国结束的，请参阅我之前的博客中国股票市场由于担心通货膨胀而进入熊市。）利率增长幅度小较高的商品价格不是中国、巴西、印度等众多发展中国家发生通货膨胀的唯一原因。（在很多这样的国家中，尤其
9、在中国，货币供应量有一点儿失控。）在这些新兴市场国家，这需要花费数月的时间，用比预期低的通货膨胀数字使中央银行确信他们能够尽早地停止利率上涨。但是，更低的商品价格将会使得中央银行利率上涨持续到第四季度的计划在第三季度结束。我认为这很有可能导致新兴市场国家形成一个强有力的商品出口部门。在这种情况下，萧条的或者说是走低的商品价格将会阻止国内的通货膨胀、延缓经济，作为出口增长缓慢对欧元危机的回应。巴西是这种经济体中最好的例证。印度是这个群体中的另一个例子。（想了解更多关于巴西中央银行增长利率计划的情况，请参阅我网页上的帖子。）现在，对欧元债务危机的恐慌已经扩散到欧元区外，对欧洲经济增长减缓的恐慌将会
10、使全球经济复苏的轨道发生偏离，给寻求危机的结果路径蒙上更多的阴影。当你担心世界将会走向尽头的时候，你也许会注意到今年的春天来的较早。欧元债务危机确实是能让全世界都会疲惫的经济危机。不过，世界经济之间联系的复杂程度几乎可以保证，这样的消息不会在所有的市场中对每一个消费者和投资者都是坏消息。2010年形成的艰难局面已经接近尾声，当利率增长和抑制通货膨胀政策结束这比预期要短的危机趋势的时候，我想投资者会获得足够的希望，可以在新兴市场国家升值股票。这样讲恰好是一种可以减退人们恐慌情绪的方法。股票市场恢复到意想的结果在很大程度上依赖于新兴市场国家的力量。但是，当前欧元危机如果能够加速恢复，将会在促进世界
11、经济增长中扮演一个加速器的角色。截至本文发表时，Jim Jubak没有拥有本文中提到的任何公司的股份。Jim Jubak已经在写Jubak期刊，追踪他的市场打击理论的表现。Jubak的精华文章从1997年开始在MSN Money上发表。他是2008年Jubak精华一书的作者，是Jubak精华博客的作者，同时也是MoneyS的高级市场编辑。Jim Jubak: Europes debt crisis could be good for US - MSN MoneyEuropes pain could be your gainThe euro crisis is rattling markets
12、and economies around the world. But in the US, it means cheaper loans, lower gas prices and good news for investors.Related content: Europe, emerging markets, investing strategy, Federal Reserve, Jim JubakBy Jim JubakIn Europe, the euro debt crisis is nothing but bad news.Riots in Greece. Strikes in
13、 Spain. Shrinking paychecks. Unemployment rates of 20%. Rising taxes. Cuts to government services. Hard times for as far as the eye can see.In the U.S.? Sure, the crisis has sent a shiver through the stock market, but its also responsible for falling interest rates, cheaper mortgages and lower gas p
14、rices.In the medium term, the crisis might even lead to sooner-than-expected turnarounds for emerging stock markets from Brazil to China.Go figure.Winning and losing The euro debt crisis has sent stocks tumbling from New York to So Paulo to Tokyo on worries - well-founded worries - that the crisis w
15、ill spread from Greece, Spain and Portugal to, first, France, and then to banks as far away as California. The Peoples Bank of China isnt talking, but Beijings foreign-exchange reserves, held increasingly in euros in recent years as China has diversified away from the U.S. dollar, have taken a beati
16、ng from the 15% decline in the euro. Prices for commodities such as oil and copper have plunged.But no bad deed goes completely unrewarded. And the euro crisis is actually good news if youre thinking of buying a home in the United States or own a portfolio full of U.S. Treasury bonds.The crisis coul
17、d even make U.S. stocks the best-performing in the world for a while. Further afield, the crisis has fed into a relentless decline in emerging-market stocks. The iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ, news, msgs), for instance, is down about 13% for 2010, and the Shanghai stock market is in a bona fide
18、 bear market, with a better than 20% decline from its November 2009 high. But for these markets, the euro debt crisis promises an accelerated end to the decline and a quicker rebound. (For more on Chinas bear market, see my previous column, Chinas dangerous balancing act.)Why bad news is good news W
19、hat are the magic ingredients that have turned what is unrelievedly bad news for Europe into good news for U.S. homebuyers, U.S. investors and developing-economy stock markets?Lower interest rates and lower inflation.In the United States, the euro debt crisis has worked like this: The euros pain has
20、 been the U.S. dollars gain. Investors, traders and speculators fleeing a sinking euro have bought dollars and dollar-denominated instruments such as Treasury bonds. That moved the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which many mortgage lenders use as a benchmark, down to 3.34% on May 18.Thats a huge t
21、urnaround. The yield on 10-year Treasurys had been on a march upward as financial markets prepared for the Federal Reserve to start increasing interest rates and as bond buyers demanded to be paid more to take on the risk of a falling dollar. From 3.14% on May 15, 2009, the yield climbed to 3.94% on
22、 April 9, 2010. On some days, it flirted with the psychologically important 4% threshold. And then, as the euro crisis hit, the yield on Treasurys plunged. In the bond market, where daily changes in yield are normally measured by a few hundredths of a percentage point, the yield on 10-year Treasurys
23、 fell by 60-hundredths of a percentage point (0.6) in a little more than a month. Thats a 15% decline in yield. If we were talking about the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), wed be shaking our heads over a 1,600-point drop in the index.The U.S. Treasury market has seen bond buyers go from worry
24、ing about interest-rate increases as early as fall 2010 to believing that the Federal Reserve wont make a move until 2011. Bloombergs regular poll of economists showed that, as of May 10, the median forecast called for a very modest 0.25-percentage-point increase in interest rates to 0.5% by the end
25、 of 2010. Thats down from the April 29 median forecast of a 0.75% target rate by the years end.Why the change? The thinking is that with the euro debt crisis causing growth in the eurozone economies to slow to 1% or less in 2010, the Fed will be extremely reluctant to slow U.S. growth with interest-
26、rate increases and risk stalling the U.S. economic recovery.The reversal in interest rates has rippled out across the U.S. economy.For example, mortgage rates have fallen almost as fast as Treasury yields. On May 18, the interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages was 4.70%, down from 4.79% on May 11,
27、 according to Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. The interest rate on a 30-year mortgage hadnt been that low since December. Continued: Good for housingLower mortgage rates are, of course, good for a U.S. housing industry that is still crawling off the bottom. Housing starts boomed in April, according to
28、government numbers released May 18, with builders starting construction of 672,000 homes, well above the consensus projection of 655,000 and the highest level since October 2008. Housing starts remain at an extremely low level, and its premature to talk about a recovery, but I think it is fair to sa
29、y that the housing industry is showing signs of stabilization. And thats good news, especially because economists had feared that higher mortgage rates would send home sales and starts back down.This reversal - a U-turn from rising interest rates and falling expectations that the Federal Reserve wil
30、l move on rates anytime in 2010 - has also turned income investors strategies inside out. Earlier in the year, income investors were moving away from Treasurys because they thought bond prices were due for a decline as interest rates climbed. Now, however, Treasury bonds promise positive total retur
31、ns for the year. Yields are still absolutely low, but a 2%-plus real yield - the yield of 3.34% minus the 1.1% annual rate of inflation as measured by the core Consumer Price Index - stands up pretty well against the volatility of the stock market right now.And, of course, the euro debt crisis, with
32、 its guarantee of lower economic growth in the eurozone and lower demand for global commodities such as oil and copper, promises to put a damper on global inflation.In the United States, that will be one more reason for the Federal Reserve to put off raising interest rates anytime in 2010. In the wo
33、rlds emerging markets, lower inflation is likely to mean a more rapid end to moves by governments and central banks that have sent stocks in those countries reeling. (For more on how this is playing out in China, see my blog post Chinas stocks enter bear-market territory on inflation fears.)Fewer in
34、terest-rate increases? Higher commodity prices arent the only reason that inflation has picked up in China, Brazil, India and much of the rest of the developing world. (In many of these countries and in China in particular, theres a little matter of a runaway money supply.) And it will take months o
35、f lower-than-expected inflation numbers to convince central banks in emerging countries that they can stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later. But theres a good chance that lower commodity prices will cause central banks planning on four interest-rate increases to stop at three.I think
36、this is especially likely in emerging economies with a strong commodity-export sector. In those cases, stagnant or falling commodity prices will cut into inflation at home and slow the economy as export growth moderates in reaction to the euro debt crisis.Brazil is the prime example of just such an
37、economy. Indonesia is another in that group. (For more on plans by the Banco Central do Brasil to raise interest rates, see this post on my website.) Right now, the fear that the euro debt crisis will spread beyond the eurozone and that slower growth in Europe will derail the global recovery oversha
38、dows any more nuanced way of looking at the results of the crisis. When youre worried that the world is coming to an end, you dont stop to notice that spring has come early this year.The euro debt crisis is indeed a major economic and financial crisis that will play out across the world. But the com
39、plexity of the connections in the world economy pretty much guarantees that bad news is almost never uniformly bad news in every market and for every consumer and investor.Toward the end of what is shaping up as a very rough 2010, I think investors will have gained enough perspective - which is just
40、 a fancy way to say that the fear will have receded a bit - to start to bid up stocks in emerging markets as interest-rate increases and inflation-fighting policies end shorter-than-expected runs. The stock market rallies that will result will be based largely on the strength of these emerging econo
41、mies. But todays euro crisis will play a part, if only to speed up a return to accelerating growth in the developing world.At time of publication, Jim Jubak did not own shares of any company mentioned in this column.Jim Jubak has been writing Jubaks Journal and tracking the performance of his market-beating Jubaks Picks portfolio since 1997 on MSN Money. He is the author of a 2008 book, The Jubak Picks, and writer of the Jubak Picks blog. Hes also the senior markets editor at MoneyS.