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1、中国通货膨胀原因与治理措施（Causes of inflation in China and its control measures）2011 thJournal of economic research 25No.252011Total No.135ECONOMICRESEARCHGUIDESerialNo.One hundred and thirty-fiveCauses of inflation in China and its control measuresXin Jie Zhang(School of economics, Shandong University, Jinan)2
2、50100)Abstract: Chinas current inflation is mainly caused by the output gap, the rapid growth of money and credit, changes in economic structure factors, changes in exchange rates, and inflationThe output gap is a fundamental determinant of inflation, as in the money supply indexM2In the short term,
3、 there is only real transaction currencyCan be directed towards things.Price play a role in promoting. Combined with the causes of inflation, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the current inflation in Chinas governance, mainly to perfect itCPI system, central bank realA tight monetary poli
4、cy, lowering prices, and accelerating the transformation of economic development.Key words: inflation; CPI; reasons; governance measuresCLC number: F120.2 document mark code: A, article number: 1673-291X (2011) 25-0009-022., the rapid growth of money and credit. In the middle of twentieth Century, F
5、reedman put forwardI. The current situation of inflation in ChinaModern money quantity theory holds that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon,Inflation refers to the issue of paper money in excess of what is needed in the circulation of commodities, which is caused by the amount of money i
6、n circulation exceeds the actual demandThe devaluation of money and the continuing rise in prices. The measure of inflation is mainly to reduce the supply of money, and therefore control the supply of moneyThe measure of expansion is a very complicated problem. At present, the National Bureau of sta
7、tistics has six types of central banks that eventually control inflation rates. If the central bank keeps the money supplyPrice index, they areThe consumer price index and the retail price of commodities are stable and the price level will be stable. If the central bank increases its money supply qu
8、icklyThe price level of agricultural means of production, the index of purchasing price of agricultural products and the supply of industrial products will rise rapidly. In order to cope with the impact of the financial crisis, to meet the rapidFactory price index, fixed asset investment price index
9、. But the three most important concerns are the need to revive the economy. China has adopted a loose monetary policy, monetary, credit andIs the consumer price index(CPI) ex factory price index of industrial products (PPI) in broad currencyM2Sustained growth,Broad money at the end of 2010M2balanceS
10、eventy-two point five eightAnd the GDP deflator (calculated at current prices)GDP against fixed prices of trillion yuan, an increase of19.7%, 2009 bank loans balance growthComputationalGDP ratio. Among them, the CPI index is the most commonly used, it is reflected with 32%, the growth rate of money
11、supply is much more thanGDP growth, the giant between the twoIndicators of changes in prices of goods and services related to household life, often viewed as a large gap, have bought inflation risks.An important indicator of inflation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics website, the numb
12、er of indicators in the money supplyIn M2, only in the short runReal transaction currencyAccording to the,20111 - June, ChinaCPI104.9, 104.9, 105.4, 105.3,Can directly play a role in promoting prices, split into the capital market of money against prices105.5 and 106.4 (all over the same month)100).
13、 Judging from this, China has only indirect effects this year. In the short term, we should not overestimate the price pushing action of moneyThe inflation rate in the first half of the yearMore than 5%, although still in the controllable range, but has been used. Real transaction currency is the re
14、al medium of commodity and service exchangeIn high operating, we need to attract our attention. This article will explore what causes that part of the money, another part of the money used for investment purposes, such as buying and selling stocksHow should we manage inflation in China at the presen
15、t stage of inflation?. The impact of money on consumer prices is not directly, but only through the wealth effectTwo, the current causes of inflationHave an indirect impact on consumer prices.3. changes in economic structural factors. In economic activity, productivity in each sector is raised1. out
16、put gap. The so-called output gap is that the actual output is inconsistent with the high rate of potential output. But productivity increases slowly in sectors and non open sectorsThe difference is the percentage of actual output, that is, the actual output, the underlying wave of potential output,
17、 and the rest of the sector, on wages and prices,Degree of movement. In many countries, central banks or government economic sectors have produced output gaps, which have led to inflation. Chinas economic development has shown the following characteristics:An important indicator of inflation pressur
18、e for analysis.The actual output is greater than the potential output, and the eastern coastal cities have high degree of opening to the outside world, fast economic development and economic efficiencyThe gap is known as the inflation gapInflationGap). If the actual output is high, and the central a
19、nd western enterprises, despite national policy support, still relatively closed economic efficiencyMore than potential output, excessive demand in the economy, low price of economy and society, uneven development of the region, and booming service and processing industriesPing will rise in general.
20、 Since 2010, Chinas output gap has been positive, and industry and manufacturing have been developing slowly, while last years financial turmoil and this years economyL, the economy is overheated, the existence of excessive demand, leading to a general recovery in the general price level, but also c
21、aused inter regional and inter sectoral imbalances in the development of the accelerated pace of theseRise。 Therefore, the existence of the output gap is a fundamental force in determining inflation.Are all factors contributing to this years inflation.Received date: 2011-07-06About the author: Zhang
22、 Xinjie1989-), female, Shandong, Taian, undergraduate, engaged in inflation theory research.-Nine-4. changes in exchange rates. At present, the RMB is under pressure from appreciation, according to ChinaPeoples RepublicData on the statistical communique on national economic and social development in
23、 2010,At the end of 2010, the RMB exchange rate was1 dollars against6.6227 yuan, compared with the end of last yearappreciation3%, and the one-year dollar interest rate is much lower than the RMB interest rate, while ChinasEconomic development has shown a good trend, all of which have led to the int
24、ernational heatThe constant influx of money is reflected in: as ofForeign exchange reserves at the end of 2010Twenty-eightFour hundred and seventy-threeBillion dollars, an increase over the previous yearFour48 billion 100 million dollars. Foreign Exchange Inflow1 dollars, the central bankYou have to
25、 take it back7 yuan, which has led to an increase in base money.5. inflation expectations. Inflation expectations lead to panic buying and hoarding by residentsExpectations are transitive, and inflation expectations are easy to form a master in the populationIt is easy for residents to anticipate su
26、ch expectations when the flow is expected to be practicalUsed in real economic behavior. Guided by this strong inflationary expectation, peopleWeve got a hunch that inflation is coming, so as to avoid inflation, reallyIn the hands of the currency devaluation, the home began to buy goods hoarding, wh
27、ich in certainThe degree of man-made shortage caused the upward pressure on pricesPower。 Inflation expectations also affect the pace of money flow. The application of inflation expectationsAs a result of the buying behavior, the rate of money flow will increaseIncreasing the amount of money flowing
28、is equivalent to the effect of monetary authorities increasing the money supply.Three, the current inflation control measures1. perfectCPI system. We can sense the official statistics of ChinaThe CPI index is not consistent with the actual consumer price changes, indicating ChinaTheDefects in the CP
29、I system make it impossible for the government to understand Chinas inflation accuratelyThe present situation and the seriousness, can not take the powerful method to solve the inflation questionQuestions. ChinaThe flaw in the CPI system is that the authorities have been emphasizing as international
30、Convention,CPI does not include commercial housing prices, and the housing class weight is too low13% leftRight, international practice isMore than 30%), the base is too low, while the food category accounts forCPI rightWeight33.6%, food is usually the last part of inflation. (1) buildAccording to t
31、he income of high, medium, low, launchedCPIs classification index, and in good timeAccording to the actual situation, we should improve the grouping standards of the residents income statistics. (2) commercial housingPrices are included, and at the same time, the proportion of all aspects should be
32、adjusted rationally. (3) year by yearThe classification weights are fine tuned to reflect changes in weightsThe end of the CPI dataAll true and accurate.2., the central bank implements a tight monetary policy. The essence of Chinas inflation is goodsCurrency issues, the flow of funds to the real est
33、ate sector and property related industries,Reference:Other industries, mainly food and other industries invested by SMEs, do notSupply has declined, so prices have gone up, and now Chinas property is in a bubble,If not curbed, there may be a crash phenomenon, when the economic losses will be even wo
34、rseTherefore, the central bank should adopt a tight monetary policy to solve the problemThe means is to raise the legal reserve requirement ratio.3., curb prices rising too quickly. The price of real estate is in the whole price system,In an important position of basic prices, housing as the largest
35、 amount of living capitalTherefore, housing prices should be taken as labor forceFactor price,Also affect the cost of production of goods, and ultimately affect oneCut the price of goods. Since 2009, with the gradual recovery of Chinas economy, the housingAnother surge in prices has led to heated di
36、scussions about the property bubblePrices in point areas even rose by more than a month10%, up more than a year100%.Although the country has introduced a series of policies to curb the rapid rise in housing prices, has been playedSome effects, but the consumption of the house still accounts for the
37、total income of the residentsGross。 Therefore, the current suppression of housing prices rising too fast to ease inflationStress is critical.4., accelerate the transformation of economic development mode. In changing the mode of economic development, foreign countriesThe development has already accu
38、mulated a lot of experience. If Britain manages it1979 - 1981During the years inflation, the industrial structure was repeatedly adjusted to enhance competitiveness in industrial knotsWe adopted a constructive intervention policy, namely, to increase the impact on high-tech industriesFinancial aid t
39、o stimulate the traditional industrial enterprises in the transformation of a large number of new technology workersArt, competition, the privatization of state-owned enterprises and the encouragement of employee stock ownership. andFrance in the economic crisis, the scientific and technological pro
40、gress as the driving force to accelerate the industrial structureThe adjustment has injected new vitality into the traditional sector into recession, and for the development of enterprisesCreate a good environment, while contraction of traditional industries, and vigorously develop new and high tech
41、nologyIndustry, the upgrading of industrial structure, from labor and capital intensive to capital intensiveType transformation. China should also draw on its methods and adopt macro methods in solving existing problemsRegulation, to intervene to maintain the basic stability of market prices, accele
42、rate the transformation of the economyThe development methods and main measures are summarized as follows: (1) adjust the industrial structureStructure, contraction of traditional industries, and vigorously develop high-tech industries; (2) to achieve industrial clustersStructural upgrading shifts f
43、rom labor and resource intensive to capital intensive. By the aboveMeasures to increase labor productivity faster than factor costsIncrease the factor input output ratio and total factor productivity. In this way, talentFundamentally addressing the threat of inflation driven by cost, and ultimately
44、promoting the economy inDevelop rapidly and steadily over a long period of time.1 Xie Taifeng, Prince Bo. Research on the output gap and inflation, J. economic and management Chinese recent 2008, (2).2, He Ying, Zhou Ningning. Research on the relationship between money supply and inflation J. search
45、, 2010, (6)3, Xiao Nan, Wang Xuan. Background influence and management of inflation expectation at present stage. J. macro economic observation, 2010, (6)4 Tian Xin. On the method of solving inflation problem in China at present stage J. contemporary economy, 2010, (7)The contribution of 5. China inflation causes and characteristics of J. financial management and research, 2007, (10).editor in chief Wu Gaojun-Ten-