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1、国债融资与税制结构的政策取向Government debt financing and policy orientation of tax structureGovernment debt financing and tax structure policy orientation 2008-12-20 15:10:21First, the analysis of the deviation of Chinas national debt risk measurement indicatorsIn 1950 the peoples victory bond (the first phase o
2、f 100 million yuan, total 260 million yuan, a period of 5 years, the interest rate of 5%) the first new China bonds issued since 1981 in China, the government once again issued treasury bonds of 4 billion 866 million yuan, the scale of treasury bonds has increased year by year, especially in 1994 to
3、 stop the currency financing way of financial overdraft, the issuance of treasury bonds the scale has leapt to a new level. In 1999, the amount of treasury bonds issued was 401 billion 500 million yuan, and the balance of national debt reached 10542 yuan, breaking through the 1 trillion yuan mark fo
4、r the first time. The expansion of the total national debt and the decline of the financial share lead to worries about the growth space and debt risk of the national debt scale. The scale of national debt fundamentally, mainly depends on the level of economic development, the process of marketizati
5、on, and utilization of idle resources, balance of payments, the government macro-control ability, the factors of debt capital use efficiency and the public degree of sacrifice and comprehension etc. As far as the domestic financing approach is concerned, the quantity limit of the issuing scale of th
6、e national debt mainly depends on the solvency of the government and the Treasury, and the surplus stock of the household savings which can be absorbed by the national debt. At present, there are two kinds of indicators to measure whether the scale of national debt is reasonable:One is to reflect th
7、e scale of national debt from the scope of national economy: (1) the proportion of national debt balance of GDP is the national debt burden; (2) the proportion of the amount of national debt issued in the year accounts for the proportion of the residents savings balance, that is, the debt capacity o
8、f residents.The second is related to the financial revenue and expenditure reflects the scale of national debt index: (1) the year debt service accounted for the proportion of fiscal revenue is the government solvency; (2) the amount of national debt accounted for the proportion of fiscal expenditur
9、e is the national debt dependence degree (also can be divided into the national debt dependence and central finance).These indicators have different weights in affecting the scale of treasury bonds issue. The research shows that the influence index of the growth rate of the national debt issuing sca
10、le is the debt paying ratio of the national debt, the debt paying power of the residents, the debt dependence degree and the public debt burden rate.The contradiction between the expansion of the national debt scale and the decline of the financial share can be reflected in the statistical analysis
11、table of the financial debt index (Table 1). Although the national debt dependence is still below 30%, the debt dependence of the central government is as high as 50%, much higher than the internationally recognized safety line 10% - 30%. This is mainly concentrated in the central power of issuing b
12、onds, and local finance has no right to issue bonds. The index reflects the central financial risk caused by the expansion of national debt scale. 19911998 years, the average level of Chinas national debt burden is 6.83%, even after 1998, the scale of debt issuance rose sharply, the balance of natio
13、nal debt in 1999 accounted for only 12.69% of gdp. This level is at a relatively low level, compared with the developed countries, or the countries with larger deficits, or with the average of 30.1%, 33.5% and 15.3% of the newly industrialized Asian countries. According to the index of dependence on
14、 national debt, the level of dependence on national debt of about 55% is far higher than the average of 10%, 24.5% and 1.6% in the three countries mentioned above. This shows that fiscal expenditure is more dependent on national debt. The Treasury debt service ratio began to exceed 15% of the securi
15、ty limit by 1997. But strangely, from the residents burden rate and the national debt burden rate, it is far below the international warning line 45%. The root cause of the deviation between the indicators lies in the decline of the financial share caused by the distorted income distribution pattern
16、.Two, analysis and opinion on the reality of fiscal shareFrom 1982 to 1999 data, the proportion of the overall fiscal revenue to GDP a Pandie trend with the traditional Wagner law (i.e. the income scale with the growth of the national economy and a rising trend) showing the characteristics significa
17、ntly deviated from the. By 1999, Chinas fiscal revenue accounted for only 13% of gdp,It is one of the countries with the lowest level in the world. The decline in government revenues led to a decrease in the proportion of financial investment to total social investment, only 5.8% in the 1 quarter of
18、 2000. This is further exacerbated by the reverse movement of the fiscal expenditure policy and fiscal revenue policy: from the expenditure direction of fiscal policy is expansionary fiscal policy is tightening, see from the income and the income policy direction, the shrinkage degree is higher than
19、 the former, to a certain extent restrict the debt scale. As a result, the proportion of financial revenue in GDP has declined year by year, while the proportion of treasury bonds issued by GDP has increased year by year. Thus, the government debt index from the financial point of view is generally
20、higher, and the index from the perspective of the total amount is low. From the high debt dependence, Treasury debt paying rate and the proportion of financial GDP decline and the proportion of treasury bonds accounted for the rise of GDP, the financial pressure is great. Although there are two indi
21、cators of the national debt burden rate and the residents burden rate, there is still some room for growth in the scale of national debt. However, fiscal revenue occupies an important position in the scale of restricting the issuance of Treasury bonds.How to view the financial and debt rise decline
22、in the share of this phenomenon, we think, from the general trend of Chinas fiscal revenue accounted for the proportion of the total income and GDP showed different degrees of decline. The main reason is that since the reform and opening up, China has basically pursued the policy of decentralization
23、 and profit sharing, and the income distribution pattern has been tilted to the residents. From the proportion of total tax revenue to GDP, the conclusion can be drawn clearly. The proportion of tax revenue to GDP declined by an average of 3.973% in 19851997 years, reaching only 10.18% at the bottom
24、 of 1996, 25% and 60% of the average in developed and developing countries. 1986 to 1995 years average tax elasticity value was 0.527 and the average marginal propensity of tax is only 0.076, almost no flexibility, the actual growth of revenue rate is far lower than the actual growth rate of the eco
25、nomy (China statistical yearbook 1996, p42, 227). During this period, the government mainly made up for the loss of tax cuts due to tax cuts. After 90s, the pattern of income distribution changed again. With the economic structure tends to be reasonable, state-owned enterprises gradually out of the
26、decline channel, the government continues to decline in the proportion of income distribution trend began to reverse. In 1995 the total tax revenue accounted for the proportion of GDP gradually stabilized, so that the revenue share of GDP from 1995 began to rally. The proportion of fiscal revenue in
27、 GDP in the past 19951999 years was basically stable over 10%, and showed a slightly upward trend (see Figure 1). This trend coincides with the trend of the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP in western developed countries after World War ii.From the composition of government revenue in China, the
28、government revenue equals the budgetary revenue + the extra budgetary revenue and the non standard public revenue. The fiscal revenue used in the conventional analysis refers to the revenue from the financial budget. If we simply use fiscal revenue as a proportion of GDP, it is obviously inappropria
29、te to compare with foreign countries. Chinas central government and local government and local governments at all levels between the base method of income division, induced by the local government to try not to put money into the local budget revenue, resulting in budgetary fiscal revenues continue
30、to decline, the budget revenue is rising trend in the overall trend. During the 19781992 years, the amount of budget foreign capital expanded to 385 billion 492 million yuan, 11 times more than that of the same period, which was 3.6 times higher than that of the same period. Especially since 1994, t
31、he growth rate of extra budgetary funds has risen sharply, nearly doubled by 1996, reaching 61.7%. If from the perspective of the governments total income, the proportion of Chinas actual fiscal revenue to GDP is roughly 25%. Therefore, we have reason to believe that in the next few years, the propo
32、rtion of fiscal revenue in GDP and total income can basically maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. Fiscal revenue is the foundation of government operation. The key to enlarging the scale of issuing bonds and reducing the risk of debt lies in rebuilding the finance. On the one hand, impr
33、ove the two proportion,At least the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP and the proportion of the central government revenue to the national revenue increase to the same level as the developing countries, namely 20% and 60%. On the other hand, we should not blindly increase the two proportion of our
34、 government revenue. The theory and practice in foreign countries have proved that too high and too low financial proportion is harmful to the long-term and stable development of the economy. The low proportion of weakening the influence of the government in the public sector, undermining government
35、 in macroeconomic regulation and control the status of the protagonist, and the low proportion of the government often leads to a substantial increase in fiscal deficits, debt risk surged, brings the negative influence to the overall economic operation. Although the high proportion of government fin
36、ancial resources has improved, but the mandatory high accumulation of high investment not only brings low efficiency, and is more of a decline in consumption economic inactivation, the era of the planned economy in Eastern Europe and China is evidenced by the practice. At present, the proportion of
37、the world in the national economy in the financial sector has not yet been clearly defined. The determination of this proportion should be based on the level of economic development and the objectives of macroeconomic regulation and control.Three, the study of treasury bond financing and tax environ
38、ment and fiscal policy orientationEmpirical analysis of the relationship between macro tax burden level and economic growth in ChinaTax policy is indispensable to enhance financial share. As one of the four major sources of government revenue (tax financing, income financing, debt financing and fund
39、 financing), tax plays an important role in the government revenue of any country. There is a certain functional relationship between tax revenue and economic growth. Kean Marsden (1983) an empirical analysis of the relationship between the macro tax system in 21 countries and economic growth, draw
40、the following conclusions: low tax countries GDP per capita growth rate of 7.3%, higher than the national 1.6% high tax levels; low tax countries public consumption and private consumption growth is higher than that of the high tax countries; low investment growth the national tax rate of 8.9%, whil
41、e investment growth over the same period the high tax rate is only 6.8%; in addition, the low tax countries in the export growth rate, employment rate and labor productivity is higher than the high tax countries. The stimulative effect of tax reduction on economy is obvious. The low tax policy has g
42、reatly increased the yield of capital and other factors of production, stimulated investment and consumption, and thus increased output. On the other hand, low tax can promote the transfer of resources from inefficient areas to efficient areas, and improve the efficiency of resource allocation. In 8
43、0s, tax reduction became the core of tax reform. In the past 19811989 years, the personal income tax in the United States dropped from 50% to 28%, and the corporate income tax decreased from 46% to 34%. Some developing countries, such as Thailand and South Korea, have also introduced tax cuts to sti
44、mulate economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the road of economic growth in China is a way of tax reduction and profit reduction. It is undeniable that the reduction of tax burden plays a role in economic development. After 90s, what is the relationship between tax burden and economic gr
45、owth in China? Domestic scholars believe that in the past 19811993 years, Chinas total tax burden and economic growth show a very weak negative correlation. We are based on the data from 1985 to 1997 (the use of SAS expand function of the annual data into monthly data after analysis), the relationsh
46、ip between the growth rate of GDP and the level of macro tax burden of regression and correlation analysis, basically reached the same conclusion (correlation coefficient: 0.174). But considering the 1985 to 1993 years the government introduced tax and business tax reform efforts in large measure, m
47、ay have some impact on the results. Therefore, we take the 1994 as a watershed, respectively, for 19851993 years of data and 19941997 years of data for a period of analysis. 1986 1993 years between GDP growth and macro tax burden is greatly improved the degree of correlation (correlation coefficient
48、: 0.540). This shows that the contribution of tax cuts to the economy is greater. 19941997 years,The influence of GDP growth rate and macro tax burden is obviously weakened (correlation coefficient is: 0.109). It is also this period that Chinas economic growth mode began to shift from consumption le
49、d to investment led, the reform was strengthened, and the economic growth rate slowed down. The negative impact of tax burden and GDP growth rate is also in line with reality.(two) the empirical analysis of macro tax burden environment and actual levelIn view of the low proportion of tax revenue in China, there is little room for tax reduction in gdp. From 1994, the macro tax burden and economic growth in our country does not show that the negative correlation between the strong and wea