《TMBBANK(TMB)：COMEBACKOFTHEUNDERDOG0109.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《TMBBANK(TMB)：COMEBACKOFTHEUNDERDOG0109.ppt（12页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、Oct-12,May-12,Dec-12,Jan-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,Sep-12,1,417.33,43,550,2,860,43.76,TMB,7.6,10.8,N.A.,1.39,N.A.,-10,-20,40,30,20,10,0,-,-,Thailand,Company Update Buy (Upgraded from sell),TMB Bank (TMB) Comeback Of The Underdog,9 January 2013,Share price: Target price:,Bt2.08 Bt2.50 (from Bt1.64),Upgrade to
2、 BUY. We are upgrading TMB to a BUY (from SELL) with a new target price of THB2.50. We raise our FY12-14F earnings forecasts by 9%, 22% and 42%, respectively, to incorporate strong loan growth, NIM expansion, better operating efficiency and asset quality,Woraphon Wiroonsri, CFA Termporn.tmaybank-ke.
3、co.th (02) 658 6300 Stock Information Description: The Bank engages in universal banking business to serve corporate, SME, and retail customers. ING Bank B.V., a large financial group in Europe is its strategic partner and is its major shareholder as well as Ministry of Finance. The Bank also conduc
4、ts its business through a nationwide branch network and in certain major centers of the world. TMB was listed on the SET in December 1983. Ticker : Shares Issued (mn) : Market Cap (US$mn): 3-mth Avg. Daily Turnover (US$mn): SET Index: Free float (%):,improvements. TMB shares have underperformed over
5、 the past two years, in contrast with its very gradually improving operational performance. Current valuations do not look cheap, but are still attractive when compared to its earnings growth prospects and rising ROE. We believe that TMB will be interesting as a turnaround stock. Continuing improvem
6、ents drive earnings growth momentum. Since the 1997 banking crisis, TMB has had longstanding story about a pending merger and capital increases. TMB reported huge losses due mainly to poor asset quality and dismal operating efficiency. However, after the entry of CEO Mr. Boontuck, its performance gr
7、adually improved. It has become a leader in transactional banking, focusing on fee income and high-yield, short-term SME loans. Also, it has restructured its funding base in an attempt to lower funding costs. A cost control programme has improved operating efficiency, and its asset quality problem h
8、as been solved. We believe that TMB has successfully restructured its business, and a growth phase should ensue. ROE hitting 13.3% by FY14F. We raise our FY12-14F net profit forecasts by 9%, 22% and 42%, respectively, on improvements in its loan growth, NIM, and cost-to-income ratio. Although FY13F
9、net profit will grow just 14.8%YoY (sector average is 23%) owing to tax expenses following the end of tax loss carry-forward benefits, we expect TMBs pre- nd tax profit growth to be outstanding at 42.5%YoY, (2 to TCAP). We also,Major Shareholders : Ministry of Finance ING BANK N.V. Key Indicators RO
10、E annualised (%) Net cash (Btmn): NTA/shr (Btmn): Interest cover (x): Historical Chart,% 26.09 25.19,expect strong earnings growth in FY14F, at 34.2% YoY. This will help boost ROEs to 13.3%, vs. below 10% in the past. 4Q12F results, to be announced next week, will likely show positive momentum conti
11、nuing from 3Q12. Net profit for the quarter is expected at THB1.75b, up 22% QoQ and 80% YoY, and the highest level since 1Q06. A turnaround stock. Over the past two years, TMB shares have underperformed the market and the SETBANK index. However, operational improvements and accelerating earnings gro
12、wth momentum make TMB a turnaround stock this year, in our view. Our FY13-14F projections are now 16% and 34% above consensus estimates, and we expect to their upgrades especially after the 4Q12 results announcement. Currently trading at 1.4x PBV (its historical average) and 13.8x PER on our estimat
13、es, the stock is not too expensive in light of an improving earnings performance and with ROEs expected rise to 13.3% in FY14F. We believe TMB should be re-rated and thus upgrade it to a BUY with a new target price of THB2.50, based on a PBV of 1.79x (+1S.D. to its historical average). TMB Summary E
14、arnings Table FYE: Dec 31 (Btmn) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F Operating Income 16,167 20,817 24,258 27,578 31,299,Pre-provisioning Profit Profit Before Tax Recurring Net Profit,4,879 3,225 3,202,7,176 4,072 4,009,10,150 5,549 5,480,13,304 7,905 6,289,16,064 10,612 8,443,Performance 52-week High/Low,TMB,SET Bt2.04/Bt1.40,Recurring Basic EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) DPS (Bt) PER (x) Div Yield (%),0.07 64.6 0.02 32.1 0.6,0.09 25.2 0.03 17.2 1.9,0.13 36.7 0.04 15.9 2.0,0.14 14.8 0.05 13.8 2.3,0.19 34.2 0.06 10.3 3.0,1-mth,3-mth,6-mth,1-yrs,YTD,P/BV (x),2.1,1.3,1.6,1.4,