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1、2018年了解中国的崛起演讲稿-范文精选The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If you look at the chart at the top here, youll see that in 2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, its
2、projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be almost the same size as the American economy. And we should bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up before the Western financial crisis.A couple of weeks ago, I was lookin
3、g at the latest projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected 2027. The post-crisis projection is 2020. Thats just a decade away. China is going to change the world in two fundamental respects. First of all, its a huge developing
4、country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year.And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest economy in the world been that of a developing country, rather than
5、 a developed country. Secondly, for the first time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world - which I think is what China will become - will be not from the West and from very, very different civilizational roots.Now I know its a widespread assumption in the West that, as countries moder
6、nize, they also Westernize. This is an illusion. Its an assumption that modernity is a product simply of competition, markets and technology. It is not; it is also shaped equally by history and culture. China is not like the West, and it will not become like the West. It will remain in very fundamen
7、tal respects very different. Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense of China? How do we try to understand what China is? And the problem we have in the West at the moment by-and-large is that the conventional approach is that we understand it really in Western terms, using West
8、ern ideas. We cant. Now I want to offer you three building blocks for trying to understand what China is like - just as a beginning.Now what is extraordinary about this is, what gives China its sense of being China, what gives the Chinese the sense of what it is to be Chinese, comes not from the las
9、t hundred years, not from the nation state period, which is what happened in the West, but from the period, if you like, of the civilization state. Im thinking here, for example, of customs like ancestral worship, of a very distinctive notion of the state, likewise, a very distinctive notion of the
10、family, social relationships like guanxi, Confucian values and so on. These are all things that come from the period of the civilization state. In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world, is shaped by its sense of civilization, its existence as a civilization st
11、ate, rather than as a nation state. And theres one other thing to add to this, and that is this: Of course we know Chinas big, huge, demographically and geographically, with a population of 1.3 billion people. What we often arent really aware of is the fact that China is extremely diverse and very p
12、luralistic, and in many ways very decentralized. You cant run a place on this scale simply from Beijing, even though we think this to be the case. Its never been the case.So this is China, a civilization state, rather than a nation state. And what does it mean? Well I think it has all sorts of profo
13、und implications. Ill give you two quick ones. The first is that the most important political value for the Chinese is unity, is the maintenance of Chinese civilization. You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe: breakdown, the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire Roman Empire. It divided, and its remaine
14、d divided ever since. China, over the same time period, went in exactly the opposite direction, very painfully holding this huge civilization, civilization state together.The second is maybe more prosaic, which is Hong Kong. Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong by Britain to China in 1997? You
15、may remember what the Chinese constitutional proposition was. One country, two systems. And Ill lay a wager that barely anyone in the West believed them. Window dressing. When China gets its hands on Hong Kong, that wont be the case. 13 years on, the political and legal system in Hong Kong is as dif
16、ferent now as it was in 1997. We were wrong. Why were we wrong? We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough, in nation state ways. Think of German unification, 1990. What happened? Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West. One nation, one system. That is the nation state mentality.
17、But you cant run a country like China, a civilization state, on the basis of one civilization, one system. It doesnt work. So actually the response of China to the question of Hong Kong - as it will be to the question of Taiwan - was a natural response: one civilization, many systems.Now the great a
18、dvantage of this historical experience has been that, without the Han, China could never have held together. The Han identity has been the cement which has held this country together. The great disadvantage of it is that the Han have a very weak conception of cultural difference. They really believe
19、 in their own superiority, and they are disrespectful of those who are not. Hence their attitude, for example, to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.Or let me give you my third building block, the Chinese state. Now the relationship between the state and society in China is very different from that in
20、the West. Now we in the West overwhelmingly seem to think - in these days at least - that the authority and legitimacy of the state is a function of democracy. The problem with this proposition is that the Chinese state enjoys more legitimacy and more authority amongst the Chinese than is true with
21、any Western state. And the reason for this is because - well, there are two reasons, I think. And its obviously got nothing to do with democracy, because in our terms the Chinese certainly dont have a democracy. And the reason for this is, firstly, because the state in China is given a very special
22、- it enjoys a very special significance as the representative, the embodiment and the guardian of Chinese civilization, of the civilization state. This is as close as China gets to a kind of spiritual role.And the second reason is because, whereas in Europe and North America, the states power is con
23、tinuously challenged - I mean in the European tradition, historically against the church, against other sectors of the aristocracy, against merchants and so on - for 1,000 years, the power of the Chinese state has not been challenged. Its had no serious rivals. So you can see that the way in which p
24、ower has been constructed in China is very different from our experience in Western history. The result, by the way, is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state. Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder, a stranger, certainly an organ whose powers need to be limited or defined and c
25、onstrained, the Chinese dont see the state like that at all. The Chinese view the state as an intimate - not just as an intimate actually, as a member of the family - not just in fact as a member of the family, but as the head of the family, the patriarch of the family. This is the Chinese view of t
26、he state - very, very different to ours. Its embedded in society in a different kind of way to what is the case in the West.And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here, in the Chinese context, is a new kind of paradigm, which is different from anything weve had to think ab
27、out in the past. Know that China believes in the market and the state. I mean, Adam Smith, already writing in the late 18th century said, The Chinese market is larger and more developed and more sophisticated than anything in Europe. And, apart from the Mao period, that has remained more-or-less the
28、 case ever since. But this is combined with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state. The state is everywhere in China. I mean, its leading firms, many of them are still publicly owned. Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo, depend in many ways on state patronage. Targets for the econom
29、y and so on are set by the state. And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas - as we are familiar with - with something like the the one-child policy.Moreover, this is a very old state tradition, a very old tradition of statecraft. I mean, if you want an illustration of t
30、his, the Great Wall is one. But this is another, this is the Grand Canal, which was constructed in the first instance in the fifth century B.C. and was finally completed in the seventh century A.D. It went for 1,114 miles, linking Beijing with Hangzhou and Shanghai. So theres a long history of extra
31、ordinary state infrastructural projects in China, which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today, which is something like the Three Gorges Dam and many other expressions of state competence within China. So there we have three building blocks for trying to to understand the difference that is
32、 China - the civilization state, the notion of race and the nature of the state and its relationship to society.And yet we still insist, by-and-large, in thinking that we can understand China by simply drawing on Western experience, looking at it through Western eyes, using Western concepts. If you
33、want to know why we unerringly seem to get China wrong - our predictions about whats going to happen to China are incorrect - this is the reason. Unfortunately I think, I have to say that I think attitude towards China is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality. Its kind of arrogant. Its arroga
34、nt in the sense that we think that we are best, and therefore we have the universal measure. And secondly, its ignorant. We refuse to really address the issue of difference. You know, theres a very interesting passage in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian. And Paul Cohen argues that the We
35、st thinks of itself as probably the most cosmopolitan of all cultures. But its not. In many ways, its the most parochial, because for 200 years, the West has been so dominant in the world that its not really needed to understand other cultures, other civilizations. Because, at the end of the day, it
36、 could, if necessary by force, get its own way. Whereas those cultures - virtually the rest of the world, in fact - which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West, have been thereby forced to understand the West, because of the Wests presence in those societies. And therefore, they are
37、, as a result, more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.I mean, take the question of East Asia. East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. - a third of the worlds population lives there, now the largest economic region in the world. And Ill tell you now, that East Asianers, people from East Asia, are
38、far more knowledgeable about the West than the West is about East Asia. Now this point is very germane, Im afraid, to the present. Because whats happening? Back to that chart at the beginning - the Goldman Sachs chart. What is happening is that, very rapidly in historical terms, the world is being d
39、riven and shaped, not by the old developed countries, but by the developing world. Weve seen this in terms of the G20 - usurping very rapidly the position of the G7, or the G8. And there are two consequences of this. First, the West is rapidly losing its influence in the world. There was a dramatic
40、illustration of this actually a year ago - Copenhagen, climate change conference. Europe was not at the final negotiating table. When did that last happen? I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago. And that is what is going to happen in the future.And the second implication is that the worl
41、d will inevitably, as a consequence, become increasingly unfamiliar to us, because itll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories that we are not really familiar with, or conversant with. And at last, Im afraid - take Europe, America is slightly different - but Europeans by and large, I ha
42、ve to say, are ignorant, are unaware about the way the world is changing. Some people - Ive got an English friend in China, and he said, The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion. Well, maybe thats true, maybe thats an exaggeration. But theres another problem which goes along with this - that Euro
43、pe is increasingly out of touch with the world - and that is a sort of loss of a sense of the future. I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future in its confidence. Take the 19th century for example. But this, alas, is no longer true.你相信 “ 人若有志，就不会在半坡停止。 ” 就学习的阶段性而言，你处在初中的半山腰；就你进步的阶段而言
44、，你也处在半山腰，这座右铭包含了你对自己的鼓励 ，希望你能真正意义上的做到勇往直前！Okay, so how would I like to finish? Well, what should our attitude be towards this world that we see very rapidly developing before us? I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it. But I want to argue, above all, a big p
45、icture positive for this world. For 200 years, the world was essentially governed by a fragment of the human population. Thats what Europe and North America represented. The arrival of countries like China and India - between them 38 percent of the worlds population - and others like Indonesia and B
46、razil and so on, represent the most important single act of democratization in the last 200 years. Civilizations and cultures, which had been ignored, which had no voice, which were not listened to, which were not known about, will have a different sort of representation in this world. As humanists,
47、 we must welcome, surely, this transformation. And we will have to learn about these civilizations.“ 要谦虚，要坚持到底。 ” 这不是哪位伟人的话吧？在作文中好几次你杜撰了比较切合文意的 “ 名言 ” ，这两个 “ 要 ” 是你对自己的要求自己了。确实，聪明的你努力之后总有丰厚的收获，但之后你便又会回到原地。进入初三，希望你 “ 坚持 ” ！This big ship here was the one sailed in by Zheng He in the early 15th century
48、 on his great voyages around the South China Sea, the East China Sea and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa. The little boat in front of it was the one in which, 80 years later, Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic. (Laughter) Or, look carefully at this silk scroll made by ZhuZhou in 1368. I think theyre playing golf. Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.性情泼辣，热情大方的你，让我想到一句歌词： “ 该出手时就出手，风风火火闯九州。 ” 大有巾帼不让须眉的气势。思维活跃，创造力强，对于任何的挑战都能主动出击，把握住每一次机会，虽每一次未必都能成功，但你挫折打不倒你 “ 我永远是最棒的 ” 的信心，你总能调整前进的步伐，不断进取。Welcome to the future. Thank you.