《会计英语ppt课件.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《会计英语ppt课件.ppt（25页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、COURSE OUTLINE Part 1:Research Methods in ACC/FIN Part 2: Basic Theoretical Issues in ACC/FIN Part 3: Special Topic in ACC/FIN,ACC/FIN RESEARCH METHODS INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH,Cui Zhe School of Business Nantong University,OBJECTIVE,To ensure you have the skills necessary to produce an excellent dis
2、sertation,STRUCTURE,From developing the idea to presenting the completed piece of research Developing the idea Formulating testable hypotheses traditional approach Theoretical modelling Developing a research plan Models Data Published, existing, to be collected, qualitative and quantitative Analysis
3、 Writing, presentation, review,5,THE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH PROCESS,STRUCTURE(2),1 Searching the literature for ideas, previous experience and a plausible way forward Week 1 information bases available Project select the broad area in which you plan to work find 10 (or more) useful articles written on
4、the topic read them and set out their main features this develops a knowledge base Assignment make a detailed appraisal of an article How does it go about the research process Critical appraisal - pluses/minuses, what do I learn from it for my research? Designing the analysis General issues - myself
5、 Specific examples from subject areas Cahan/Berkman/Rouse,GETTING STARTED,Dont rush Choose something you are interested in Something which is useful to the rest of your work or what you want to do next It must be achievable, which normally means something narrow Listen to advice Look at some example
6、s of successful work Find a supervisor you think you can work with!,STEP 1 GET A NOTEBOOK,A research diary Record your thought process and your actions Make a note of what you agreed with your supervisor you might even want to send them a copy Over-riding theme BE METHODICAL When you get to the lite
7、rature review take careful notes set up some sort of filing system It is your choice whether it is electronic, physical or a combination but Endnote is useful for references When you have got your topic set up a research Plan what do you need to do how long will it take? A Gantt chart is helpful rec
8、ord progress against plan Good research is systematic, logical, objective and critical enthusiasm is good, passion dangerous,A WARNING,Accounting and finance deal with human behaviour it is not hard science Findings will be tentative Human beings are complex we can only model part of their behaviour
9、 They are not consistent They learn Data are always difficult and expensive to obtain Linearity is often misleading asymmetry, big vs small changes Data may consistent with several theories,A RESEARCH PROBLEM,A specific problem within the research topic Most important component of the research proce
10、ss Ideal characteristics Fills a gap within the research topic Improves our understanding of the research topic Relevance to firms / practitioners / regulators “Researchable” Theory driven, MONETARY POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS AND STOCK REACTIONS ,MOTIVATION,There is some evidence from the UK that financia
11、l markets responses to monetary policy have been completely different in the present crisis from the 10 years beforehand We thought this surprising and wanted to see whether it applied elsewhere, particularly to the euro area and also to Australia and New Zealand, or whether it was due to something
12、peculiar to the UK,FINDINGS,Although the UK finding is repeated for the euro area it is not found for Australia or New Zealand we therefore conclude that it is the result of hitting the zero bound for interest rates and not an unusual change in behaviour We show that behaviour is clearly asymmetric
13、over the economic cycle with much stronger reactions in growth than in downturns We show a second asymmetry in that markets do not respond in the same way to positive as they do to negative shocks,A PRELIMINARY,Financial markets respond to surprises not expected changes Central banks operate monetar
14、y policy by setting short-run interest rates at regular intervals We measure expectations by interest rate futures prices We look at the behaviour of the Bank of England, the Eurosystem and the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand for as long as they have been announcing decisions,WHAT DO WE E
15、XPECT?,If interest rates are set higher than expected markets will think that stock price returns in the future will be lower than they previously thought (and symmetrically for a downward surprise) i.e. stock prices and surprises will be inversely related,ESTIMATED MODEL,(Bernanke and Kuttner, 2005
16、), rt = a + b PRet + c PRut + Xtd + t (1) where rt refers to the one-day return of a stock index on announcement day t, and PR refers to the policy rate, e denoting the expected change and u the unexpected change. X is a vector of all the other identifiable factors, other than policy rate changes, w
17、hich affect the announcement day returns. a, b, c and d are parameters and is the residual.,ESTIMATED MODEL,The surprise component is calculated as the one-day change in the futures implied rate: PRut = fm, t fm, t-1 (2) where fm, t refers to the futures rate on the announcement day (month m, day t)
18、. The expected component of the rate change is then: PRet = PRt PRut (3),OUR ANALYSIS,We look at the behaviour of stock prices on the day of interest rate announcements by each central bank We divide the data period in two pre and post crisis. We define the crisis as beginning with the collapse of L
19、ehman Brothers in September 2008 We find that there is indeed a change for both the UK and the euro area but that it is better dated from when their short run interest rates effectively reached zero the sign of the relationship is reversed There is no change for Australia and New Zealand who did not
20、 reach zero The relationship is disturbed over September-November 2008 in all countries,OUR ANALYSIS (2),We divide the data into periods of economic growth and contraction We find that the expected inverse relationship is clear in periods of economic expansion but not in periods of contraction (ther
21、e are too few periods of contraction in Australia to make this judgement) When we combine the crisis and this distinction between growth and recession there is no impact in Australia and New Zealand from the crisis,OUR ANALYSIS (3),We distinguish positive from negative surprises and find that reacti
22、ons are not the same We are not able to say whether reactions to positive and negative surprises also vary across the economic cycle A proviso contrary to theory we find in some cases that expected changes have an effect on stock prices The easiest reason for this is that we mismeasure expectations
23、this is bad news as it would mean that we also measure surprises wrongly (Surprise = Actual Expectation),OUR ANALYSIS (4),We also look at one aspect of New Zealand which is very interesting for monetary policy in the other areas NZ offers a view on how interest rates will evolve in the future (as do
24、 Sweden and Norway) Announcing that interest rates are likely to increase in future affects stock prices positively (it is symmetric for decreases) This is difficult to rationalise as with the recession perversity perhaps it is a reflection of the credibility of the central bank,IMPLICATIONS,Monetar
25、y policy surprises have more limited effect in downturns than when the economy is expanding Here we are only looking at stock prices but there is clear evidence (Mayes and Viren, 2011) that monetary policy has only a trivial impact on inflation and output in downturns The problem is even worse for t
26、he Bank of England and Eurosystem in the present crisis and may even be perverse because they have reached the zero interest rate bound,IMPLICATIONS(2),Peoples behaviour is clearly asymmetric. Not only do they react differently in contractions from expansions but they react differently to positive f
27、rom negative surprises (stock prices are affected far less by positive than negative surprises) Central banks need a sophisticated approach to setting policy They need to react early and rapidly to stimulate action in a downturn to avoid being caught by the zero bound Positive surprises may not achi
28、eve much in an upturn (surprises by definition cannot be repeated),FINAL REMARK,The outlook for monetary policy in making a contribution to revitalising the European economies is poor New Zealand and especially Australia have more scope for action should prospects worsen,FUTURE WORK,We might be able to tackle the zero bound problem by using a term structure equation, say of the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson variety. This would generate negative rates in the 3-month/overnight band and hence we would be able to observe differences on the announcement days despite actual zero rates (Kripner 2012),