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1、德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM董事长,Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation) in general management from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at lead
2、ing European business schools, e.g. St. Gallen University, Rotterdam School of Management, European Business School and ESADE Barcelona. He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden. He is the founder of CeTIM Center for Technology and Innovation Management, which is l
3、ocated at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management. His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.,Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 移动与数
4、字融合成长曲线2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy, CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma, CeTIM CeTIM.org,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops,ROADiBROM is a joint European China strategic roadmap about “Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ” The o
5、bjective is to: develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China. Intended Outcome: Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence (NEM International Cooperation) Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM SSA),Background of Roadibrom,A balanced EU-Ch
6、ina Project Consortium,Why digital convergence?,Media convergence Video Voice Data Device convergence: Computer TV Mobile Phone,Technology Push:,Business & Societal Impact:,Changes of Individual living Emerging business models Impact on society,Investigating: What will the converged world looks like
7、? What are the critical choices we confront with? How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?,China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries, e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc. China does not have a national standard for Mobile digit
8、al broadcasting China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006) The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.,Why China?,Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW,Media Industr
9、y at the verge of disruptive change?!,Will it happen or not? How will it happen? What will come out?,(Moore 1991),Disruptive Innovation implies change of institutions, firms, industries,Time,Rate of Innovation,Process Innovation,Product Innovation,Fluid Pattern,Transitional Pattern,Specific Pattern,
10、Dominant Design,THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN,Industry level change,2015,2007,Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE, Business and institutional Change just START!,How specific patterns look like? How they are developed?,Governments: Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology
11、development to social and service innovation Companies: Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions entrants will emerge,What does it imply for Governments and industries,Signs: Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business Nokia is becoming a media company Goo
12、gle is regarded as the most valuable media company though not produce any content itself,Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation,Scenario Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios Analyze implications,Identify gap between s
13、tate-of-art and the specific Pattern,Time order Gaps (and R&D actions) = roadmap,The specific Pattern,Relevant dimensions of transformation,Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformat
14、ion process),Workshop Objective,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops,Technology view: Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data in an invisible way for users, who will be able to access services anywhere and anyhow.
15、User view: Communities of users supported by community coaches will become most active in user centric service offerings with renowned brands,Future Media Industry Scenario,Device view: Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature. Value Cha
16、in View: Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches, Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish. Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which will fund comm
17、unities and dedicated professional content production,Future Media Industry Scenario,Early Examples of of a digital converged world,Execution Saddam Hussein,Technology: Filmed with mobile phone Distributed within hours by YouTube,Industry Change: Production cost “Zero” Distributions cost “Zero” No j
18、ournalist involved: freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable No broadcasting stations,Presentation Outline,ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM workshops,The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct,35 participants from 10 Countries, discussed the critical challenges: Technology and Device Value Chain and Service,The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov,70 participants, discussing the critical challenges from Technology and device Service and Value Chain,The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities,www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence,谢谢! Thank you!,