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1、运营风险管理,波兰华沙大学,Programme,Aims and objectives: To give an integrated perspective on operational risk management To enhance basic skills of risk management development programmes Key topics: Key concepts of operational risk management Risk research and assessment Risk management,Traditional risk manage
2、ment deals with uncertainty of markets,NASDAQ Stock Exchange,Burst of New Economy,Boom of New Economy,Why to manage risk ?,Only few operational plans run according to the initial schedules and other assumptions There is nothing like an operational programme free of risks. A part of business challeng
3、e comes out from the risk behind them. There are many powers working against your plans. Many will enjoy your fall down. Sometimes the operational management requires unlikely decisions, when the unexpected occurs. It is not possible to forecast and programme a convenient reaction against any risk.
4、However a good manager how to adapt his plans to meet the risks.There is a very narrow gap between foolishness and a reasonable risk and it outcomes from a good understanding of potential losses and accepted risk for the owner and participants of the programme or project. Business is like a game. Ve
5、ry often a winners grabs the whole pool. Do you lack the luck, or maybe you are unprofessional ? Adapt or die !,Effects of business projects,Reality What is common for these projects / programmes ?,Eurotunnel Millennium Bug Barrings Bank (trade of derivatives) IRIDIUM cellular network Project Blue,W
6、hat is risk ?,Risk of unlikely events or circumstances Risk is related to the uncertainty Risk management includes: concepts, recommendations, procedures, methods and techniques, organisational structures, methodologies, which may reduce or eliminate the effects of unlikely events or circumstances,M
7、ajor errors of estimation of the risk-profit ratio,Case I: A project, which is too risky or costly is being run to its end (Eurotunnel). Effect: significantly lower risk or loss or even crash. Case II: A project rejected, which promised reasonable risk and exceptional profit (KNEX). Effect: win of a
8、 competitor.,Personal approaches to risk Dangerous characters and personalities,Alergically reacting to risk Drug-dependent people Ignorant Those, for whom there is no problem” up to the end,Assessment of risk occurrence Pattern scale,Scale of risk effects Pattern,Map of risk Two-dimensional matrix
9、of risk estimation P - E,Acceptable risk Fuzzy concept,Different perspectives on risk,Client Sponsor Clients owner Company Companys owner Insuring company Management (legal responsibility) Subcontractors Employees Competitors Government, local authorities etc. Public opinion,Morphology of risk,RISK,
10、Probability,Factors,Outcomes,Effects,Reasons,Causing events,Prevention,Reaction,Model of risk management process,Reporting Escalation Control Decisions,Aggregation,Monitoring,Performance,Identification,Analysis,Planning,Major ways to react against risk,Prevention Transfer of risk or its effects to o
11、thers (partner, insurance, forfeiting, factoring, other third parties) Compensation of risk (derivatives: forwards/futures/options, parallel transactions) Diversification / distribution of risk Contingencies Preventive / correcting actions and procedures No reaction acceptance of potential effects,C
12、ontingencies against risk,Price margin Balance sheet / budget Cash-flow Lead-time Materials and capacities (active or passive),Key steps of risk management,Identification of risks (reasons, outcomes, effects) Analysis of risks (probabilities, effects etc.) Risks mapping Programming of preventing and
13、 correcting activities (analysis and evaluation of potential variants): Elimination and reduction of risk impacts Programming of material, organisational (including preventive and correcting procedures) and financial contingencies Insurance and compensation of risk Implementation of the new componen
14、ts of risk management Processes and environment monitoring Reacting: initiation of correcting procedures,Planning of risk management,For each planned activity / operation / process: Identify risk, assess probability of occurrence Analyse risk factors (reasons, causing events, symptoms !) Identify po
15、ssible preventive and correcting actions Identify applicable contingencies Assess effectiveness of preventive and correcting actions and contingencies Select the best tools Implement (plans, procedures, priorities, documentation, monitoring, resources, finance),Key principles of risk management,Its
16、a continuous process, using outputs of operations and environment monitoring Risk management should be integrated with or even incorporated into operations management Preventive and correcting actions should be programmed Standardisation (e.g. scales of risks) Risk audits should be incorporated into
17、 company audits,Responsibilities of risk manager Risk manager is the owner of the risk problem,Management of risk analysis Management of programming of preventive and correcting activities Supervision of risk monitoring (milestones !) Control and supervision of preventive and correcting activities R
18、isk escalation procedures Supervision of risk related schedules, budgets, resources etc. Supervision of risk records,Key parties of risk management,Operations/Project Manager Risk Administrator Financial manager / Chief Accountant / Treasurer Bank / Insurance company / Broker Lawyer Risk manager Mar
19、keting manager Client Engineer Authorities,Key documents of risk management,Working documents: Maps of risks Scenarios, CEDAC diagrams Financial assessment of risks Risks records Calculations of safety funds and contingencies Plans-records of preventive and corrective activities Risk related organis
20、ational procedures Documentation related to insurance and compensation of risks,Reporting of risk,Major risks Risks distribution Significant changes of the level of risks Escalation reports Activities Costs Current estimation of required budgets for correcting actions,Methodologies for risk manageme
21、nt,What they offer: Checklist of risk reasons and factors Consistent methods for risk assessment Records, databases Pattern procedures Consistent reporting,Risk management in some project management methodologies,Major fields of business risk,Operations: Internal Risks related to deliveries and supp
22、liers Risks related to customers Risks related to subcontractors Investments Financial activities,Major factors of external risks,Market Law & legal system Act of God Contracts Transportation Contractors Price Transactions,Operations financing related risk Payment system (fund transfer infrastructur
23、e) Information infrastructure Financial risks Politics Spying, diversion Civilisation Environment,Key factors of internal risks,Personnel: Incompetence Morale (individual and overall) Resources: Bottlenecks / constraining resources Breakdowns Organisational: Poor organisational behaviour Systems and
24、 methods of operations management Lack of professional approach risk management Key effects of operational risks have impact on the QCD (Quality-Cost-Delivery) triad,Key tools of risk management (1) Scenario analysis,Expert method for prediction and projection of business processes Experts develop s
25、cenarios of: events, actions, outcomes, effects, states etc. Applied to actions planning, from strategic to operational level, e.g.: identification and analysis of risks cascades (waterfalls), preventive and corrective actions Scenario analysis may be based upon CEDAC diagrams,Key tools of risk mana
26、gement (2) CEDAC (Cause-and-effects diagrams K.Ishikawa),Types of CEDAC diagrams,Process classification type 1 (process structure on the central axe, causes added) Process classification type 2 (process structure out of the central axe, causes added) Risk factors Enumerative analysis of risk causes
27、and effects Implementation of CEDAC diagrams results in improved quality of the risk teamwork CEDAC diagrams are usually developed during brainstorming sessions,Key tools of risk management (3) Delphi method,Assessment by team of experts (10 - 50) Opinions are agreed by anonymous questionnaire revie
28、ws Aimed at minimisation of inter-quartile intervals First questionnaire includes the basic question and competence self-evaluation Following questionnaires include: Medians and inter-quartile intervals for recent answers Her/his recent answer (optionally) Arguments for and against her/his answer (i
29、f outside of the inter-quartile interval) Most frequent answers “for and against” Usually the aim of Delphi session is achieved after 4 steps,Key tools of risk management (4) Three levels method,Advantages: Simplicity Avoided assessment of probabilities and impact of individual factors Three time-se
30、ries are built (e.g. of cash-flow, lead-times) : One for most positive circumstances (optimistic) One for most negative circumstances (pessimistic) Third one for the most expected circumstances These three series provide rough estimation of possible situation, thus give basis for reasonable decision
31、s Open question: who and how should predict the three series ?,Key tools of risk management (5) Expected value method,It is weighted average for all possible values for a given phenomena, which may occur Probability is expressed as the percentage of chance for the occurrence of exact value Expected
32、value is calculated as a sum of possible values and their probabilities Open question: who and how should estimate the potential values and the probabilities of their occurrence ?,Risk management Ten organisational ways to agility improvement,Flexible, capable human and material resources Flat struc
33、tures, delegated authorities One-operation processes (e.g.: One step-shopping) Parallel processes Responsibilities attached to processes, not position within the organisational chart Balanced loads, contingencies Good communication (MIS, e-Business, m-Business etc.) Reasonable level of organisationa
34、l regulations; e.g. flexible (multilevel) budgets, not too many rigid procedures etc. Standard lead-times, stress on compression of lead-times High morale, change culture, learning organisation, utilisation of intellectual capital etc.,Other organisational methods against risks,Organisational sensit
35、ivity quick escalation of risk symptoms (e.g.attacks on: Pearl Harbour, underground in Tokyo, 11 September attack on USA . ) Poka-yoke clones: Control Visualisation / signalising Prevention Correction,Due diligence,Process of proving, that the projects / plans were being fulfilled in a competent way
36、 and with relevant diligence Due diligence proves should justify, that all reasonable measures against risks have been applied, and the effects of risks were not been caused by anyones indolence Due diligence proves may be used during legal procedures relating to formal responsibilities: internal or
37、 external (including courts),Symptoms of efficient risk management,Closed risks Risks moved to right on the risk maps Low expenditures on correcting activities Low losses caused by risks,What should be avoided Unreasonable management is always costly !,Too sophisticated risk management, as usually o
38、ccurs with the new management concepts, may result in enormous expenses on consulting Parkinson law is always valid ! Artificial activities may occur within the risk management as well The basic danger for the company is its management incompetence,Possible directions of research,Theoretical: applic
39、ations of fuzzy sets and rough sets theories to the risk calculus patterns of scenario analysis AI based concepts (e.g. simulation of risks explosions) Empirical: statistical research (e.g. impact of organisational procedures) benchmarking oriented research Implementations oriented: branch oriented
40、methodologies information systems,Recommended readings,Adams J., Risk, UCL Press 1995. Chong Y.-Y., Brown E.M.: Managing Project Risk. Business Risk Management for projects leaders, Financial Times Prentice Hal 2000. Cooper D.F., Chapman C.B., Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods and Ca
41、ses, J.Wiley & Sons 1987. Cox A., Lonsdale C., The Management of Outsourcing Risk: The Lessons of Experience, Earlsgate Press 1997. Culp Ch.L.: The Risk Management Process. Business Strategy and Tactics, John Wiley & Sons 2001. Hall M.E.: Managing Risk: Methods for Software Development, Addison-Wesl
42、ey 1998. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K., Thomas H., ONeal D. (eds.): Strategic flexibility. Managing in a turbulent environment, John Wiley & Sons 1998. Moran T.H.: Managing International Political Risk, Blackwell 1998. Volberda H.W., Building the Flexible Firm. How to Remain Competitive, Oxford University Press 1998. Williams Jr. C.A., Smith M.L., Young P.C., Risk Management and Insurance, Irwin McGraw Hill 1998.,