《世界经济学本.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《世界经济学本.ppt（246页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、2019/7/21,1,General Theory of World Economics,Zhang bin Department of Economics School of Business and Management Donghua University,2019/7/21,2,General Introduction to the Course,1. The Concept of World Economics （1）The “Total-sum” Definition 世界经济是各国国民经济的总和。 世界经济是在社会发展到一定阶段形成的处于复杂的相互作用和相互依存关系的各国经济的
2、总和。 （2）The “Market” Definition 世界经济就是世界市场。,2019/7/21,3,（3）The “World System” Definition World economy refers to all trade relations and movements of capital between geographical units. It can be understood as a system of rules, organizations and institutions that regulate world economic relations. I
3、t can also be understood as a competitive states system, where states stand in a continuous struggle for power, acting on the international market for their own interests.,2019/7/21,4,(4) The “Integration” Definition 世界经济是生产力、世界市场、国际分工及国际货币信用关系发展到一定阶段，世界各主要国民经济通过世界规模的紧密的相互联系、依存、竞争、对抗而形成的经济结合体。 综合上述观
4、点： 世界经济是各国市场经济基础上构成的复合型的全球市场经济运行体系，是在主权国家干预下的生产、分配、交换和消费的全过程，是由不同发展水平的国家与国家集团组成的一个相互联系、相互依赖的共同运动的有机整体。,2019/7/21,5,2. The Difference between World Economics and International Economics,世界经济,大洲经济,区域 经济,国家经济,国家、区域或集团经济,国家、区域或集团经济,国际经济,2019/7/21,6,3. The Research Fields of the World Economics (1) The f
5、undamentals of the world economy Concept; Motives; Overall structures; Overall growth and performance; Coordination of trade policies,foreign exchange policies and macroeconomic policies. (2) The historical development of the world economy Trade liberalization; Capital internalization; Production in
6、ternationalization and integration (3) The study of major economies Major national economies; Major regional economies.,2019/7/21,7,4。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点,a. Neo-realism: Hegemonic Stability Theory About Robert Gilpin 1930 生于佛蒙特；1952 毕业于佛蒙特大学 1954 康乃尔大学硕士；1956 加州大学伯克利分校博士 1960-1961 哈佛大学博士后 1961年起 普
7、林斯顿大学国际关系学教授 1975-1976 美国总统技术和经济顾问团成员 主要著作：The Political Economy of International Relations (1987) 是当前西方IPE领域最杰出的研究成果之一,2019/7/21,8,4。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点, The main idea of Hegemonic Stability Theory 霸权带来稳定说 霸主自我牺牲说 霸权必衰说 霸权丧失导致不稳定说 After-hegemony theory,2019/7/21,9,4。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点,b. Neo-i
8、dealism: Interdependence Theory About Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye,Jr 罗伯特基欧汉：1966 哈佛大学博士，现为杜克大学政治学教授，美国科学与艺术学院院士。 约瑟夫奈： 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长 两人为当前IPE领域最具影响力的学者，两人于1977年合著的 Power and Interdependence:World Politics in Transition 是相互依存论的代表作。 The main idea of Interdependence Theory 多渠道交流 多领域相融 武力作用下降,2019/7/2
9、1,10,4。当代学者有关世界政治经济关系的主要理论观点,c. Dependency Theory Raul Prebisch and the Core-periphery Theory Andre Gunder Frank and the Metropolis-satellite Theory Dos Santos and the definition of Dependence,2019/7/21,11,5. About the textbook,(1) The main idea of the textbook A synthetic and comprehensive survey o
10、f the trade, monetary, investment and financial dimensions of the contemporary world economy: International economic activity must have a secure political foundation, but the contemporary political foundation for international economic liberalism are fragile; The end of the Cold War removed the secu
11、rity rationale for economic cooperation among advanced economies; The multilateral trading system is challenged by regionalism; The global monetary and financial systems are unstable; Anti-globalization and protectionism are rising.,2019/7/21,12,5. About the textbook,(2) The structure of the textboo
12、k,2019/7/21,13,6. Reference Books and Periodicals,Books: 张幼文等 世界经济概论 高等教育出版社 2003年第2版 张幼文 金芳 世界经济学 立信会计出版社 2006年 池元吉 世界经济概论 高等教育出版社 2006年第2版 樊勇明 西方国际政治学 上海人民出版社2001年1月 宋新宁 陈岳 国际政治经济学概论 中国人民大学出版社 1999年12月,2019/7/21,14,6. Reference Books and Periodicals,Periodicals: 世界经济研究上海社科院世经所 世界经济中国世界经济学会和中国社科院世界
13、经济与政治研究所 世界经济与政治中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所 世界经济与政治论坛江苏社科院 世界经济中国人民大学资料复印中心,2019/7/21,15,Introduction: The Fragile Global Economy Key Words and Phrases,1. Capital flow 2. trade protection 3. wealth effect 4. corporate restructuring 5. entrepreneurship 6.Federal Reserve 7.service industry 8. international compet
14、itiveness 9. NAE 10. speculative bubble 11. economic boom(recession) 12. treasury bill 13. information economy 14. multinational corporation 15. globalization 16. emerging market 17. international financial and monetary system 18. financial crisis 19. real wages 20. regional economic arrangement 21.
15、 NAFTA 22. fast track authority 23. Bretton Woods System 24. appropriation 25. multilateralism 26. multitrack trade policy 27. managed trade 28. economic regionalism 29. EU 30. Plaza Agreement 31. appreciation 32. command economy 33. deregulation 34. privatization,2019/7/21,16,Introduction: The Frag
16、ile Global Economy Main Points,The Growth and Instability of Capitalism NAE: the Triumph of Capitalism The Global Economy Conclusion,2019/7/21,17,Introduction I. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism,1. Technological progress:the driving force of capitalism About Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) 美籍奥
17、地利经济学家，当代西方经济学家重要代表人物之一。 主要著作：经济发展理论1912，经济周期1939 资本主义、社会主义和民主主义1942 主要观点：创新就是把一种从未有过的关于生产要素和生产条件的新组合引入生产体系。 创新 创造性的毁灭过程 经济周期,2019/7/21,18,Figure: Business cycle,Real GDP,Time,Slump/Trough,Recovery,Boom/Peak,Slump/Trough,Recession,Long run trend,2019/7/21,19,Introduction I. The Growth and Instabilit
18、y of Capitalism,2. Instability: the aftermath of creative destruction (1) Imbalance of economic development within and among nations (2) Threat to traditional social values,beliefs and institutions (3) Periodic recessions and downturns (4) Concentration of wealth, power and economic activities (5) R
19、evolt against an open global economy,2019/7/21,20,Introduction: I. The Growth and Instability of Capitalism,3. The precondition for the stability of capitalist system: strong and wise leadership two functions of international leadership (1) Promote international cooperation (2) Ensure minimal safegu
20、ard for the losers,2019/7/21,21,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,1. The general reasons for NAE (1) Government deregulation (2) Corporate restructuring (3) Technological advances 2. The specific reasons for NAE (1) Large exports to overseas markets (2) Large amounts of imported capital (3
21、) Skillful management of the economy by the Fed (4) Full of raw material prices,2019/7/21,22,表：Chronology of Alan Greenspan,1926.3.6 生于美国纽约市 1948 纽约大学商学院经济学学士 1950 纽约大学商学院经济学硕士 1977 纽约大学博士 1966 尼克松总统经济政策研究室主任 1974 福特总统经济顾问委员会主席 1981-1983 里根总统经济顾问委员会主席 1987 由里根提名，出任Fed 主席 1991 布什提名，连任Fed 主席 1996 克林顿提
22、名，再任Fed 主席 2001 克林顿提名，第三次连任Fed 主席 2006 卸任,2019/7/21,23,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,3. The Characteristics of NAE Low inflation Low unemployment Low federal budget deficit High expansion/productivity Wealth effect,2019/7/21,24,Table:US inflation,unemployment,growth rate,2019/7/21,25,F
23、igure: Dow Jones Index and Wealth Effect,2019/7/21,26,Figure: NASDAQ Index 1971-2010,2019/7/21,27,Figure: Dow Jones Index and Wealth Effect,2019/7/21,28,Figure: World Oil Price (19702005),2019/7/21,29,图:国际油价变动(1946-2010),2019/7/21,30,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,4. The problems of the
24、 U.S. economy (1) The largest debtor (2) The inevitable burst of the NAE bubble The paradox of technological innovation Technological innovation NAE high speed of innovation the surplus of technology waste of technology lose of venture capital,2019/7/21,31,图:美国的双赤字(单位:亿美圆),2019/7/21,32,Table: Chinas
25、 Holdings of US Securities( $bn),2019/7/21,33,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,5. 次贷危机（subprime mortgage crisis） （1）基本情况 2007年4月2日： 美国第二大次级房贷公司新世纪金融公司申请破产保护。 2008年5月29日 贝尔斯登公司股东接受收购协议，同意将公司出售给摩根大通 2008年7月13日 美国财政部和美联储连手推出了拯救美国抵押贷款业两大巨头房地美和房利美的计划，其中包含了向这两家公司直接提供贷款和买入其股份在内的一系列措施 2008年7月14日
26、索罗斯称当前金融危机是其一生中碰到的最严重的金融危机 2008年9月15日 雷曼兄弟申请破产保护，美林证券被美国银行收购，当日美股大泻504点；最大保险集团AIG陷入财政危机 2008年9月21日 美联储宣布批准美国第一大投行高盛和第二大投行摩根斯坦利实施业务转型，转为银行控股公司，即普通商业银行。 2008年10月3日 布什签署了7000亿美元的救市计划,2019/7/21,34,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,（2）什么是次贷危机 无房少房、支付能力低、信用差的穷人，在购买住房后无力偿还抵押贷款而引发的金融问题。 美国房地产贷款系统里
27、面分为了三类：优质贷款市场、次优级的贷款市场、次级贷款市场。目前出问题的就是美国的第三类市场。一类贷款市场面向信用额度等级较高、收入稳定可靠的优质客户，而三类贷款市场是面向收入证明缺失、负债较重的客户，因信用要求程度不高，其贷款利率通常比一般抵押贷款高出2%至3%，在美国次级贷款市场所占份额并不大。按照官方说法，次级房贷占美国整体房贷市场比重的7%到8%，但其利润最高，风险最大。,2019/7/21,35,图:次贷危机示意图,2019/7/21,36,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,（3）爆发及蔓延原因 互联网泡沫问题未解决 虚拟经济过度
28、膨胀 美国的经济政策：双赤字+出口管制 经济自由主义理念导致对金融业放松监管 其他国家金融市场的开放,2019/7/21,37,Introduction: II.NAE: Triumph of Capitalism,（4）全球蔓延 冰岛：货币贬值一半，3家银行欠债610亿美圆，12倍于经济总量，人均负债20万美圆，濒临破产。2008年10月24日，IMF向该国提供20亿援助贷款。 此后， IMF同意向乌克兰提供160亿援助贷款；向匈牙利提供100亿，目前仍在与IMF 协商贷款的有白俄罗斯、塞尔维亚、巴基斯坦等。 雷曼兄弟破产后，欧洲金融机构因与之衍生产品交易而面临巨额损失。,2019/7/21
29、,38,Introduction: III. The Global Economy,1. The characteristics of global economy (1) From a sharply divided international economy to an increasingly integrated global capital economy (2) Emerging markets shifting global economic power and creating an competitive international economy, resulting gl
30、obal economic imbalance (3) Advanced industrialized countries shifting from manufacturing-based to service-based economies (4) The tide of globalization,2019/7/21,39,Table: China-US Merchandise Trade Imbalance （bn USD）,2019/7/21,40,Table: US Merchandise Trade Balances with Major Trading Partners (Bn
31、 USD),2019/7/21,41,Introduction: III. The Global Economy,2. The negative impact of globalization Globalization of financial crises 1997.7.2 Thai baht depreciated 20% 7.11 Philippine peso fell 10.4% Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit fell Singapore dollar fell 17% (end Dec.) Korean won fell Japa
32、nese yen fell 1998.8.17 Russian rouble fell 50% 1997.10.27 Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Peru stock markets fell 13-14% 2008 U.S. subprime (mortgage) crisis,2019/7/21,42,Introduction: III. The Global Economy,3. The reasons for the instability of global economy Vulnerability of the
33、international financial and monetary system Spread of regional economic arrangements Political foundation of the international economy undermined Political foundations of a stable and prosperous world economy Strong international leadership Cooperative relations among major economic powers Commitmen
34、t by world citizens to an open economy,2019/7/21,43,Introduction: III. The Global Economy,B. The political foundations undermined American leadership weakened Globalization accused by American citizens Economic cooperation among major economic powers eroded U.S.: multilateralism multitrack trade pol
35、icy, managed trade and regionalism EU: concentration on economic unification of the Continent Japan: renewal of attention to Pacific Asia,2019/7/21,44,Introduction: III. The Global Economy,(4) Market vs state The view of economic liberalism: The failure of the command and closed economies market eco
36、nomy Deregulation and privatization of developed countries promotion of market mechanism market forces defeat the state in the economy market- dominated world economy will progress toward higher level of prosperity and stability Gilpins view: The process of creative destruction capitalism creates it
37、s own internal enemies capitalism without regulation will damage itself,2019/7/21,45,Introduction: IV. Conclusion,International politics significantly affects the nature and dynamics of the international economy. The international rules/regimes that govern international economic affairs cannot succe
38、ed unless they are supported by a strong political base. The underpinning of the post-WWII global economy has steadily eroded since the end of the Soviet threat. To ensure survival of the global economy, the major powers must recommit themselves to work together to rebuild the weakened political fou
39、ndations,2019/7/21,46,Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of Capitalism Key Words and Phrases,1. Bipolar stability 2.multipolar world 3. geo-economics 4. Unilateralism 5. import-substitution 6. export-led growth 7. trade barrier 8. trade negotiation 9. average tariff 10. barrier to trade to services 11.
40、 capital control 12. financial instrument 13. mutual fund 14. pension fund 15. Derivative 16 FDI 17. capital intensive sector 18. trade liberalization 19. global and regional integration 20. welfare state 21. manufactured goods 22. World Economic Forum 23. Deindustrialization 24. Productive capacity
41、 surplus 25. Sovereign nation 26. Merger 27. Overcapacity 28. Underconsumption 29. Expansionary economic policies 30. Laissez faire,2019/7/21,47,Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of Capitalism Key Words and Phrases,31. Bretton Woods System 32. Ethnic and nationalistic conflict 33. Information economy
42、34. Knowledge economy 35. Nonresidential fixed capital 36. Product life cycle 37. Diffusion of technology 38. Strategic and technological alliances 39. Luddite 40. Downsizing 41. Reengineering 42. Assembly line 43. Trade surplus 44. Dependency theory 45. Budget deficit 46. Inflation rate 47. ASEAN 4
43、8. Cairns Group 49. Per capita income 50. Total factor productivity 51.EU 52. EEC 53. Regional integration 54. Regional economic bloc 55. Single European Act 56. Uruguay Round 57.trade negotiation 58. RTA 59. Dillon/Kennedy/Tokyo Round 60. Economies of scale,2019/7/21,48,Chapter 1: The Second Great
44、Age of Capitalism Key Words and Phrases,61. South America regional bloc (Mercosur) 62. Customs union 63. Free trade area 64. Bargain position 65. Treaty on European Union(Maastricht Treaty) 66. Optimun tariff 67. Strategic trade policy 68. Oligopoly 69. Oligopolistic competition 70. Economic nationa
45、lism 71. Stagflation 72. Governance of the world economy 73. Bilateral treaty 74. Gold standard 75. International monetary system 76. Bank of England 77. Great Depression 78. Keynesian Economics 79. Principle of nondiscrimination,2019/7/21,49,Table: Davos World Economic Forum,1970 瑞士日内瓦大学商业管理学教授克劳斯施
46、瓦布(Klaus Schwab)第一次尝试与1971年1月召集欧洲一些企业领袖在Davos举办非正式聚会； 1971 施瓦布创立“欧洲管理论坛”，使达沃斯的非正式聚会演变成年度正式会议 1976 欧洲管理论坛发展成一以成员为基础的组织； 1979 论坛首次出版年度全球竞争力报告，同年邀请中国参会 1982 第一次世界经济领袖非正式会议召开，并成为一年一度的达沃斯论坛的一项传统； 1987 管理论坛更名为“世界经济论坛”； 1997 论坛主题：持续的全球化问题； 1999 论坛主题：负责任的全球化； 2002 主题：911后世界政治、经济形势,论坛网址：www.we-forum.org,2019
47、/7/21,50,Chapter 1: The Second Great Age of Capitalism Main Points,Introduction The Triumph of Economic Liberalism Economic Globalization Technology,the Information Economy and Services The Global Shift of Economic Power The Demographic Revolution The Challenge of Global Regionalism Managing the Glo
48、bal Economy,2019/7/21,51,Chapter 1: I. Introduction,1. The two Great Ages of capitalism (1) Pax Britannica: the dominance of the British Empire, economically, politically and militarily, in the international system between 1815 and 1914, when Britain provided such international public goods as the encouragement of free trade and the provision of a lender of last resort. (2) Pax Americana: the donimance of the US, both economically and politically, in the i