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1、 The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 1 The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets 新兴市场电信业的下一增长阶段新兴市场电信业的下一增长阶段 Five growth opportunities for telecoms in emerging markets 新兴市场电信业的五大增长机遇新兴市场
2、电信业的五大增长机遇 Reference Code: TE011-001291 Publication Date: 17 Sep 2013 Author: Angel Dobardziev, Emeka Obiodu, Charlotte Davies Ovum is not liable for any perceived changes of meaning that may occur through translation, and that for the avoidance of doubt, the original English version should be refer
3、red to for any discrepancies Ovum不为任何翻译后可能造成的歧义负责，为避免疑义，任何意义分歧皆以英文原版为主。 SUMMARY 摘要摘要 In a nutshell 核心概念核心概念 Emerging markets continue to present a considerable growth opportunity for the telecoms industry, which is struggling to overcome the challenges associated with market saturation, strong compe
4、tition, the emergence of OTT players, and stringent regulatory obligations. As the strong connections growth associated with the uptake of voice and SMS services has slowed, Ovum has identified five new growth opportunities in emerging markets for telecoms, media, and technology (TMT) players. These
5、 opportunities are: next-generation broadband, content services, mobile money, mobile health, and cloud- based ICT services. Ovum expects these opportunities to drive growth across emerging markets in the coming years, with next-generation broadband alone expected to generate $193bn in new revenues
6、by 2017. 新兴市场电信行业继续呈现可观的增长机遇，努力克服市场饱和，竞争激烈，OTT 玩家出现，以及严格监 管管制等方面的相关挑战。伴随语音和短信用户的强势增长开始放缓，Ovum 为新兴市场的电信，媒体和 高科技（TMT）玩家发掘出新的五大增长机遇。这些机会包括：下一代宽带，内容服务，移动货币，移动 医疗，以及基于云的 ICT服务。 Ovum 预计这些机会在未来几年内将推动新兴市场的增长，其中单下一代 宽带这一块业务到 2017 年便将预计产生 1930 亿美元新收入。 The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets
7、(TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 2 Ovum view Ovum 观点观点 The TMT markets in the emerging economies of Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and South and Central America have changed beyond recognition in the past decade. The growth of mobile
8、networks and services has enabled established global players such as Vodafone and Orange to enter new markets, and has also given rise to new regional powerhouses such as Airtel, America Movil, and MTN. In the process, TMT players have transformed the way that people in these rapidly developing econ
9、omies communicate, work, live, and play. 新兴经济体（非洲，亚太，东欧，中东，和中南美洲）的 TMT 市场在过去十年里发生了翻天覆地的变化。 移动网络和服务的增长推动成熟的全球型玩家（如 Vodafone 和 Orange）进入新市场，也导致产生新的区 域性霸主，如 Airtel，America Movil 和 MTN 公司。在这个过程中，TMT玩家已经改变了人们在这些迅速 发展的经济体中的交流/工作/生活/和娱乐方式。 As the land grab for new connections in emerging markets subsides,
10、traditional forms of TMT revenue growth are beginning to slow, competition is increasing, tariffs for basic voice and SMS services are declining, and margins are coming under pressure. These issues pose a number of fundamental questions for TMT players, including: 随着新兴市场的新用户争夺战逐渐平息，传统形式的 TMT 收入增长开始放
11、缓，竞争越来越激烈，基本语 音和短信服务资费开始下降，利润压力上扬。对 TMT玩家来说，这些挑战造成大量基本问题，包括： Where will future growth come from and how can companies localize effectively to capture it? 未来的增长机遇在哪里，以及企业如何能够有效地实现本地化来抓住机遇？ Which product and service segments will drive profitable growth? 哪些产品和服务领域将推动盈利增长？ What strategies and business
12、models should TMT players adopt to tap into these growth opportunities? TMT玩家应该采取何种战略和商业模式来抓住这些增长机遇？ How can TMT companies align effectively with government technology strategies and navigate complex regulatory frameworks? TMT公司如何才能有效地与政府技术战略对齐并操纵复杂的监管框架？ What are the most significant risk factors a
13、ssociated with these opportunities? 这些机遇将会带来哪些明显的风险？ While the opportunities on offer to TMT players in emerging markets are significant, they also come with considerable risk. Having provided the next billion consumers with basic voice and SMS services, the rules of the game for TMT players in emer
14、ging markets are changing rapidly. Emerging markets present a unique set of challenges, with companies facing demands for new business models that are unprecedented, even in the innovative TMT sector. Winners and losers will be determined by their agility in overcoming challenges of geography and te
15、chnology, but more importantly in how they remake their organizations and partner to meet the demands of this radically different landscape. 虽然 TMT玩家在新兴市场拥有显著机会，但也会遇到相当的风险。由于 TMT 玩家已经为下一个十亿消费 者提供了基本的语音和短信服务，因此他们在新兴市场的游戏规则正在迅速改变。新兴市场呈现独特的挑 战性-对企业提出前所未有的新商业模式要求，甚至是在创新的 TMT 行业。是否能够迅速克服地理和技术 The Next St
16、age of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 3 挑战将决定成败，但更重要的是他们如何改造自己的组织架构和发展合作伙伴来满足这种全然不同的市场 形势所提出的要求。 Key messages 关键信息关键信息 The increasing availability of low-cost smartphones will mean that the demand for higher speed an
17、d greater capacity Internet connections will only accelerate in emerging markets in the coming years. As a result, broadband access will be the most significant TMT revenue growth opportunity. The growth in demand will result in next-generation broadband revenues in emerging markets doubling to $193
18、bn and connections tripling to 3.7 billion between 2012 and 2017. 低成本智能手机的日益普及意味着新兴市场对更高速度和更大容量的互联网连接的需求将在未来 几年加速。因此，宽带接入将是 TMT 行业最重要的收入增长机会。需求增长将推动 2012-2017 年间新兴市场下一代宽带收入翻两倍至 1930 亿美元，用户数翻三倍至 37 亿。 Broadband connectivity in emerging markets will grow as the Internet occupies an increasingly vital
19、role in the commercial, social, and government sectors of society. The challenge for TMT companies that are involved in the rollout of these networks is to ensure that the supply of new network infrastructure remains close to the demand for Internet connections so as to ensure that stakeholders achi
20、eve a decent return on their investments. 随着互联网在商业，社会和政府部门发挥越来越重要的作用，新兴市场的宽带用户将增长。 涉足 部署这些网络的 TMT公司所面临的挑战是确保新网络基础设备供应接近互联网连接需求，以确 保利益相关者获得像样的投资回报。 As emerging market consumers increasingly seek out “smart“ experiences in the most affordable and immediate ways, the greatest opportunities in content a
21、nd apps will continue to come from mobile value-added services (VASs). However, gaming, music, and video will play a growing role. A rapid surge in demand for these services will propel mobile content revenues in emerging markets to $30bn by 2017, which is almost double its current size. To realize
22、these opportunities, companies will have to reorient their mindsets and strategies to take advantage of the mobile-led culture in emerging markets. 随着新兴市场消费者越来越多地寻求最经济实惠和直接的“智能”体验，内容和应用业务的最大 机会将继续来自移动增值服务。然而，游戏，音乐和视频将发挥越来越大的作用。消费者对这些 服务急剧上升推动新兴市场的移动内容收入到 2017 年达到 300 亿美元，这几乎是其目前收入的 两倍。为了抓住这些机会，企业将不得
23、不调整自己的心态和战略，充分利用新兴市场的移动主导 型文化。 A considerable increase in mobile ownership over the past decade and limited access to financial services has fuelled a rapid growth in mobile money services in emerging markets. In many countries, more people now own a mobile phone than have a bank account. As a resul
24、t, MNOs, payment processors, device vendors, independent players, and financial institutions are playing an increasingly important role in the provision of basic financial services. By 2017, Ovum forecasts that there will be 876 million mobile money users in emerging markets (which will represent 86
25、% of all mobile money users in the world) and that the sector will be worth $28bn to service providers. The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 4 移动电话在过去十年里的猛增以及访问金融服务的有限性加速推动新兴市场移动货币服务的快速 增长。在许多国家，拥有一部移动电话比
26、拥有一个银行帐户的人还要多。因此，移动运营商，支 付处理商，终端制造商，独立玩家和金融机构正在基本金融服务领域发挥越来越重要的作用。 Ovum 预计，新兴市场到 2017 年将拥有 8.76 亿移动货币用户（在全球移动货币用户总量中占比 达 86），这将为服务提供商带来价值 280 亿美元的市场机遇。 Ovum expects that mobile health services will generate $8.8bn in revenues in emerging markets over the next five years as governments look to addres
27、s limited healthcare resources. Services based on basic mobile phone features such as SMS-based medication compliance services and health information call centers represent the greatest short-term commercial opportunities for telcos. As countries continue to invest in their healthcare systems, advan
28、ced services such as remote monitoring will gain more traction. 随着政府寻求解决有限的医疗资源问题，Ovum 预测新兴市场移动医疗服务将在未来五年产生 88 亿美元收入。基于基本手机功能的服务（如基于短信的用药依从性服务和健康信息呼叫中心）为 电信运营商带来最大的短期商业机会。随着国家继续投资医疗保健系统，诸如远程监控之类的先 进服务将发展壮大。 Cloud ICT services will have a profound impact in emerging markets, with numerous telecoms an
29、d IT service providers currently expanding into enterprise cloud services. While these offerings are mainly for infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), software-as-a-service (SaaS) will also grow rapidly as broadband infrastructure expands. The strong adoption of cloud ICT services by emerging market en
30、terprises is expected to generate revenues of $10.4bn by 2017, which is a considerable increase from the $2.0bn that they generated in 2012. 伴随众多电信和 IT服务提供商目前寻求扩展企业云服务，ICT云服务将对新兴市场产生深远 影响。虽然这些产品主要涉及基础设备即服务（IaaS），但随着宽带基础设备的扩展软件即 服务（SaaS）也将快速增长。Ovum 预计到 2017 年新兴市场企业采用 ICT云服务的强劲趋 势将产生 104 亿美元收入，与 2012
31、年产生的 20 亿美元收入相比出现大幅攀升。 NEXT-GENERATION BROADBAND 下一代宽带下一代宽带 Introduction 简介简介 The market for communications services is evolving rapidly across emerging markets. Low-cost mobile devices with larger screen sizes and faster processors are raising user awareness and appetite for content, data, and soci
32、al networking services. This has increased the demand for faster data connectivity to make the experience of these services truly compelling. 新兴市场的通信服务业正在迅速演变。具有更大屏幕尺寸和更快处理器的低成本移动终端正在推动用户对 内容，数据，和社交网络服务的认识和兴趣。这促进了对更快数据连接的要求，以便使这些服务体验真正 具有吸引力。 Broadband infrastructure and Internet access are critical
33、 for economic development in emerging markets, with much of a nations future competitiveness reliant on its robustness. Indeed, a 2012 report by the International Telecommunication Union suggested that a 10% growth in broadband penetration yields a 1% The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emergin
34、g Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 5 incremental increase in GDP. As a result of finding such as these, many countries are actively promoting policies to boost broadband penetration. 宽带基础设备和互联网接入对新兴市场的经济发展至关重要，这是因为一个国家的未来竞争力在很大程度 上依赖于它们是否强劲发展。事实上，国际电
35、信联盟在 2012 年发布的一份报告表明，宽带普及率每增长 10%将产生 1% GDP 增量。鉴于这一发现，许多国家都在积极推动提高宽带普及率的政策。 While the next-generation broadband opportunity is enormous in emerging markets, tapping it profitably will pose challenges for service providers and vendors. Service providers will need to address a number of technology and
36、 business issues to ensure that they scale up broadband services using the right mix of technologies, commercial packages, and partners. 虽然新兴市场的下一代宽带业务面临巨大机会，但服务提供商和设备供应商想要在这一领域创收却面临挑 战。服务提供商需要解决一系列的技术和业务问题，以确保他们使用正确的技术，商业套系和合作伙伴组 合来扩展宽带服务。 Market size and growth 市场规模和增长市场规模和增长 Unsurprisingly, build
37、ing new broadband infrastructure is a key focus area for most emerging market telecoms operators and their equipment vendors. As the strategy director at a leading MNO stated, “data access is the key strategic growth area for us.“ As shown in Figure 1, Ovum expects broadband connections in emerging
38、markets to grow at a CAGR of 22% between 2012 and 2017, increasing from 1.3 billion in 2012 to 3.7 billion in 2017. Over the same period, broadband revenues are expected to increase from $102bn to $193bn. 不出所料，建立新宽带基础设施是大多数新兴市场电信运营商和设备供应商关注的一个关键重点领域。一 家占主导地位的移动运营商的战略总监表示“数据访问是我们的关键战略性增长领域。”如图 1 所示，
39、Ovum 预计 2012-2017 年新兴市场宽带连接数将以 22的复合年增长率增长-从 2012 年的 13 亿升至 2017 年的 37 亿。在同一时期，宽带收入预计将从 1020 亿美元增加至 1930 亿美元。 The Next Stage of Growth for Telecoms in Emerging Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 6 Figure 1: Broadband connections and revenues in emergin
40、g markets: 2012 and 2017 Source: Ovum Mobile broadband opportunity 移动宽带移动宽带业务业务机遇机遇 Mobile broadband will be the most effective, affordable, and profitable means of providing access to the Internet in emerging markets. As there is limited fixed access infrastructure in many emerging markets, it is t
41、ypically uneconomic to begin building it now. However, upgrading current 2G voice networks to faster 3G (HSPA) and 4G (LTE) technologies is an increasingly competitive priority for service providers. As a result, Ovum expects that 87% of all broadband connections in emerging markets will be over a w
42、ireless technology in 2017. Currently, 3G technologies account for the majority of mobile broadband connections in emerging markets. While the deployment and uptake of 4G technologies will increase over the next five years, 3G will continue to be the dominant mobile broadband technology in emerging
43、markets in 2017. 移动宽带将成为新兴市场上最有效，最实惠，而且最具盈利性的互联网接入方法。由于许多新兴市场只有 有限的固网接入基础设施，因此现在开始建立固网基础设施往往并不经济。然而，服务提供商竞争日益激 烈的首要任务是将目前 2G 语音网络升级到速度更快的 3G（HSPA）和 4G（LTE）技术。因此，Ovum 预 计到 2017 年 87的新兴市场宽带连接将采用无线技术。目前，3G 技术是新兴市场移动宽带连接的主流。 虽然 4G 技术的部署和用户量将在未来五年增加，但到 2017 年 3G 将继续主导新兴市场移动宽带技术。 The greatest mobile broad
44、band opportunities will be in the largest emerging markets, with China expected to account for 14% of all mobile broadband connections in 2017. As data traffic grows, LTEs ability to support a more efficient and cost-effective data traffic infrastructure will encourage many The Next Stage of Growth
45、for Telecoms in Emerging Markets (TE011-001291) 17 Sep 2013 Ovum. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited Page 7 emerging market operators to launch the technology. This will result in 352 million LTE connections in emerging markets by 2017, which will represent approximately 10% of all mobile broadban
46、d connections. 移动宽带业务的最大机会将来自全球最大的新兴市场-到 2017 年，中国移动宽带连接数预计将在总移动宽 带连接数中占比 14。随着数据流量的增长，LTE 能够支持更有效和更符合成本效益的数据流量基础设施 的能力将鼓舞许多新兴市场运营商推出该技术。其结果是，新兴市场到 2017 将拥有 3.52 亿 LTE 连接数， 约占所有移动宽带连接数的 10。 Fixed broadband opportunity 固定宽带业务机会固定宽带业务机会 Despite the dominance of mobile broadband, fixed broadband will c
47、ontinue to grow across emerging markets. The strong growth in video traffic, especially from websites such as YouTube and Internet- based TV services, will continue to justify the rollout of fixed broadband infrastructure. By 2017, Ovum forecasts that there will be 520 million fixed broadband connec
48、tions in emerging markets. This will be a small but important share of total emerging market broadband connections as it will typically be used by high-income, trend-setting users. 尽管移动宽带占主导地位，但固定宽带业务在新兴市场将继续增长。视频流量的强劲增长（尤其是诸如 YouTube 等网站和基于互联网的电视服务所带来的流量）将继续推动固定宽带基础设施的部署。 Ovum 预 计新兴市场到 2017 年将拥有 5.
49、2 亿固定宽带连接数。由于带动潮流的高收入用户通常会采用固定宽带服 务，因此固定宽带连接将在新兴市场宽带连接业务中扮演市场份额较小但却十分重要的角色。 Ovum expects that fixed and mobile broadband connectivity will generate revenues of $193bn in 2017. Although fixed broadband connections will only represent 14% of total broadband connections in 2017, they will account for 56% of total revenues. This highlights the fact that fixed broadband connections are largely used by high-income customers. In contrast, mobile broadband connections are often the only affordable option for low-inco