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5、warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Includes 10-year forecasts to end-2017 Published by BusIness MonItor InternatIonal ltd Business Forecast report Q4 2011 Mexico include
6、s 10-year forecast to 2020 Still Not Convinced About The Consumer issn 1744-8891 published by Business Monitor international Ltd. copy Deadline: 14 July 2011 2 Business Monitor international Mexico Q4 2011 Mexico MacroeconoMic Data anD Forecasts, 2006-2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f
7、 2014f 2015f Population, mn 5104.2105.3106.4107.4108.5109.5110.4111.3112.2113.1 nominal GdP, us$bn 6951.71,036.41,089.6884.01,040.21,202.71,357.81,500.41,640.71,734.7 nominal GdP, MXnbn 610,379.111,320.812,200.111,929.513,137.214,347.915,274.816,129.517,022.717,998 GdP per capita, us$ 69,1329,84410,
8、2458,2289,58510,98512,29613,47614,61915,338 real GdP growth, % change y-o-y 1,65.23.31.5-6.15.54.12.62.42.42.6 industrial production index, % y-o-y, ave 75.72.0-0.7-1.36.13.62.43.03.03.1 unemployment, % of labour force, eop 83.53.44.34.84.94.43.83.83.53.2 Budget balance, MXnbn 99.94.8-8.0-273.5-370.
9、6-351.4-285.7-154.1-72.4-73.9 Budget balance, % of GdP 100.10.0-0.1-2.3-2.8-2.5-1.9-1.0-0.4-0.4 consumer prices, % y-o-y, eop 94.03.86.53.64.43.83.03.03.03.0 consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave 93.63.95.15.34.24.13.43.03.03.0 exchange rate MXn/us$, eop 1110.8010.8913.6513.0612.3611.5011.0010.5010.2510.50
10、exchange rate MXn/us$, ave 1110.9110.9211.2013.4912.6311.9311.2510.7510.3810.38 exchange rate MXn/eur, eop 1114.2515.8919.1116.5916.5316.4514.7413.1212.8113.12 central bank policy rate, % 2,97.007.508.254.504.504.505.005.505.505.50 Goods exports, us$bn 9249.9271.9291.3229.7298.4319.2344.8372.4405.94
11、42.4 Goods imports, us$bn 9256.1281.9308.6234.4301.5322.6348.4376.3410.1447 Balance of trade in goods, us$bn 9-6.1-10.1-17.3-4.7-3.1-3.3-3.6-3.9-4.2-4.6 Balance of trade in goods and services, us$bn 7-11.9-16.4-24.6-13.1-12.7-12.3-13.6-13.9-14.2-15.1 current account, us$bn 10-4.8-9.0-16.4-6.3-5.7-7.
12、4-7.2-7.0-6.4-6.3 current account, % of GdP 10-0.5-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4 foreign reserves ex gold, us$bn 1267.778.085.490.8113.6125.0135.0145.0155.0170.0 import cover, months g 2 Target Rate, Before 2005 TIIE (91-day) rate used; 3 Includes Pidiregas Public Sector Debt; 4 Public and pub
13、lically guaranteed external debt stock + Government Domestic Debt; Sources: 5 World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI. 6 INEGI/IBMI Calculation; 7 Banxico/BMI Calculation; 8 INEGI; 9 Banxico; 10 Banxico / BMI Calculation; 11 BMI; 12 IMF / Banxico; 13 IMF/BMI Calculation; 14 SHCP; 15 SHCP / BMI; 16 GDF/Banxic
14、o/BMI. 3 Business Monitor international contents executive summary . 5 core Views 5 Major Forecast changes 5 Key risk to outlook 5 chapter 1: political outlook 7 sWot analysis 7 BMi political risk ratings 7 Domestic politics.8 opposition Boost For 2012 a dramatic victory for the opposition Partido
15、revolucionario institucional (Pri) in the July 3 state elections is a strong signal of voter preferences for next years general elections. taBLe: poLiticaL oVerVieW .8 Long-term political outlook 9 inertia to cap Development The constant struggle to introduce far-reaching social and economic reforms
16、 will be the defining characteristic of Mexican politics beyond the 2012 elections. chapter 2: economic outlook . 13 sWot analysis 13 BMi economic risk ratings .13 economic activity .14 no upward revision to Growth at present, Mexican economic activity looks strong, but with the consumer story not y
17、et convincing and high oil prices likely to dampen demand for exports, we are happy to stick to what is now a below-consensus real GdP growth projection of 4.1% for 2011. taBLe: econoMic actiVitY .14 Balance of payments 16 no improvement in external account Not only does Mexicos Q111 balance of paym
18、ents data support our view that the current account deficit is structural in nature, but it also reinforces our concerns that a painful withdrawal of short-term capital is on the cards if the authorities fail to act to stem rampant portfolio inflows. taBLe: current account 16 Monetary policy .18 No
19、Inflationary Fears Here taBLe: MonetarY poLicY .18 Fiscal policy .19 Gradual Decline in sovereign credentials We do not expect Mexico to reduce its public sector debt burden to pre-crisis lows for the duration of our 10-year forecast. taBLe: FiscaL poLicY .19 Banking sector 20 4 Business Monitor int
20、ernational Mexico Q4 2011 chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23 the Mexican economy to 2020 .23 structural Barriers to Keep Growth subdued sound macroeconomic policies should help Mexico register sustained levels of economic activity going forward, averaging 2.6% real GdP growth between 2012 and 2020, acc
21、ording to our forecasts. taBLe: LonG-terM MacroeconoMic Forecasts, 2013-2020 23 chapter 4: Business environment 25 sWot analysis 25 BMi Business environment risk ratings .25 Business environment outlook 26 institutions 26 taBLe: BMi Business anD operation risK ratinGs 26 taBLe: BMi LeGaL FraMeWorK r
22、atinG .27 infrastructure 28 taBLe: LaBour Force QuaLitY .28 Market orientation 29 taBLe: Latin aMerica, annuaL FDi inFLoWs 29 taBLe: traDe anD inVestMent ratinGs 30 operational risk .31 taBLe: top export Destinations, 2002-2009 31 chapter 5: Key sectors 33 pharmaceutical .33 taBLe: prescription DruG
23、 saLes inDicators, 2007-2015 34 taBLe: patenteD DruG saLes inDicators, 2007-2015 35 telecommunications .35 Table: Telecoms secTor INTerNeT HIsTorIcal DaTa Sources: 2 INEGI/IBMI Calculation. 3 World Bank/BMI calculation/BMI; 4 Banxico/BMI Calculation; 5 INEGI domestic demand for vehicles has been muc
24、h less impressive. This trend has been reflected in other sectors of the economy, with Walmart de Mxico reporting a 1.1% y-o-y decline in same-store sales in March this year, after a tepid 1.8% expansion in February. With the bulk of new private sector credit still going to corporations rather than
25、consumers, and remittances far off historic highs in nominal terms, at present there is little to like about the health of private consumption in Mexico. oil impact: net negative For Growth Mexico is a net crude oil exporter, but it is also a net refined oil importer, and until it can boost its refi
26、nery capacity (which our Oil Huge portfolio inflows will continue to pose a risk to external account stability over the next few quarters, raising the risks of a disorderly and painful adjustment. little Hope For a current account surplus The current account deficit narrowed to just US$1.38bn in the
27、 first quarter of 2011, from US$3.49bn in Q410, thanks primarily to a healthy US$2.02bn trade surplus, the largest since 1996. That this occurred while the peso was appreciating against the US dollar is a particularly good sign, as it implies that currency strength is not yet hampering the competiti
28、veness of Mexicos key manufacturing sector. However, for the current account this, unfortunately, is where the good news ends. The other key source of forex earnings, up. But not enough remittances, us$mn Source: BMI, Banxico 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Jan-97 Aug-97 Mar-98 Oct-98 May-99 Dec
29、-99 Jul-00 Feb-01 Sep-01 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 16 Business Monitor international Mexico Q4 2011 taBLe: current account 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Goods imports, us$bn 2256.1281.9308
30、.6234.4301.5322.6348.4376.3410.1447.0 Goods imports, % of GdP 326.927.228.326.529.026.825.725.125.025.8 Goods exports, us$bn 2249.9271.9291.3229.7298.4319.2344.8372.4405.9442.4 Goods exports, % of GdP 326.326.226.726.028.726.525.424.824.725.5 Goods exports, % of imports 397.696.494.498.099.099.099.0
31、99.099.099.0 Balance of trade in goods, us$bn 2-6.1-10.1-17.3-4.7-3.1-3.3-3.6-3.9-4.2-4.6 Balance of trade in goods, % of GdP 3-0.6-1.0-1.6-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3 services imports, us$bn 42223.825.423.225.12.028.029.030.031.5 services imports, % of GdP 32.32.32.32.62.42.22.11.91.81.8 services e
32、xports, us$bn 416.217.518.014.815.417.018.019.020.021.0 services exports, % of GdP 31.71.71.71.71.51.41.31.31.21.2 Goods and services exports, us$bn 4266.1289.4309.4244.5313.8336.2362.8391.4425.9463.4 Goods and services exports, % of GdP 328.027.928.427.730.228.026.726.126.026.7 Balance of trade in
33、goods and services, us$bn 4-11.9-16.4-24.6-13.1-12.7-12.3-13.6-13.9-14.2-15.1 Balance of trade in goods and services, % of GdP 3-1.2-1.6-2.3-1.5-1.2-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.9-0.9 net income, us$bn 4-18,881.3 -18,994.4 -17,171.6 -14,813.7 -14,462.6-15,000-14,500-15,000-15,000-15,000 income account balance, % o
34、f GdP 3-1,984 -1,832.8-1,576 -1,675.7 -1,390.4 -1,247.2 -1,067.9-999.7-914.2-864.7 net transfers, us$bn 325,948.9 26,395.8 25,462.3 21,531.2 21,504.219,90020,88021,86022,84023,820 net transfers, % of GdP 32,726.62,546.92,336.92,435.62,067.41,654.61,537.81,456.91,392.11,373.1 current account, us$bn 3
35、-4.8-9.0-16.4-6.3-5.7-7.3-7.2-7.0-6.4-6.3 current account, % of GdP 3-0.5-0.9-1.5-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4 openness to international trade, % 1,353.253.455.152.557.753.451.049.949.751.3 Notes: f BMI forecasts. 1 Imports plus exports, % of GDP; Sources: 2 Banxico. 3 Banxico / BMI Calculation; 4 Ba
36、nxico/BMI Calculation. remittances remained a long way off pre-crisis highs (see chart opposite), and even the spike in March was not enough to take first quarter growth above 5.7% y-o-y (after a full-year growth rate of just 0.1% in 2010). The trade services balance also remained firmly in deficit,
37、 as did the income account, where the shortfall hit a two and a half year high of US$6.12bn. Therefore, even if Mexico were able to maintain a goods trade surplus for the rest of 2011, the chances of it reducing the current account deficit anytime soon look slim. There is also a risk that a slump in
38、 US demand for manufac- tured goods will see the trade surplus erode over the next few months. April trade data show growth in industrial manufactured exports which still make up almost 80% of Mexicos total exports slowed rapidly, down to just 7.5% y-o-y (from 25.2% in January), taking the headline
39、export growth rate with it. This move is in line with the rapid fall in US durable goods orders in the same month, which implies lower export margins and a narrower trade surplus over subsequent quarters. Therefore, while the positive Q111 trade reading poses upside risks to our full-year current ac
40、count deficit projection of US$7.3bn (0.61% of GDP) for 2011, we see little hope that the economy can run a current account surplus over the next few years. Financial account the Biggest risk This focus on what is admittedly a pretty small current account shortfall may seem immaterial when financial
41、 account inflows continue to soar, as they have been doing in recent quarters. Foreign direct investment alone was more than double the size current account deficit in Q111, and this was just a fraction of the total financial account inflows. But here is where the real balance of payments risks lie
42、for Mexico, with the staggering levels of short-term portfolio inflows causing a substantial risk to external account stability. Indeed, 61% of the total US$34.9bn foreign investment into the country over the past two quarters has been into Mexicos money markets, proof if it were needed that the car
43、ry trade remains in full flow. The central bank could help stem these flows by cutting rates, although this is unlikely with Brent crude trading at well over US$100/bbl. Another hope is that US growth is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to start monetary normalisation some point soon, but with
44、the US Q111 real GDP growth rate a dis- appointing 1.8%, a near-term hike in the Fed funds rate now looks even more unlikely. There are, of course, plenty of other policy tools available which could help reduce these financial account imbalances, ranging from a tax on fixed income, similar to Brazil
45、s IOF, to more explicit capital controls. The problem is that such politics would have to be taken by a government which is behind in the polls leading into a major electoral cycle, which will culminate with the general elections in July 2012. Since the resultant withdrawal of liquidity could increa
46、se public and private sector borrowing costs, potentially exacerbating what is still a weak domestic demand story, it is perhaps a risk the current administration is not willing to take. The longer this continues, the less likely the necessary adjust- ment will be gradual in nature, increasing the l
47、ikelihood of a painful withdrawal of liquidity down the line. not so pretty total exports 2 M1 + domestic financial assets held by residents; 3 M4 = M2 + domestic financial assets held by non-residents + deposits in branches and agencies of domestic banks abroad; 4 Target Rate, Before 2005 TIIE (91-
48、day) rate used; 5 Real rate strips out the effects of inflation; Sources: 6 Banxico. 7 IMF; 8 Banxico / BMI Calculation; 9 IMF/BMI. real GDP projection of 4.1%. The main driver of this slowdown will be lower demand from the US for Mexicos manufactured goods, a view which is already beginning to play
49、 out in recent trade and US durable goods orders. Indeed, rather than consider- ing revising up our below-consensus growth forecasts, we now see downside risks to this figure, although hold off from any revisions for the time being. Fiscal policy Gradual Decline in sovereign credentials BMi VieW We do not expect Mexico to r