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1、Q3 2010 power report ISSN 1754-405X published by Business Monitor International Ltd. INDoNeSIA INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 Business Monitor International Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Mo
2、nitor International. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any me
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4、s believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies
5、or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. INDONESIA POWER REPORT Q3 2010 INCLUDES 5- AND
6、10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014 AND 2019 Part of BMIs Industry Survey BMI In the 71 countries covered by BMIs energy service, primary energy demand (PED) is set to increase from an estimated 10,542mn toe in 2009 to 12,618mn toe by 2014. The 2008 estimate of global PED published in the BP Statistical Revie
7、w of World Energy (June 2009) was 11,295mn toe, which reflects its broader coverage than the BMI universe. According to BPs report, oil accounted for 34.8% of 2008 energy demand, followed by coal with 29.3% and gas with 24.1%; nuclear energys share was just 5.5%, behind hydro-electric power with 6.4
8、%. BMIs forecasts suggest that, in spite of rapid demand growth, gas will still account for just 24.3% of PED in 2014, with much of the increased market share reflecting power generation usage. In spite of environmental pressure, we see coals share of overall demand edging Indonesia Power Report Q3
9、2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 higher to 31.8% by the end of the forecast period. Our estimates point to a 5.3% market share for nuclear power by 2014, with hydro-electricity remaining marginally ahead with an estimated 6.0% share of the energy market. BMIs forecasts for electricity
10、 generation suggest an increase from an estimated 18,746TWh in 2009 to 22,740TWh in 2014 (+21.3%), based on a universe of 71 countries. According to the BP review (June 2009), world electricity generation in 2008 was 20,202TWh. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is a division of the
11、US Department of Energy, predicts a 29.2% rise in power generation from 17,982TWh in 2006 to 23,228TWh by 2015. Thermal power generation will continue to dominate, although gas will gain market share at the expense of oil, while coal will hold its ground. Our projections for thermal power generation
12、 suggest a generation market share of 69.1% in 2014, down slightly from the estimated 2009 level of 70.8%. The EIAs long- term energy outlook predicts a 65.8% market share for thermal power generation in 2015, with coal having 40.8%, gas holding a 21.0% market share and oil claiming just 4.0% of ove
13、rall generation. According, to the EIA, nuclear power will account for 13.1% of electricity generation by 2015, with its market share falling steadily during the period. BMIs own data suggest a market share of around 13.1% for nuclear in 2014, in spite of signs that this form of power generation is
14、gaining fresh support as countries struggle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The EIA includes hydro-electric power in the renewables segment, where generating market share is predicted to reach 21.1% by 2015. BMIs data point to a hydro-power market share of 15.1% by 2014, implying that the contri
15、bution made by alternative sources such as wind will remain very modest during the forecast period. Asia Pacific Region The dominant regional electricity generator and consumer in the Asia Pacific region is China, which has a high dependence on imports to fuel its power stations. India and South Kor
16、ea are also significant regional players, with both also increasingly reliant on imported fuels to meet their power needs. In 2008, data from BP (June 2009) show regional electricity generation of 7,250TWh, of which China, Japan, India and South Korea accounted for 81%. BMIs estimates for 2009 sugge
17、st regional generation of 7,308TWh. Indonesias market share in 2009 was an estimated 2.15%. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% during 2010-2014. By the end of the forecast period, we expect Indonesia to account for 2.07% of regiona
18、l power generation. The EIA predicts that installed generating capacity for the OECD Pacific region will increase from 374GW in 2006 to 386GW by 2010, and then 410GW by 2015. Net electricity generation for the region is forecast to rise from 1,691TWh in 2008 to 1,782TWh by 2010, then to 1,928TWh by
19、2015. For non- OECD Asia, capacity is to increase from 871GW in 2008 to 1,209GW by 2010, and then to 1,407GW by 2015. Power generation is tipped to rise from 4,391TWh to 5,586TWH by 2010, increasing further to 7,295TWh by 2015. Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 1
20、1 Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 260.6 272.3 274.0 276.7 279.5 285.1 290.8 295.2 Cambodia 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.3 4.0 China 3,281.6 3,433.4 3,639.4 3,912.4 4,233.2 4,571.8 4,937.6 5,332.6 Hong Kong 38.9 38.0 3
21、7.5 38.0 39.2 40.3 41.7 43.2 India 808.8 834.3 876.0 924.2 987.0 1,046.3 1,112.2 1,178.9 Indonesia 142.4 151.2 157.4 166.1 176.0 183.9 191.3 200.9 Japan 1,160.0 1,154.3 1,095.0 1,100.5 1,117.0 1,130.4 1,141.7 1,164.5 Malaysia 105.0 106.4 105.0 110.3 116.9 122.1 127.6 134.0 Pakistan 98.8 95.1 96.0 98
22、.9 101.8 104.4 107.5 110.8 Philippines 59.6 59.6 60.0 62.7 66.8 70.1 73.6 76.9 Singapore 41.1 41.7 41.0 44.0 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.0 South Korea 440.0 462.9 450.0 470.0 480.0 493.4 510.7 524.0 Sri Lanka 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.2 Taiwan 242.7 237.7 235.0 245.0 256.0 265.0 275.6 285.2 Thailan
23、d 144.6 147.5 143.0 148.0 152.4 158.5 164.1 169.0 Vietnam 69.5 79.2 85.6 94.1 104.5 116.0 127.6 139.1 BMI universe 6,904.9 7,125.9 7,307.8 7,704.7 8,171.3 8,651.5 9,169.8 9,725.4 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecasts: B
24、MI Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share
25、 of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Indonesias thermal generation in 2009 was around 145TWh, or 2.48% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.45% of t
26、he regions thermal generation. Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 246.1 257.3 258.1 260.8 263.5 268.6 273.8 278.2 Cambodia 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.1 China 2,738.3 2,786.2 2,960.4 3,187.4 3,441.2 3,703.7
27、3,983.8 4,288.3 Hong Kong 38.9 38.0 37.5 38.0 39.2 40.3 41.7 43.2 India 649.1 687.4 718.1 750.7 788.4 819.1 860.3 900.5 Indonesia 131.1 139.2 144.9 153.1 163.0 169.9 177.3 185.9 Japan 806.9 833.4 758.0 750.5 752.9 754.1 755.0 763.2 Malaysia 94.8 98.5 96.5 98.5 103.0 106.5 110.0 113.5 Pakistan 63.8 6
28、4.6 64.6 66.4 65.5 67.0 67.0 68.0 Philippines 51.0 49.8 50.5 52.7 56.3 59.3 62.4 65.4 Singapore 41.1 41.7 41.0 44.0 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.0 South Korea 293.8 308.1 341.0 345.0 355.0 369.0 374.0 374.0 Sri Lanka 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 Taiwan 198.0 192.8 191.0 196.6 204.0 209.5 216.0 221.3 Thailan
29、d 131.1 135.0 130.0 135.5 139.0 143.0 148.5 152.0 Vietnam 39.6 47.0 49.8 54.5 61.1 71.3 77.0 84.5 BMI universe 5,530.9 5,686.0 5,848.9 6,141.7 6,486.4 6,838.1 7,206.0 7,599.7 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecasts: BMI B
30、MI estimates suggest that Asia Pacific hydro-electric power generation amounted to 930TWh in 2009, or 12.7% of regional electricity generation. By the end of the forecast period, we see hydro-power having 13.6% of the electricity market, with generation at 1,446TWh. Indonesias share of 2009 hydro ge
31、neration was an estimated 2.48%, which we expect to ease to 2.45% by 2014. Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 In terms of PED, according to BP data the Asia Pacific region in 2008 consumed 3,982mn toe. The BMI estimate for 2009 is 4,061mn toe. The regional pref
32、erence is for coal, which accounted for 51.7% of 2008 regional PED. Next in line is oil, with a 29.6% market share. Gas takes a 10.5% share, with nuclear accounting for 3.1% and hydro-electric energy representing 5.0%. Oil is the dominant fuel in Indonesia, accounting for an estimated 45.1% of prima
33、ry energy demand (PED) in 2009, followed by gas at 26.7%, coal at 24.0% and hydro at 2.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Indonesias estimated 2009 market share of 3.15% is set to fall to 2.86% by 2014. Table:
34、 Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) Country 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 123.2 118.3 119.0 123.2 126.2 129.4 133.9 136.6 Cambodia 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.4 China 1,863.4 2,002.5 2,102.6 2,260.3 2,441.1 2,612.0 2,794.9 2,990.5 Hong Kong 25.5 23.8 2
35、3.5 24.4 25.4 26.0 26.7 27.3 India 409.2 433.3 462.8 492.8 527.3 561.6 600.9 640.0 Indonesia 117.9 124.4 128.0 131.8 137.1 142.6 146.9 152.8 Japan 515.8 507.5 495.0 493.0 487.0 490.0 490.0 495.0 Malaysia 56.4 56.0 54.0 56.2 59.0 61.0 62.9 64.7 Pakistan 64.8 66.5 66.0 68.0 70.4 73.9 77.2 81.4 Philipp
36、ines 24.9 25.0 25.1 26.4 27.7 28.9 31.5 33.1 Singapore 55.1 58.2 54.0 56.0 58.0 59.7 63.3 67.1 South Korea 235.7 240.1 242.0 246.0 252.0 256.0 262.0 266.7 Sri Lanka 11.5 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.5 17.4 19.0 21.0 Taiwan 115.1 112.0 111.0 114.9 118.3 121.9 125.3 128.4 Thailand 86.0 87.3 87.0 89.5 92.5 96.2 1
37、00.0 104.0 Vietnam 55.8 65.8 71.4 78.6 88.0 97.7 106.0 115.5 BMI universe 3,765.5 3,939.3 4,061.0 4,282.2 4,532.7 4,782.2 5,049.0 5,333.6 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Busines
38、s Monitor International Ltd Page 14 Thanks to Indonesia, Australia and Malaysia, the Asia Pacific region is significant as both a supplier and a consumer of natural gas. It is a major and growing feedstock for power generation. The region in 2008 consumed 485 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas (BP da
39、ta), and according to BMI estimates, demand in 2009 was 478bcm. By 2014, we expect the region to be consuming 648bcm of gas. Indonesias estimated 2009 market share of 7.97% is forecasted to ease to 7.24% by 2014. Gas exports by Indonesia totalled some 34bcm in 2009, and the country is forecast to be
40、 exporting 37bcm in 2014. The Asia Pacific region is a net importer of gas due to demand from Japan, South Korea, India and China. The region in 2009 imported an estimated 94bcm, and could be importing 124bcm of gas in 2014. Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) Country 2007 2008 2009
41、e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 24.9 23.5 23.5 24.0 24.7 25.5 29.5 30.3 Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 China 69.5 80.7 85.0 93.5 101.0 110.0 118.3 130.0 Hong Kong 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 India 40.1 41.4 54.1 66.1 78.2 89.0 102.2 114.2 Indonesia 34.0 38.0 38.0 39.5 41.1 43
42、.0 44.2 46.9 Japan 90.2 93.7 92.5 93.9 95.8 97.7 99.6 101.1 Malaysia 28.5 30.7 29.0 30.0 31.5 32.5 33.3 34.1 Pakistan 36.5 37.5 37.0 38.0 39.0 41.0 42.0 43.5 Philippines 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.3 Singapore 8.6 9.2 8.5 9.0 10.0 11.0 11.8 12.7 South Korea 38.5 39.7 45.0 45.9 47.3 48.7 50.2 51.2
43、Sri Lanka 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taiwan 11.8 12.8 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.5 Thailand 35.4 37.4 36.0 37.0 38.9 40.2 41.8 43.9 Vietnam 7.1 7.9 8.8 10.1 11.1 13.0 14.0 16.0 BMI universe 431.5 459.4 476.7 506.7 538.7 572.5 609.1 647.9 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Historical data: BP
44、 Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 15 Coal consumption for 2009 totalled an estimated 2,062mn toe, which represents approximately 3,093mn tonnes of the fuel. By 2014, we expect to see the Asia Pac
45、ific region consuming 2,755mn toe, or 4,133mn tonnes of coal (+26.3% in 2010-2014). Indonesias estimated share of 2009 regional consumption was 1.49%, which we expect to ease to 1.26% by the end of the forecast period. Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) Country 2007 2008 2009e
46、2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Australia 55.8 51.3 53.5 54.5 55.0 56.0 56.4 57.0 Cambodia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 China 1,314.0 1,406.0 1,462.2 1,571.9 1,697.7 1,825.0 1,952.7 2,089.4 Hong Kong 7.5 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 India 212.9 231.4 235.0 240.0 247.0 252.0 260.0 268.0 Indonesia 28.
47、4 30.2 30.8 31.6 33.4 33.4 34.3 34.7 Japan 125.3 128.7 122.0 120.0 120.0 118.0 115.0 115.0 Malaysia 7.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 Pakistan 5.1 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.5 Philippines 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 8.4 8.4 Singapore na na na na na na na 2.0 South Korea 59.7 66.1 70.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 76.9
48、77.0 Sri Lanka 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taiwan 41.8 40.2 40.0 42.0 43.0 43.8 44.7 45.0 Thailand 14.1 15.4 14.9 15.6 15.6 16.8 18.1 18.8 Vietnam 9.9 8.5 8.5 8.7 10.1 11.6 12.5 14.1 BMI universe 1,887.6 2,002.7 2,062.0 2,182.1 2,322.9 2,462.3 2,603.3 2,755.4 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; na = no
49、t available. Source: Historical data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009; BMI; Forecasts: BMI Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 16 Nuclear energy demand, put at 508TWh in 2009 by BMI, accounted for 7.0% of the Asia Pacific power market. By 2014, BMI sees nuclear consumption reaching 719TWh, representing 2010-2014 growth of 32.6%. There is not the same enthusiasm in the region for nuclear power that is seen in the coal and