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1、Q1 2012 real estate report IssN 2040-7688 published by Business Monitor International ltd. taIWaN INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Business Monitor Internat
2、ional. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, e
3、lectronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to
4、be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions a
5、ffecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. TAIWAN REAL ESTATE REPORT Q1 2012 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS T
6、O 2016 Part of BMIs Industry Report Allianz Taiwan Life Insurance taking a 2,160 ping space in Sinyi Building; Cathay Health Magement Consulting taking a 1,010 ping space in the Cathay Dunnan Commercial Building; AXA taking a 590 ping space in the Shin Kong Xinyi Financial Building; Kings Town Bank
7、taking a 410 ping space in the Hung Kuo Building; and Volkswagen Financial Services AG taking a 380 ping space in the Sumitomo Building. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 SWOT Analysis Taiwan Real Estate/Construction SWOT Strengths ? Taiwan has relaxed prote
8、ction of the domestic construction industry, encouraging foreign investment into, and improved efficiency of, the construction industry. ? Investment regulations are changing fast, to the benefit of foreign investors. Investment incentives are becoming more attractive. There are few restraints on th
9、e transfer of funds associated with foreign direct investment. Weaknesses ? On the Jones Lang LaSalle Global Real Estate Transparency Index 2010, Taiwan is rated semi-transparent and is ranked 33rd out of 81 countries surveyed for real estate transparency. ? Licensing of professional engineers and t
10、he dispute settlement process are some of the areas where the Taiwan Construction Committee feels that the industry must improve; failure on these could result in foreign investors losing interest in Taiwan and choosing to focus on opportunities elsewhere. ? Taiwans long-term infrastructural potenti
11、al is low, as the scope for development of this already advanced Asian economy is less than some of its Asian peers. ? Labour shortages and rising land prices are highlighting the limits of potential returns in the Taiwanese construction industry. Opportunities ? Stronger ties with China have led to
12、 increased levels of capital coming into the country. These include the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for financial cooperation, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and the Chinese Free Independent Traveller (FIT) scheme. ? The construction industry should be boosted as the gover
13、nment intends to go ahead with 10 new infrastructure projects. Threats ? A further global financial crisis, due to uncertainty in the US and the eurozone, is on the cards. A slowdown in China would further exacerbate the adverse effects on Taiwan. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor I
14、nternational Ltd Page 8 Taiwan Economic SWOT Strengths ? Taiwan is an increasingly advanced economy, with high-tech industries and a well- educated workforce. This has led to considerable improvements in living standards on the island. ? Thanks to healthy balance of payment dynamics in recent years
15、Taiwan has amassed the worlds fourth-largest foreign exchange reserves, which now stand at over US$380bn and provide an important shock-absorber in the event of external turbulence. Weaknesses ? Taiwan faces both challenges and opportunities from the rise of China, with the formers low value-added m
16、anufacturing sector continuing to migrate across the Taiwan Strait. ? Because of its small size, Taiwans economy remains highly dependent on trade and external demand conditions. This leaves the economy unduly exposed to a slowdown in either of its main trading partners, the US and China. Opportunit
17、ies ? President Ma Ying-jeous push to improve ties with China bodes well for the longer term and should help improve business opportunities for many sectors such as tourism, shipping and banking as well as facilitate greater inward investment. ? Improving cross-Strait relations should provide more o
18、pportunities for Taiwanese companies to expand on the mainland, while also generating investment flows from China. Threats ? Taiwans trade growth is increasingly dependent upon the health of the Chinese economy and domestic policymakers are therefore less able to effectively manage the economy. ? An
19、 unfavourable demographic outlook with the population ageing is likely to exert strain on the fiscal accounts over the coming decades. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Taiwan Business Environment SWOT Strengths ? Increasing land and labour costs have forced
20、 Taiwan to move up the technology ladder, and it is now a leading high-tech centre in Asia. ? Taiwan boasts high-quality infrastructure and a well-educated workforce, making the island an appealing investment destination. Weaknesses ? Tax levels are still considerably higher than in regional rivals
21、Hong Kong and Singapore, the preferred locations for foreign firms seeking a foothold in East Asia. ? Rising land and labour costs have made labour-intensive production in Taiwan uncompetitive relative to mainland China. The migration of the countrys manufacturing industry to China is expected to co
22、ntinue. Opportunities ? The Heritage Foundation ranked Taiwan in 27 th place as a mostly free economy in its 2010 Index of Economic Freedom. This made Taiwan the most free economy in the region after Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. ? Transport links with mainland China are improving as a result of t
23、he rapprochement pursued by President Ma Ying-jeou. Taiwan should be able to consolidate its shipping hub ambitions further. Threats ? There are fears that Taiwanese firms could see a technology leakage to China, eroding one of the islands unique selling points. ? The islands unfavourable long-term
24、demographic outlook could become a yoke on businesses shoulders over the coming decades. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Real Estate Market Overview Taiwans commercial real estate market is expected to continue its growth into 2012, supported by a general
25、ly favourable economy and low interest rates. There are, however, major internal and external risks to this generally positive outlook. Internally, any unexpected rises in interest rates and restrictions of financial lending policy by the Central Bank could severely curtail growth in the sector. Tha
26、t risk has abated somewhat as inflationary pressures have eased. In September 2011, the central bank decided to raise interest rates after five straight quarters of rate hikes. Externally, Taiwan is particularly susceptible to a global economic slowdown. Falling demand from the US and Europe, as wel
27、l as China and Japan, would hurt Taiwans largely export-oriented economy. Indeed, our outlook on Taiwans main trading partners China, the US and Japan is already subdued and we are predicting a slowdown in Taiwans economic growth in the coming months. The Taiwanese government instituted a luxury tax
28、 called the Special Goods and Sales Duty in June 2011. This was aimed at stabilising the housing market, one of the main sources of inflationary pressures on the economy, and fighting speculation in the market. Anyone who sells vacant land and non-residential properties within two years of buying wi
29、ll have to pay a 10% levy, while anyone who sells within one year will pay a 15% tax. The tax has cooled down the residential property market as intended residential property transactions, together with the absolute value of these transactions, have fallen around 10-15% since the beginning of 2011.
30、It has generally reduced speculative investments in the residential property market but not self-occupiers and long-term investors. However, in contrast, the commercial property market has maintained growth despite the introduction of the new tax. Taiwanese broker Sinyi Realty has said that commerci
31、al property transactions in Taipei increased to TWD18.2bn (US$628mn) in Q211, according to Taipei Times. Jones Lang LaSalle reports that average office transaction prices have also grown, while the vacancy rate fell to 11.34% during the same period. Taiwans commercial property sector is benefiting f
32、rom closer economic ties between Taiwan and mainland China. This includes the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for financial cooperation and the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The commercial property market has received a further boost with the relaxation of the visiting rights of
33、 Chinese individuals to Taiwan. Chinese mainland tourists can now visit Taiwan, following an agreement signed on June 13 2011 to implement the (mainland) Chinese Free Independent Traveller (FIT). Xinhua reports that the agreement specifies that a maximum of 3,000 mainland tourists can travel to Taiw
34、an every day. The retail and hoteltourism property sub-sectors are expected to benefit the most from the agreement. Competition for retail space in prime shopping areas of Taipei is already intense, and an influx of Chinese shoppers will likely make that competition even more intense. Jones Lang LaS
35、alle says that Chinese real Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 estate groups are intending to build leisure apartments and invest in hotels. Commercial space in Taipei with low rental rates is being redeveloped into hotels. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012
36、Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 Real Estate Market Analysis Office Sector Average office rental growth rates are in recovery. The main activity is relocations and consolidation, especially by finance institutions. In H111, there was no new supply of office space. In H211, new supply will
37、be minimal. Demand increased to the highest level since 2006, especially in prime locations. Vacancy rates generally declined, although these and rental changes varied somewhat according to grade and geographical areas of Taipei. Jones Lang LaSalle and Colliers both report that in Q211, Grade B spac
38、e outperformed Grade A space in terms of net take-up. Retail Sector Taipeis retail rentals turned around and started growth acceleration from Q211, according to CBRE. Domestic and international retailers have both expanded, especially fast fashion retailers, such as Zara. Industrial Sector Taiwans r
39、obust economy and manufacturing output have seen a high net absorption of high-spec industrial space. Colliers International reported in May 2011 that net take-up was at the highest level since April 2004. Comments And Data From In-Country Sources In H111 in the Taipei office subsector, rental growt
40、h across all grades ranged from -27% to 144%, according to our in-country sources. Retail rental changes in H111 ranged from -28% to 622% y-o-y. In Taipeis industrial subsector in H111, according to our in-country sources, rental growth ranged from 38% to 144%. Table: Taiwans Real Estate Market Hist
41、oric Rents, 2010 And 2011 (m2/month, US$) 2010 Jan-Jun 2010 Jun-Dec 2011 Jan-Jun % of Change Office Min Max Min Max Min Max 2009-2010 Taipei 20.5 41 10 30 15 100 -26.83 - 143.90 Retail Taipei 36.00 72.00 18.00 300.00 26.00 520.00 -27.78 - 622.22 Industrial Taipei 4.10 14.50 4.00 14.00 10.00 20.00 37
42、.93 - 143.90 e = estimate. Source: BMI Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 Table: Taiwans Real Estate Market Net Yields, 2011 And 2012 (%) Office June-Dec 2011 Jul-Dec 2011 2012 Taipei 2-3 2-3 2-3 Retail Taipei 2-3 2-3 2-3 Industrial Taipei 2-4 2-4 2-4 e/f =
43、estimate/forecast. Source: BMI Table: Taiwans Real Estate Market Terms Of Rental Contract/Lease, Mid-2011 Office Term, years Rent-free months Taipei 2-3 None Retail Taipei 3 None Industrial Taipei 3-10 None Source: BMI. Table: Taiwans Real Estate Market Available (m2) And Vacant Space (%), Mid-2011
44、Office Available Vacant Taipei 2 - 3 None Retail Taipei 3 None Industrial Taipei 3 - 10 None na = not available. Source: BMI. Taiwan Real Estate Report Q1 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 14 Industry Forecast Scenario Real Estate Outlook Supply And Demand Office Sector The supply of offi
45、ce space did not change in H111 and it will only increase marginally in H211. More demand is expected from newcomers, multinational corporations and from medium-to-large tenants (including financial institutions) seeking relocation in order to consolidate, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. In 2012, v
46、acancy rates will continue the decline that began in 2010. Colliers reminds us that as a result, we can expect to see higher net absorption and increasing rents Retail Sector Domestic and international retailers, especially fast fashion retailers, are expected to continue growth. The mainland Chines
47、e Free Independent Traveller (FIT) scheme is expected to boost retail as well as hotel demand. In 2012, retail supply is likely to remain restricted in the face of increasing demand, which CBRE says is leading to expectations of rental growth. Industrial Sector In high-spec industrial space, supply
48、is likely to remain limited in the face of sustained demand, according to Colliers. The main location is Neihu Technology Park. Vacancy rates will fall and rents grow through 2012. Rents And Yields Rental rates are trending up for the office, retail and industrial subsectors in Taipei. In 2012, our
49、in- country sources predict that the average rental rates across all subsectors will increase by 3-10%. Yields are expected to track sideways in 2012, unchanged from H111. In the office and retail sub-sectors, yields in 2012 are expected to remain at 2-3%, and in the industrial sub-sector, at 2-4%, which is pretty much as they were at the end of 2010, having dropped substantially since 2009. Taiwan Rea