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1、Q3 2011 telecommunications RepoRt issn 1754-7059 published by Business monitor international ltd. noRtH aFRica INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International Limited 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2011 Busines
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4、urces believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccurac
5、ies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. NORTH AFRICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS REPORT Q3 2
6、011 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2015 Part of BMIs Industry Report these include France Tlcom, Tecom, Wataniya Telecom/Q-Tel and Orascom. ? Three mobile operators now present in all markets except for Libya. ? Despite high penetration rates, the regions mobile market offer reasonable room for furthe
7、r growth. ? A strong market for 3G services exists in Morocco; 3G services are also now available in Tunisia. ? Although ARPUs are not enormous by Middle Eastern standards, they are generally higher than in other regions of Africa. Weaknesses ? A high level of prepaid subscribers in mobile markets h
8、as, to a large degree, not been corrected, leading to lower ARPUs and multiple inactive subscribers. ? The regions more developed markets are now showing slower growth. ? With the exception of Morocco, 3G services have been slow to become available. ? Markets still not fully liberalised, with the ca
9、ncellation of Algrie Tlcoms privatisation an unfortunate step in the wrong direction. Opportunities ? Some operators have made some progress on improving their subscriber mix. ARPUs can be increased if operators target higher spending prepaid customers and convert them to postpaid contracts. ? Oppor
10、tunities exist to develop and market value-added services (VAS) and applications for next generation mobile networks. ? Algeria may be planning to issue 4G operating licences. ? New operating licences either planned or recently awarded should stimulate greater competition and boost growth. Threats ?
11、 More competition could see ARPUs squeezed unless operators can capture VAS opportunities. ? Political change in Libya and Tunisia was assisted by modern communications services; it is possible that the new regimes will appreciate the power of the mobile phone and internet and seek to clamp down on
12、these resources while they consolidate their positions. The Algerian government might also seek to pre-empt revolutionaries use of public communications services should the prospect of rebellion arise. North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 North Afr
13、ica Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT Strengths ? Presence of strong foreign investors, including Tecom and France Tlcom, brings excellent resources and experience to North African fixed-line and broadband markets. ? Fixed-line and internet penetration levels are relatively high. ? Fixed-line sectors ha
14、ve been holding out against phenomena such as mobile substitution. ? In most markets, broadband services have yet to make a great impact; they have, nevertheless, shown a tendency towards steady and tenacious growth. Weaknesses ? Mobile substitution is starting to become more of a serious threat to
15、the regions fixed-line markets. ? With the exception of Morocco, little competition exists within the regions fixed-line telephony sectors. ? Markets still not fully liberalised, with the cancellation of Algrie Tlcoms privatisation an unfortunate step in the wrong direction. Opportunities ? Broadban
16、d growth has been adequate but there is room for much more progress, with price being a key factor. ? Opportunities exist to develop alternative fixed broadband technologies such as WiMAX and fibre. ? The introduction of competition into the fixed-line market of Tunisia is a positive step, although
17、we will have to wait a while to feel its impact. ? France Tlcom bought a 40% stake in Meditel: new investment for Meditel could bring renewed vivacity to Moroccos fixed-wireless sector. Threats ? More competition could see fixed-line and internet ARPUs becoming squeezed, unless operators can capture
18、 VAS opportunities. ? Danger that rapidly expanding mobile broadband sectors could dampen growth in demand for fixed broadband services such as ADSL; this already appears to be happening in Morocco. ? Political change in Libya and Tunisia was assisted by modern communications services; it is possibl
19、e that the new regimes will appreciate the power of the mobile phone and internet and seek to clamp down on these resources while they consolidate their positions. The Algerian government might also seek to pre-empt revolutionaries use of public communications services should the prospect of rebelli
20、on arise. North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Business Environment Middle East And North Africa With the majority of markets in the Middle East already beyond maturity, changes to their positions in BMIs Business Environment Ratings can be the res
21、ult of tiny increases or decreases to just one of the factors considered when analysing the telecoms markets. Meanwhile, the high political and economic volatility in the region means Country Structure and Country Risk factors continue to play a major role in the overall ratings of many countries in
22、 the region. That said, BMI notes there are still markets with organic growth potential in the mobile sector, while the broadband sector in most markets is still largely underserved. The relatively low average Industry Risk rating of 54 is indicative of the lack of complete independence of many nati
23、onal regulators and high risk of external interference regulatory processes. Meanwhile, the governments of many markets in the region still hold significant interests in their incumbent operators, limiting the full liberalisation of the telecoms market in those countries. This quarter there were a f
24、ew changes to the ARPUs reported by operators across the region, leading to a few shifts in the order of countries. Israels scores remained unchanged with its Country Rewards rating and higher overall Risks scores helping to counter a somewhat mediocre Industry Rewards rating. Certainly Israel has m
25、any benefits, including a largely young and highly urbanised population that has responded well to the developments in the telecoms industry. Israels lower Industry Rewards score comes from the limited prospects for continued growth. One of the more significant shifts in order this quarter was Bahra
26、in, which moved up one place to take second behind Israel and ahead of Saudi Arabia for the first time. Bahrains improvement was mainly driven by its Country Rewards rating, which benefited from a more positive outlook to its GDP per capita. There was no change to its Industry Rewards and Country Ri
27、sk ratings. Meanwhile, the country continues to enjoy a relatively high Industry Risks rating of 80 due to fewer external interference in its telecoms market. Saudi Arabia has the highest Industry Rewards score in the region due to its large population, as well as the seasonal surge in demand for ne
28、w lines and revenues during the annual Muslim pilgrimage to that country. It is particularly the high spend of subscribers in the country that holds this score so high, although continued forecast growth is also a major factor. Several markets in the MENA region saw increases to ARPUs as the regions
29、 operators recover from any dip in spending seen in previous quarters. However, it is noteworthy that the Shura Council, a top advisory body to the Saudi monarch, called for the governments intervention in what it believes is the high tariffs charged by mobile operators. BMI expects the Ministry of
30、Communication and Information to take the concerns of the council seriously; North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9 however, we caution that direct government intervention in operators pricing strategy will reduce the attractiveness of the Saudi mark
31、et to investors and would inevitably lead to a downgrading of the countrys Industry Risks rating. An improvement to Qatars Industry Rewards score has seen it consolidate its position among the top five countries. However, it continues to be held back by its Industry Risks score due to the government
32、s interest in Qtel. There is no indication of the governments intention to exit the incumbent anytime soon, potentially limiting its likelihood of breaking back into the top three countries in the region. Nonetheless, attempts to introduce new competition through licensing Vodafone Qatar to offer wi
33、reline services in addition to its nascent mobile services, and the licensing of Virgin Mobile Qatar, is a step in the right direction. Kuwait and Oman also report similar ratings, but a slide in Kuwaits Industry Rewards ratings, despite an improvement to its Country Rewards and Country Risks rating
34、s, has seen it slide behind Oman into sixth position from fifth last quarter. Changing ARPU was the primary cause behind rating moves this quarter, with a tiny change potentially having a strong impact. Operators in both countries saw ARPUs fall, but, when combined with the prospects for continued g
35、rowth, ratings can be impacted significantly. The next three markets have quite close scores and tend to swap places quite often. The UAE, Iraq and Jordan see different ratings affect their overall scores. However, Jordan saw the biggest jump this quarter as it moved up two places into seventh posit
36、ion following a significant improvement to its Industry Rewards rating. BMI notes that the UAE could move significantly higher than its current position were it to show an improvement in its Industry Risks rating. However, the government has given no hint of any intention to exit its holding in Etis
37、alat, and the companys expected acquisition of a 46% stake in Zain makes this even less likely. Iraq has plenty of potential although the risks in the market are high. This accounts for Iraqs dismal Country Risk score. While the parliamentary approval granted to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malikis
38、 coalition government in December 2010 indicates that the policy-making process is likely to improve significantly in 2011, we maintain our view that the political situation will remain unstable and progress is likely to remain slow going forward. All this combines to create a shaky outlook for the
39、Iraqi economy, which does not spell particularly good news for telecoms operators seeking revenue growth. However, there are many potential new subscribers out there to be had, keeping Iraqs Industry Rewards score high on the back of a very strong forecast growth rate. North African markets take up
40、the next five spots with diminishing Industry Rewards ratings deciding the ranking of the countries. Libya tops the group with the highest Industry Reward score by some margin. This relates to its exceptionally high potential for continued growth. Even with a penetration rate on a par with its peers
41、, Libya is set to experience continued strong growth. We believe there are many inactive North Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 subscribers included in the limited data available regarding the market, given the preponderance of prepaid subscribers.
42、Where Libya also benefits is in a strong Country Rewards score. In fact, Egypt and Algeria, ranked thirteenth and fourteenth respectively, have greater growth potential than Libya with penetration rates below 100%. The latter is expected to reach this rate at the end of 2010, but both will continue
43、to see good growth. As with higher ranking markets, it is the ARPU factor that brings these countries their low Industry Rewards score. Egypts Country Rewards rating holds it back with a below average Country Risk score also limiting growth potential. Algeria is largely the reverse, with stronger sc
44、ores for Country Risk and Country Rewards, held back by the notably low Industry Rewards score. Just above these two markets are Morocco and Tunisia, which hold identical ratings for Industry Rewards and Country Rewards. Morocco pulls ahead with its stronger Industry Risks score, countering a weaker
45、 rating for Country Risk. Iran rounds off our ratings with its position at the bottom of the table guaranteed by fairly weak scores across the board. For the region, Irans Country Rewards rating is quite low, although on a global scale it is about average. Irans population are predominantly urban dw
46、ellers, but there is still a significant proportion located in more remote areas, making the deployment of infrastructure more difficult. However, among Irans advantages are its largely young population and potential for continued growth, one of the few markets in the Middle East and North Africa ra
47、tings to hold such promise for telecoms operators. North Africa At the time of collating the BERs for the Middle East and North Africa, the political outlook was particularly precarious. In mid-March, the UN backed a no-fly zone and approved all necessary measures to protect civilians as Libyas conf
48、lict began. Shortly before, the political party of ousted President Ben Ali was dissolved, after he had fled the country. Morocco and Tunisia managed to remain relatively stable, although there were protests in both countries and concessions made by politicians to ease the pressure and avoid the tro
49、ubles seen in neighbouring countries. Morocco benefitted from an increase in its Industry Rewards score, as BMI noted positive moves from the government to improve competition in the market. Morocco is the highest scoring market in North Africa, edging ahead of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria. It moved up one place as Libya fell two places. The countrys avoidance of the political upheaval seen in neighbouring countries has certainly helped, not to ment