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5、 ISSN: 2041-014X China Textiles BMI; 3 NBS China Textiles the supplier manufactures it to the required specification. A further stage occurs when the manufacturer starts making its own designs and then begins to sell its own branded products; this is known as original brand name manufacturing (OBM).
6、 The textile industry is one of the worlds oldest, with wool, cotton, flax, and silk in use for the production of fabrics and clothing for centuries. Each underwent three main stages of processing: first, preparation for spinning, second, spinning, and third, weaving or knitting. Spinning wheels are
7、 thought to be one of the earliest known examples of technology used by humans. Improvements in the production process, principally the mechanisation of spinning and weaving, were at the centre of the industrial revolution in Britain starting in the 18th century. By the 20th century many emerging ec
8、onomies had begun to use their comparative advantage in raw materials and labour to develop their own textile industries, often as part of an import-substituting industrialisation process, and later as global competitors in their own right, capable of securing a rising share of world markets. The 20
9、th century also saw the rapid development of various types of artificial and synthetic fibres, including rayon (1910), nylon (1939), polyester (1953) and spandex (1959). China Textiles 1982 = 100. Source: Womens Wear Daily Synthetic Fibres In H209 global synthetic fibre markets were expected to rema
10、in influenced by lower clothing demand. The global recession continued to play a role more widely as well, particularly through the slump in the automobile sector, which reduced demand for vehicle upholstery and furnishings. As in other textile sectors, there were indications that the market had had
11、 bottomed after the initial wave of inventory reductions, and that demand had begun to stabilise. By the end of June 2009 polyester staple prices, at USc79 were some 10% down on year-earlier levels; polyester filament, at USc68 per kg, were down 16.0%, and the synthetic fibre producer price index wa
12、s showing somewhat greater resilience, with a y-o- y fall of just over 5%. Trade sources estimated that global man-made fibre and filament production in 2007 was around 68.7mn tonnes, of which 60% or 41.2mn were manmade. The share of man-made fibres (MMF) has been gradually pushing up, with annual g
13、rowth of just over 6%. Within this sector, polyester dominates. BMI believes MMF will continue to show relatively good growth despite the recession because lower oil and petrochemical prices have increased its competitive advantage relative to natural fibres. That said, however, in Q209 (particularl
14、y May and June) international oil pries began to push up again (although they remained about half the level of Q208). Fibre Organon, an industry publication, predicts that worldwide polyester capacity will rise to 42.2mn tonnes a year by the end of 2009, up 4.7% on the 40.3mn tonnes a year at the be
15、ginning of 2008. China Textiles international same-store sales fell 5% y-o-y. June was a transitional month as all of our brands made progress clearing through summer merchandise. Were pleased that our total company merchandise margins were above last year, said chief financial officer Sabrina Simmo
16、ns. Source: theappointment.co.uk (July 2009) Latest Activity Gap chairman and CEO Glenn Murphy told investors in June that the companys priority was to stabilise its North American business and begin winning back market share. Speaking to the 29th Piper Jaffray Annual Consumer Conference, he said Ga
17、p would remodel about 50 of its Old Navy outlets in 2009, saying that early results from a prototype store, demonstrate the new layouts create a better experience for our customers that better captures the unique energy thats central to Old Navys fun personality. Murphy said Gaps online and internat
18、ional businesses continue to offer solid growth potential and had added about US$500mn in revenue during 2006-2008. Source: Computers, Networks And Communications (June 4 2009) Prior Activity In April 2009, Crains New York Business profiled the mixed performance of the Old Navy brand. Crains noted t
19、hat Old Navy had recently launched a commercial campaign featuring talking mannequins. Reviews were mixed, but the TV spots were gathering a buzz, something the ailing chain had not been able to do for some time. Theyre doing something thats getting awareness out, said president of WSL Strategic Ret
20、ail China Textiles f = forecast. Source: UNESCO China Textiles na = not available. Source: World Bank, Country data; BMI calculation China Textiles & Clothing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 43 Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 2005 2006 2007e 2008f 2009f 20
21、10f 2012f CNY 15,757 17,966 19,883 22,130 24,000 25,777 30,292 Wage growth, % y-o-y 12.2 14.0 10.6 11.3 8.4 7.4 8.6 US$ 1,923 2,263 2,633 3,162 3,735 4,314 5,636 e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Forecasts based on average productivity growth and domestic inflation. Source: ILO, BMI China Textiles & Clot
22、hing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 44 China Textiles & Clothing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 45 Global Assumptions Global Outlook With the stabilisation in the global economy comes a stabilisation in our global growth forecasts. From a previous -2.6
23、%, we have tweaked our global real GDP growth projection for 2009 to -2.5%, and are increasingly aware of upside risks. Our core view that the Q408-Q109 period would be the worst of this economic cycle has been borne out by the data, and key indicators from the US in May and June suggest that a slug
24、gish recovery may be in store for H209. Table: BMIs Global Assumptions, 2007-2013 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f Real GDP growth, % US 2.0 1.1 -3.0 1.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 Eurozone 2.7 0.8 -4.2 0.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 Japan 2.4 -0.7 -6.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 2.0 China 13.0 9.0 6.8 7.6 8.4 7.7 7.6 World 4.1 2.3 -2.5
25、 1.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 Consumer inflation, average US 2.9 3.8 -0.9 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 Eurozone 2.1 2.8 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 Japan 0.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1 China 4.8 5.9 0.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.7 World 3.5 5.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 Interest rates, end of period Fed funds rate 4.25 0.00 0.00 1.00 3.00 4.25 4.25 E
26、CB refinancing rate 4.00 2.50 1.00 2.00 3.50 4.00 4.00 Japan overnight call rate 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.75 1.25 1.25 Exchange rates, average US$/EUR 1.46 1.47 1.28 1.29 1.34 1.29 1.25 JPY/US$ 117.75 103.34 99.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00 CNY/US$ 7.60 6.95 6.84 6.72 6.45 6.20 6.00 Oil prices, averag
27、e, US$/bbl OPEC basket 69.00 95.40 45.50 48.50 56.50 71.50 81.50 Brent Crude 72.83 97.06 49.00 52.00 60.00 75.00 85.00 f = forecasts. Source: BMI However, we are not revising up our 2010 global growth forecast of 1.7%, as we do not believe that much impetus exists for a significant economic bounce.
28、Rather, it is a matter of growth accounting. Things were so bad in the trough of the recession that it will not require much to make future economic activity look China Textiles & Clothing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 46 strong by comparison. The second half of 2009 will be
29、 characterised by inventory rebuilding and global fiscal and monetary stimulus pushing headline GDP numbers higher. However, we remain concerned by the prospects for deflation, and the likelihood that growth is going to have to be sacrificed for the sake of the expensive fiscal and monetary stimulus
30、 that has helped avert an all-out meltdown this year. Developed States A weak recovery is still a recovery, and that is what we envisage for several developed states in the latter half of 2009 and early 2010. Most significantly, we have revised our US real GDP growth forecast from - 3.3% to -3.0% in
31、 2009, although we are keeping our 2010 forecast at 1.2%. We still believe that the US is among the developed countries best poised to emerge from the recession. This is reflected by our continuied view that Japan (-6.1% in 2009, 0.7% in 2010) and the eurozone (-4.2% in 2009, 0.1% in 2010, the latte
32、r a slight downgrade from 0.2% previously) will recover later and more weakly. Overall, our developed market aggregate real GDP growth forecasts are -3.8% for 2009 and 0.7% in 2010. Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f World 2.3 -2.5 1.7 3.4 Developed states 0
33、.7 -3.8 0.7 2.3 Asia, excl. Japan 6.5 3.5 5.7 6.7 Emerging Europe 4.3 -5.5 1.5 3.9 Latin America 4.1 -2.6 0.7 2.9 Middle East and North Africa 6.0 1.3 3.5 4.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 -0.1 2.7 5.4 f = forecasts. Source: BMI Emerging Markets The economic situation is improving across the emerging world
34、, and we now believe that due to a resurgence in Chinese activity, growth in emerging markets can come in positive territory in 2009 (0.1%, from -0.2% previously). However, we still project a weak 2010. Emerging Asia leads the way, thanks almost entirely to our upward revisions for growth in China (
35、to 6.8% and 7.6% in 2009 and 2010, from 5.6% and 6.8%, respectively). The region, excluding Japan, is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2009, up from our previous 3.0% forecast, and next year we see a 5.7% expansion, from 5.3% previously. As such, Asia will be the best performer over the two-year period.
36、China Textiles & Clothing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 47 In contrast, we still believe that Emerging Europe will underperform the rest of the world in 2009, owing to the combined shock of unwinding leverage and a lack of external demand. We project a -5.5% real GDP perform
37、ance in 2009, as the Baltic states put in negative double-digit performances and Russia (- 6.8%) and Turkey (-5.7%) both suffer. Only a modest regional recovery is in store for 2010, of just 1.5%. Latin America stands to gain from a potential rebound in the US economy and commodity prices, but we re
38、main cautious, and have left our regional growth forecast unchanged for 2009, at -2.6%. We have not changed our aggregate forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa, which will grow by 1.3% in 2009 and 3.5% in 2010, with most states avoiding full-year contractions in both years. Our forecasts ha
39、ve been revised slightly downwards for Sub-Saharan Africa , however, with a revised outlook for an -0.1% outturn in 2009 (0.0% previously) and 2.7% in 2010 (2.8% previously), primarily due to a downgrade in the outlook for Angola (to -2.5% in 2009, from -0.7% previously). Table: Developed Market Exc
40、hange Rates, 2008-2011 (average) 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f US/Eurozone US$/EUR 1.47 1.28 1.29 1.34 Japan/US JPY/US$ 103.34 99.00 110.00 110.00 Switzerland/US CHF/US$ 1.10 1.20 1.28 1.19 US/UK US$/GBP 1.85 1.47 1.50 1.58 f = forecasts. Source: BMI Table: Key Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (av
41、erage against US dollar) 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f China CNY/US$ 6.95 6.84 6.72 6.45 South Korea KRW/US$ 1,076.78 1,231.00 1,175.00 1,125.00 India INR/US$ 43.40 48.29 46.50 44.50 Brazil BRL/US$ 1.84 2.48 2.48 2.08 Mexico MXN/US$ 11.15 14.18 14.35 13.50 Russia RUB/US$ 24.86 33.20 36.00 34.50 Turkey TRY/
42、US$ 1.30 1.69 1.80 1.68 South Africa ZAR/US$ 8.25 9.12 8.55 7.65 f = forecasts. Source: BMI China Textiles & Clothing Report Q4 2009 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 48 Methodology Definition Of Manufacturing Value Added Value added in manufacturing refers to industries belonging to ISIC divi
43、sions 15-37. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. The origin of value added is determined by the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), revision 3. Source: the World Banks World Development Indicators database.