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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe United Kingdom Oil ENI lags (for now) . 12 Decade of two halves . 14 Near term the Asia Pacific basin is short with little scope for relief 14 Demand to 2020 and beyond . 16 Underlying growth augmented by new demand centres 16 LNG supply to 2025 24 Many horses b
2、ut several will fail to reach the FID post . 24 The supply opportunity with 80mtpa in build, 190mtpa of further additions by 2025 . 24 US exports what should we expect? . 29 Where to price - Oil linkage to remain but with a slice of Hub? 32 US LNG exports the chance for the arbitrageur to rejuvenate
3、 . 33 LNG to 2025: Corporate implications . 35 An attractive end market offering strong growth potential . 35 The Companies: Overview 38 Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors 2017 vs. 2012 . 38 Comparing and contrasting the LNG majors Side by Side . 39 Appendix A: US exports and European gas . 54
4、 Appendix B: US supplier economics 57 Sabine Pass - what does it tell us about capacity charge flex? . 57 Appendix C: Shipping in brief . 59 Those relying on short term charters risk losing upside 59 Appendix D: Portfolios Wood Mackenzie Inc RDS, XOM, CVX, BP, ENI, BG, TOTF, STL Source: Deutsche Ban
5、k; Wood Mackenzie The major oil Energy intelligence Source: Deutsche Bank; Wood Mackenzie GLO Near term great but discoveries, US exports all add longer term uncertainty Yet where near term visibility is in our opinion as good as we can remember the discovery of up to 100TCF of new gas resource off
6、the coast of East Africa together with a flood of export applications in North America argue that the balance in the market is set to change. Buyers ostensibly look set to find themselves in a much stronger negotiating position. Equally, the emergence of the US as a potential supply source has raise
7、d important questions on the sustainability of the historic linkage between contract LNG prices and the oil price, let alone whether a repeat of the US shale experience in China could materially undermine projected future LNG demand. Thus, where we are confident in the favourable outlook for the mar
8、ket through at least the middle of the current decade, push beyond and several questions arise around the sources of supply, the nature of pricing and, perhaps most fundamentally, the outlook for demand. For without demand you dont have a contract. And in an industry where construction costs run in
9、multiple $-billions and speculative build DOES NOT HAPPEN, if you dont have a contract, you dont have a project. Projections for demand are therefore absolutely fundamental to the supply industrys prospects. Underlying growth augmented by new demand centres Over the past two decades the LNG market h
10、as grown at a compound rate of c7% p.a with demand driven, amongst others, by strong growth in the developed Asian economies (JKT), lower relative pricing and the shift towards lower carbon fuels. To the As LNG becomes a larger part of the whole how comfortable are we on the outlook? In the near ter
11、m we have little doubt that barring a demand collapse across Asia the global market for LNG will exhibit increasing tightness through at least 2015 Yet where near term visibility is robust the emergence of several new sources of supply raise questions over execution, delivery and price Thus push bey
12、ond and several questions arise around the sources of supply, the nature of pricing and, perhaps most fundamentally, the outlook for demand 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Deutsche Bank AG/London Page5 extent growth has moderated in developed markets on a decade by decade bas
13、is this has been more than offset by the emergence of new demand centres, largely as developing economies have increasingly introduced lower cost gas into the fuel mix. Figure 5: LNG demand growth two decades of growth at some 6-8% with moderating underlying growth augmented by new demand centres mt
14、pa mtpa 1990-2000 1990-2000 2000-20102000-20102010-2020E2010-2020E2020-2025E2020-2025E Demand start 55.9 102.7219.3368.7 Demand end 102.7 219.3368.7457.2 Growth rate % 6.3% 7.9%5.3%4.4% New sources 483127 Growth rate underlying % 6.3% 5.2%4.4%3.1% Source: Deutsche Bank; Wood Mackenzie estimates Look
15、ing ahead, this healthy growth trend is expected to continue with demand supported by increased concerns around nuclear energy and the ongoing shift towards lower carbon fuel. Equally, where growth from existing end markets is expected to slow, new sources of demand continue to emerge. At the presen
16、t time over 20 countries as diverse as Thailand through Poland through Jordan are estimated to have firm plans to import LNG with some 75mtpa of new import facilities in train. New geographies aside, however, the main drivers of growth in existing markets are expected to change with China and India
17、contributing increasingly to existing market expansion. Taken together Wood Mac estimates suggest that it is China and India that will account for c65-70mtpa or 2010-20 demand growth or broadly half of the projected growth in demand (c35mtpa of which has already been contracted). Figure 6: Major eco
18、nomies energy mix shows scope for EM growth in gas Figure 7: China, India and other Asia are account for over 50% LNG demand 28% 25% 20% 13% 16% 10% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USEuropean 5JapanTaiwanKoreaIndiaChina CoalOilGasNuclearHydroelectricityOther renewables 10% 0% 26% 32%
19、14% 9% 10% 2% 0% 3% 20% 13% n.a. 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% EuropeAmericasJKTChinaIndiaOther AsiaOther % total volume growthCAGR 2020/10 (%) Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy China and India both certainly
20、 hold significant potential Considering Chinas demand potential a country whose coal market is equivalent to the global LNG market seven times over - there are clear reasons to our minds for believing that LNG is set to show healthy growth. Not least is the Governments desire to gasify the economy a
21、nd carry gas share of the energy mix from c4% in 2010 to 10% by 2020. Assuming an economy that grows at c.7% p.a. over the decade our analysis of the different sources of gas supply (piped imports, indigenous conventional and shale) suggests that by 2020 China could easily require c60mtpa of LNG. Th
22、is is despite our somewhat aggressive assumption that China will meet its official shale objective by 2020 of producing c60-100bcm of gas from shale from verging on nothing today. Similarly, our analysis of Indias gas markets suggests significant potential for growth. Over the past two decades gas d
23、emand has expanded by 8% p.a. With few new indigenous sources of gas and the giant Reliance/BP KG6 field suffering significant delivery issues there are certainly robust short term arguments for a surge in LNG LNG demand accelerated over the last decade and has expanded at a compound 7% over the pas
24、t 20 years Growth has been from existing but also the emergence of new markets The shape of demand growth going forwards changes with India and China accounting for almost 50% of expected market demand growth 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Page6 Deutsche Bank AG/London deman
25、d. Overall, our modeling suggests that assuming 5% p.a. gas demand growth, India will require around 40mtpa of LNG by 2020, a c32mtpa increase on 2010 although we suspect that, because of Indias faltering energy policies and price structures, LNGs full potential is unlikely to be realized. Figure 8:
26、 China energy demand growth 1990-2010 looks unsustainable Figure 9: China energy demand in 2010 expressed in LNG equivalence 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 mtoe OilGas CoalNuclear HydroRenew
27、ables Oil 366 mtpa Gas 93 mtpa Coal 1458 mtpa Nuclear 68 mtpa Hydro 124 mtpa Renewables 14 mtpa Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review of world energy We estimate that by 2020 LNG demand could comfortably rise to c370mtpa Taken in ag
28、gregate our analysis suggests that, even if we allow for a reversal of much of the c10-12mtpa Fukushima benefit seen in Japan global LNG demand should rise from c220mtpa in 2010 to nearer 370mpa by 2020 (c60-70mtpa growth from India and China, 30mtpa from new markets and just over 2% annual average
29、growth elsewhere). As to the outlook beyond 2020, our central expectation is that natural gas demand will continue to outpace that for energy as a whole, with LNG retaining a premium growth rate. And where the advent of shale gas most definitely adds uncertainty for the LNG demand outlook in China (
30、both positive and negative depending upon how things break), our analysis shows that with only some 12mtpa of 2020 demand expected to arise in countries with true shale potential (US, Argentina and Mexico) the loss of a significant source of current demand to shale elsewhere is highly unlikely. Figu
31、re 10: Gas as % overall energy mix Non-OECD still well below OECD Figure 11: Founder projects start to enter decline post 2018 adding to supply needs 20.6% 20.4% 19.6% 22.6% 24.9% 9.4% 11.3% 13.8% 15.9% 17.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 19701980199020002010 OECD gasNon OECD gas ex Russia
32、 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 mtpa ADGASBontangBruneiMalaysiaALNG c.30mtpa decline foreseen 2018-25 from formative schemes Source: Deutsche Bank; BP Statistical Review Source: Wood Mackenzie GLO; Deutsche Bank We estimate global LNG demand of c450mtpa
33、 by 2025 As to where the market moves beyond 2020, we accept that the imponderables mean forecasting could almost be described as foolhardy. Nevertheless, assume LNG markets continue to expand at around 4-5% p.a. as new markets emerge and by 2025 it would not seem unreasonable to anticipate global m
34、arket demand of between 450-470mtpa. At broadly twice the current 220mtpa market this certainly suggests that the appetite for supply is going to be considerable. Moreover, as we move towards the next decade resource depletion will see a number of founder supply projects (Brunei, Abu Dhabi, Malaysia
35、 and Indonesia) enter decline. Include an estimated c.30mtpa of supply loss here and by 2025 the market looks likely to require around 270mtpa of supply relative to its effective 2010 capacity. By 2020 our analysis suggests the potential for a c370mtpa market relative to 220mtpa in 2010 Move to 2025
36、 and we see the market demand at c450mtpa. Shale gas could undermine future Chinese growth but China aside shales impact looks likely to be modest 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Deutsche Bank AG/London Page7 LNG supply to 2025 many horses but several will fall It is all very
37、 well to have in place a significant reserve of stranded gas. But absent end market visibility on at least 75-80% of a projects intended output no rational supplier (or for that matter, project financier) would commit the $ billions of capital required to build a world scale LNG facility. In short d
38、emand comes before supply; commitment for off-take before commitment to build. We see a supply requirement of an incremental 270mtpa by 2025 Faced with potential global LNG demand by 2025 of c460mtpa we see scope for an incremental 240mtpa of supply over and above that realized in 2010. Add to this
39、the perceived loss of some 30mtpa of output from projects moving into decline and the required increase in supply rises to nearer 270mtpa. Strip out 80mtpa of developments in train and our analysis suggests the potential for c190mtpa of additional supply between now and 2025. Relative to a market wh
40、ich today stands at 220mtpa this is clearly a large increment. Yet, analyzing Wood Mackenzies database suggests at least some 360mtpa of supply options across a broad range of geographies or broadly twice the level of supply options than our 2025 demand estimate would support. Faced with this wealth
41、 of potential options it thus comes as little surprise that investors should express concern on the impact that increased competition between the different supply projects could have on industry profitability and pricing. These fears have only been compounded by the multitude of US export schemes no
42、w mooted. In an industry where pricing fluctuates with the cycle, next wave price terms must be expected to fall. Figure 12: Prices on long term contracts alternate across the cycle Figure 13: The geographic disposition of potential supply schemes by 2025 0 5 10 15 20 25 5060708090100110120 LNG pric
43、e ($mmbtu) Oil ParityNWS - Guangdong (2002)Tangguh -Fujian (2003) Sakhalin - Tokyo Gas (2004)NWS recontracts 1 (2006)NWS recontracts 2 (2006) Gorgon-Petrochina (2007)Rasgas - Kogas (2006)Qatargas 2 - Chubu (2007) BG Curtis (2010)Qatar-Tepco (2012) Oil price $/bbl Where costs drove the initial change
44、s in pricing, more recently the supply/demand cycle has played an important role with prices peaking in 08 and troughing in 10 C y c l e C o s t US LNG 15% Canada/Alaska LNG 11% AB expansions 3% Australian LNG 8% Australia expansion 9% East African LNG 8% Nigeria LNG 12% Russian LNG 6% Iranian LNG 6
45、% Venezuela LNG 4% T Wood Mackenzie data Source: Wood Mackenzie GLO How far can pricing truly fall before supply is no longer economic? Yet in a world where upstream development costs have broadly trebled over the past decade how far can pricing really fall before the economics of the different sche
46、mes shift to a level at which capital is no longer invested? Modeling the different supply schemes to assess the prices required to deliver a 12% IRR based across a host of different geographies we have sought to establish a marginal cost curve for the upstream industry for supply delivered into Tok
47、yo Bay. Illustrated in Figure 14 this highlights the relatively high cost of both Australian and Russian LNG (c$13/mmbtu), the far better positioning of East Africa (c$9/mmbtu) and the strong cost advantages of US brown-field, Canadian and Nigerian supply schemes (c$8/mmbtu and below). For the US, h
48、owever, equally apparent is the much higher cost of shipping a feature which of itself eats significantly into the notable cost advantage inherent in the US schemes. No demand, no supply. The industry does not build speculatively. This is important. A project without a contract for demand is not a p
49、roject Include the loss of c30mtpa of founder project supply by 2025 and we see the need for c270mtpa of new supply by 2025. 80mtpa of this is today in construction. Unmet demand thus looks like c190mtpa 360mtpa of supply schemes are detailed in Wood Macs database by 2025 almost twice the demand we envisage What price is needed to attract supply for a 12% IRR? Our modeling suggests that a minimum netback price of c$10/mmbtu is required. 27 August 2012 Integrated Oils European Integrated Oils Page8 Deutsche Bank AG/London Figure 14: A mar