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1、 Reference number ISO 13381-1:2004(E) ISO 2004 INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13381-1 First edition 2004-11-01 Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelines Surveillance et diagnostic des machines Pronostic Partie 1: Lignes directrices gnrales Copyright Internat
2、ional Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) PDF disclaimer This PDF file may contain embe
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7、ase postale 56 CH-1211 Geneva 20 Tel. + 41 22 749 01 11 Fax + 41 22 749 09 47 E-mail copyrightiso.org Web www.iso.org Published in Switzerland ii ISO 2004 All rights reserved Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechni
8、c Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) ISO 2004 All rights reserved iii Contents Page Forewordiv Introduction v 1 Scope1 2 Normative references .1 3 Terms and definitions.1 4 Pre-requisite da
9、ta required 2 5 Prognosis concepts3 5.1 Basic concepts3 5.2 Influence factors .5 5.3 Setting alert, alarm and trip (shut-down) limits .6 5.4 Multiple parameter analysis.8 5.5 Initiation criteria 10 5.6 Prognosis of failure mode initiation11 6 Failure and deterioration models used for prognostics .12
10、 6.1 Modelling concepts for failure mode behaviour12 6.2 Modelling types.13 7 Generic prognosis process13 7.1 Prognosis confidence levels .13 7.2 Prognosis process13 8 Prognosis report .15 Annex A (normative) Condition monitoring flowchart .16 Annex B (normative) Example of the determination of the
11、confidence level of a prognosis.17 Annex C (informative) Failure modelling techniques .18 Bibliography .20 Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduc
12、tion or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) iv ISO 2004 All rights reserved Foreword ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards
13、is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take pa
14、rt in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization. International Standards are drafted in accordance with the rules given in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. The main task of technical committees is to
15、prepare International Standards. Draft International Standards adopted by the technical committees are circulated to the member bodies for voting. Publication as an International Standard requires approval by at least 75 % of the member bodies casting a vote. Attention is drawn to the possibility th
16、at some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. ISO 13381-1 was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 108, Mechanical vibration and shock, Subcommittee SC 5, Condition monitoring and diagn
17、ostics of machines. ISO 13381 consists of the following parts, under the general title Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics: Part 1: General guidelines Future parts are under preparation and are intended to outline modelling methods and techniques applicable to prognostics. C
18、opyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) ISO 2004 All rights reserved
19、 v Introduction The complete process of machine condition monitoring consists of five distinct phases, as follows: detection of problems (deviations from normal conditions); diagnosis of the faults and their causes; prognosis of future fault progression; recommendation of actions; post-mortems. As f
20、ar as the prognosis of machine health is concerned (which demands prophecies of future machine integrity and deterioration), there can be no exactitude in the process requiring statistical or testimonial approaches to be adopted. Standardization in prognosis of machine health therefore embodies guid
21、elines, approaches and concepts rather than procedures or standard methodologies. Prognosis of future fault progressions requires foreknowledge of the probable failure modes, future duties to which the machine will/might be subjected, and a thorough understanding of the relationships between failure
22、 modes and operating conditions. This can demand the collection of previous duty and cumulative duty parameters, along with condition and performance parameters, prior to extrapolations, projections and forecasts. Also, there are a growing number of models for damage initiation and damage progressio
23、n. Prognosis processes need to accommodate these and future analytical damage models. As computing power increases and multiple parameter analysis becomes a reality, the ability to predict the initiation of a failure mode is not inconceivable if the initiation criteria, expressed as a set of paramet
24、er values for a given mode, are known as well as their future behaviour for a given set of conditions. Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction
25、 or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from I
26、HS -,-,- INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13381-1:2004(E) ISO 2004 All rights reserved 1 Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelines 1 Scope This International Standard provides guidance for the development of prognosis processes. It is intended to allow the use
27、rs and manufacturers of condition monitoring and diagnostics systems to share common concepts in the fields of machinery fault prognosis, to enable users to determine the necessary data, characteristics and behaviour necessary for accurate prognosis, to outline an appropriate approach to prognosis d
28、evelopment, and to introduce prognoses concepts in order to facilitate the development of future systems and training. 2 Normative references The following referenced documents are indispensable for the application of this document. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For undated r
29、eferences, the latest edition of the referenced document (including any amendments) applies. ISO 13372, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Vocabulary ISO 17359, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines General guidelines 3 Terms and definitions For the purposes of this document
30、, the terms and definitions given in ISO 13372 and the following apply. 3.1 prognosis estimation of time to failure and risk for one or more existing and future failure modes 3.2 confidence level figure of merit that indicates the degree of certainty that the diagnosis/prognosis is correct NOTE 1 It
31、 is expressed as a percentage. Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004
32、(E) 2 ISO 2004 All rights reserved NOTE 2 This value is essentially a figure representing the cumulative effect of error sources on the final certainty or confidence in the accuracy of the outcome. Such a figure can be determined algorithmically or via a weighted assessment system. 3.3 root cause se
33、t of conditions and/or actions that occur at the beginning of a sequence of events that result in the initiation of a failure mode 3.4 failure modes effects analysis FMEA pre-production design and development process to help determine the ways that a machine could fail, and to assess the associated
34、effects of such failure NOTE The FMEA procedure is outlined in BS 5760-5. 3.5 failure modes effects criticality analysis FMECA process that adds an economic, financial and/or safety component to FMEA to assist in maintenance management decisions NOTE The FMECA procedure is outlined in IEC 60812. 3.6
35、 failure modes symptoms analysis FMSA process based on FMECA that documents the symptoms produced by each mode, and the most effective detection and monitoring techniques, in order to develop and optimize a monitoring programme NOTE This process is outlined in ISO 13379. 3.7 estimated time to failur
36、e ETTF estimation of the period from the current point in time to the point in time when the monitored machine is deemed to be in the failed condition 4 Pre-requisite data required For the general concepts for condition monitoring, see ISO 17359. These form the basis for the prognosis process and it
37、s pre-requisites. Prognosis requires collection of documented data covering the following: a) the total population of plant, machinery and components under observation; b) all monitored parameters and descriptors; c) historical operation data, and maintenance and failure data; d) future operating an
38、d maintenance environments, requirements and schedules; e) initial diagnosis, including identification of all existing failure modes; f) failure modelling processes that can include statistics, existing and future failure mode influence factors, initiation criteria, and failure definition set points
39、 for all parameters, and descriptors; g) curve fitting, projection and superimposition techniques; Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or
40、networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) ISO 2004 All rights reserved 3 h) alarm limits; i) trip (shut-down) limits; j) results of failure investigation; k) reliability, availability, maintainability and safety data; l) damage initiation data; m) damage progression dat
41、a. The specific objectives of the collection of reliability data relating to current condition and field performance of machinery are to provide for a survey of the actual reliability and, hence, to enable the predicted reliability characteristics of an item to be made and compared with field data a
42、nd damage models, and thereby to improve future predictions, and to provide data for improving the reliability of both the current item and future developments. The specific objectives of the collection of data relating to current field duties and cumulative duties of machinery are to provide for a
43、survey of the relationship between the actual reliability and the work done and, hence, to enable a comparison of damage initiation and progression models with field data, to provide data for improving the damage estimation models of both the current item and future developments, and to provide data
44、 for the extension of the range of applications for damage estimation models. The specific objectives of the collection of cost data relating to monitoring equipment and usage, production losses, secondary damage losses, maintenance activities and stores inventories of machinery are to provide for a
45、 survey of the benefit-to-cost ratios of various alternative maintenance actions, to improve future maintenance decisions, to provide data for reducing the operating and maintenance costs of both the current item and future embodiments, and to provide cost data (along with monitored data and perform
46、ance data, and also with field duty data) for the optimal organization and management of any maintenance operation (on-condition maintenance, scheduled preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, service personnel, spare parts stores, etc). 5 Prognosis concepts 5.1 Basic concepts Prognosis is an
47、 estimation of time to failure and risk for one or more existing and future failure modes, and is normally intuitive and based on experience. Prognosis is usually effective for faults and failure modes with known, age-related, or progressive deterioration characteristics, the simplist of which is li
48、near. Prognostics are most difficult for random failure modes. Copyright International Organization for Standardization Provided by IHS under license with ISO Licensee=Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ/9976803100 Not for Resale, 04/17/2007 10:07:50 MDTNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -,-,- ISO 13381-1:2004(E) 4 ISO 2004 All rights reserved A failure is defined in terms of the