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1、 K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Simba Information 60 Long Ridge Road Phone: 203.325.8193 Suite 300 Fax: 203.325.8975 Stamford, CT 06902 Customer Service: 888.29.SIMBA Published by: 2010 Simba Information By Karen Raugust and the editors of Simba Information Simba Information, Education Grou
2、p Kathy Mickey, Senior Analyst/Managing Editor, Educational Marketer Karen Meaney, Analyst/Editor, Electronic Education Report Daniel Granderson, Assistant Editor Valerie Montinat, Production Coordinator Farah Pierre, Production Assistant Simba Information and its agents have used their best efforts
3、 in collecting and preparing the information published in K 12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011. Simba does not assume, and hereby disclaims any liability for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in K 12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011, whether such errors or omissions result from neg
4、ligence, accident or other causes. License Agreement Simba Information offers Single-User, Departmental and Global Licenses for its research reports. A Single-User License for a PDF version of a Simba report allows an individual purchaser to store one copy of a purchased report on one computer or to
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7、e of reports to consultants or customers of the purchasing individual or company. Reproduction of Simba reports by photocopying, scanning or any other means is also strictly prohibited. 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. i Table of Contents Table of Contents _ i
8、Methodology _ v Executive Summary _ 1 Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure _ 5 Introduction _ 5 The Changing Focus of Testing _ 7 Testing Market Size and Segments _ 8 Consolidating Market in High Stakes State Tests _ 9 Classroom Assessment: Low Stakes but Vital Role_ 10 Acceptance of Common Core S
9、tate Standards Alters Landscape _ 11 Consortia Race to Define Testing Future _ 13 Integrating Through Common Core Assessments_ 15 Case Study: Delaware Tries Assessment Linkage _ 16 Ramifications of Common Testing Proliferate _ 17 Cost DecreaseMaybe; Competition IncreasesProbably _ 18 Federal Policy
10、Sets the Stage _ 19 Monitoring Progress is Key to National Ed Tech Proposal _ 19 Federal Funding Powers Change _ 20 Table 1.1: PreK-12 Testing Terminology_ 6 K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Table of Contents 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. ii Table 1.2:
11、 Testing Segment Market Share of Instructional Media in U.S. Classrooms, 2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010 _ 8 Table 1.3: Race to the Top Assessment Grant Participants_ 14 Chapter 2: Trends to Watch _ 23 Introduction _ 23 2010 Begins a Time of Transition _ 23 Potential Changes to Industry Structure _ 25 The C
12、hanging Customer _ 27 Integration of Assessment and Instruction _ 29 Forming Partnerships and Alliances for Solutions _ 30 Room for Continued Customization _ 31 Open Source Will Impact Delivery_ 32 Chapter 3: The Move Online _ 35 Introduction _ 35 Race to the Top Leads Drivers of Move Online _ 38 On
13、line Accounts for One-Fifth of Testing_ 40 States Commitments to Online Varies _ 40 Bumps in the Digital Highway in Florida _ 41 Oregon Takes Second Stab at Moving Online _ 42 Online Formative Assessment Movement Projected to Accelerate _ 43 Table 3.1: Inroads of Computer-Based Assessments in States
14、, 2009 _ 36 Table 3.2: Estimated K-12 Online Assessment Market, 2009-2010 _ 39 Chapter 4: Conclusions formative assessment at the district, school and classroom levels, and the growing field of online testing. Simbas research for the report included interviews with publishing, testing and technology
15、 industry executives, consultants and non-profit groups, and state education officials who deal with educational testing issues at the local, state and federal levels. The results of these interviews and Simbas own research were compiled and used to estimate market size and forecast industry sales g
16、rowth, as well as to define industry segments and analyze trends in academic testing. In defining the size of the testing industry, Simba limited its scope to materials whose primary purpose is to measure student achievement rather than to instruct. Most of the information in this report came from e
17、xclusive Simba Information research. Some data was supplied by respected third-party organizations including the U.S. Department of Education, the Council of Chief State School Officers, the National Governors Association, the Partnership for the Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers, the
18、SMARTER Balanced Assessment Consortium and Education Weeks Editorial Projects in Education. K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Methodology 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. vi This page intentionally left blank 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-81
19、93 . Copying Prohibited. 1 Executive Summary In K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011, Simba Information examines the academic testing market in schools with an emphasis on the trends that are changing the dynamics in the school market and within the educational publishing industry that provides th
20、e test development, administration, scoring and reporting of tests. Testing Market Valued at $2.76 billion in 2009-2010 Simba Information estimates the size of the total testing marketincluding both high-stakes state level summative exams and lower stakes instruction-related classroom assessmentsin
21、the 2009-2010 school year reached $2.76 billion, up 3.1% from the previous year. High-Stakes State Test Segment Levels Off Growth for the high-stakes segment of the market has flattened out over the last several years, showing growth of 2% to $1.27 billion in 2009-2010 compared to 2008-2009, accordi
22、ng to Simba Information estimates. K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Executive Summary 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 2 Classroom-Level Assessments: Low Stakes but Vital Role Classroom assessments encompass a variety of test typesincluding formative asse
23、ssment, benchmark tests and assessment-related test-prep programsthat are becoming a key strategic ingredient for a wide range of publishers who develop textbooks and supplementary programs as schools adopt a continuous assess- instruct-assess-adapt instructional cycle. The segmentestimated at $1.49
24、 billion in 2009-2010, according to Simba Informationhas grown more rapidly than the state level tests. Race to the Top Assessment Consortia Drive Testing Changes With the Common Core State Standards movement, the biggest current factor affecting the development of assessments, primarily on the stat
25、ewide side but also for classroom tests, is the federal Race to the Top Assessment Grant program. Two consortia of states were awarded a total of $330 million for development of new testing programs. All but six states are part of one or both of the consortia; 12 out of the 44 states who are partici
26、pating are part of both efforts Testing Changes Pose Questions for Industry and Schools The emerging link between formative, through-course and interim summative exams that is called for in both consortia plans will have a significant impact on the school market and the industry, including increased
27、 state involvement in the purchase of classroom-level assessments, and perhaps, consolidation of the various types of tests and assessments in hands of fewer vendors. The industry is just starting to think about how the link between formative and summative will work. Moreover, with the Race to the T
28、op assessment grants dedicated only to the development of the tests, several questions arise. Who will administer the tests? Who will pay for them? Who will refresh them annually? Tests Move Online Slowly Moving both classroom and statewide high-stakes testing online has been a goal for more than a
29、decade, but progress has been much slower than many observers had predicted. A number of challenges remain in the transition to online testing, but K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Executive Summary 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 3 online delivery appea
30、rs inevitable. In 2009, 26 states offered computer-based administration of at least some tests, up from 22 states in 2005-2006, according to Education Weeks Editorial Projects in Education. Online Accounts for One-Fifth of Testing Simba Information estimates that online testinghigh-stakes state-leve
31、l testing and classroom testing combinedgenerated $563 million in sales in the 2009-2010 school year, accounting for 20.4% of the testing segment. Online Formative Assessment Movement Projected to Accelerate The movement to online is expected to materialize more quickly in formative assessments than
32、 in the state-level tests, even though, state-level tests currently are generating significantly more revenue. One of the primary reasons for this expectation is time. As schools embrace formative assessment as integral to the instructional cycle, teachers and administrators recognize that immediate
33、 feedback is critical to the concept of formative assessment. Online testing is the best way to achieve this. Online Formative Assessment Movement Projected to Accelerate Simba Information expects the total assessment market to grow at moderate annual growth rates of between 2% and 5% over the next
34、five years, with total revenue reaching a projected $3.15 billion in 2013-2014. While federal and state policies are driving an increase in the need and desire for tests, the state of funding during this current economy will have a significant dampening effect on growth, at least in the short term.
35、K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Executive Summary 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 4 This page intentionally left blank 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 5 Chapter 1 Industry Size and Structure Introduction The K-12
36、assessment market is undergoing a significant transformation. Despite extremely tight budgets at both the state and district levels, state and federal policy, and some federal funding are helping to drive the assessment market forward. The Common Core State Standards in English and mathematics estab
37、lished in February 2010 by the National Governors Association and the Council of Chief State School Officers, for example, which have been adopted by 35 states as of September 2010, will require new high-stakes tests as well as classroom assessments. Two consortia funded by federal Race to the Top a
38、ssessment grants are working toward this goal on the high- stakes side, and they promise to change the nature of statewide summative assessments. The intention is that the new tests will be online, feature more complex item types and performance tests (such as essays), be linked to formative and ben
39、chmark assessments, and measure individual growth. Meanwhile, classroom assessments, particularly formative assessments, have commanded an increasingly higher profile. First of all, they are an essential means of providing the data needed for data-driven decision-making, where continuous assessment
40、with immediate results informs instruction. They also provide some data used for monitoring progress and improving the lowest-performing schools. K-12 Testing Market Forecast 2010-2011 Size and Structure 2010 Simba Information, Stamford, CT 203-325-8193 . Copying Prohibited. 6 Table 1.1: PreK-12 Tes
41、ting Terminology Some of the specific types of tests in the PreK-12 education marketthey overlap to some extentinclude: Summative assessments - Concluding exams that measure students proficiency in a particular subject or group of subjects, or proficiency against state standards; look at performance
42、 on an aggregate level. Formative assessments - Ongoing, classroom testing that occurs throughout the year and monitors progress in certain subjects or curriculum units on an individual level. Results can be used to effect change in instruction and to address individual student needs. High-stakes as
43、sessments - Tests that result in an important outcome for a school, district or state, or for an individual student. Examples: NCLB-mandates exams, graduation exams. Benchmark or diagnostic assessments - Tests given at intervals and aligned to state standards. They often have similar items as on hig
44、h-stakes tests. Intended to measure progress at a point along the path toward summative exams, they offer a snapshot of student performance at a given moment. Standardized tests - Administered and scored in a predetermined manner, so results can be compared across schools, districts or states. Customized assessments - Created for a particular state or district, ba