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1、铁矿石中国话语权能否迎来转机(瞭望新闻周刊)（Iron ore will Chinas discourse power usher in a turning point (Newsweek)）Iron ore: Chinas right to speak can usher in a turnaround?Source: lookout news weekly, 2011, 05, 08, 12:49In the iron ore issue, we should not only look at the issue in terms of politics and national sent
2、iment, but also must respect the laws of the market and adapt to the marketText / lookout Newsweek reporter Huang Ping LiChina is the worlds largest producer and consumer of steel. It is also the largest importer of iron ore. However, since joining the international iron ore negotiations in 2003, th
3、e biggest buyer has been losing voice in resource pricing issues.In 2010, China negotiated with the worlds three largest miners, BHP Billiton, Brazil vale and Rio Tinto, and forced the Chinese to default on the quarterly pricing requirements of the three major miners. This year, the price of importe
4、d iron ore continued to rise all the way, rising from about 90 US dollars per ton at the beginning to more than US $140 per ton at the end of the year.China Steel Industry Association in April 29th announced the industry information show that in the first quarter of this year, imports of iron ore 17
5、7 million 170 thousand tons, import CIF average $156.62 / ton, up 60.31 U.S. dollars / ton, or 62.62%.Under the pressure of rising costs, in the first quarter of the 77 large and medium-sized enterprises in the Association statistics, the product sales margin was only 2.91%, 3.29 percentage points l
6、ower than the average sales margin of 6.2% of the national industrial sector. The profits of any of the three miners exceeded the sum of the profits of Chinas steel industry.According to Platts iron ore index data, the two quarter of this year, Australian iron ore price agreement (Offshore) will als
7、o rose 25.1%, 62% grade Pilbara ore powder will rise to $171.35 / ton dry; 58% Yang Difen mine will rise to $160.30 / ton; Brazil ore price (CIF) chain will rose 16%, grade 66% of Brazil Carajas mine will rise to $200 / tons of historic highs, up 16.4%, tubarao block ore grade 65% will rise to $194.
8、93 / ton.Iron ore prices high fever, as if a Curse, it is difficult to bear the iron ore cost of the Chinese steel industry can and how to get the transfer?Chinese demandFrom the historical data, in mid 70s to the beginning of this century 20 years, iron ore prices remain at $more than 20 / ton leve
9、l, if taking into account the depreciation of the dollar, the actual iron ore is devalued.But since 2000, Chinas demand has gradually increased. In 2000, China imported 70 million tons of iron ore, more than 6 tons in 2010, and increased by 8.6 times in 10 years.Analysis pointed out that the Xinhua
10、news agency, chief economic analyst Lu Xiaoming in an interview with NEWSWEEK, Outlook, China strong demand for iron ore, iron ore production speed is lower than the growth rate of demand and supply become a big trend. Wait until the miners see this is a long-term trend, they have begun to gradually
11、 expand production, while iron ore prices are gradually higher, Lu Xiaoming described mining business is 30 years, the wife boil.Before 2003, the average price of Chinas imports of iron ore remained at about 30 U. S. dollars / ton. Since then, with the rapid growth of demand, prices have also risen
12、rapidly, Chinas imports of iron ore CIF at least 5 times higher. Chinese demand has become the soft underbelly of Chinas steel enterprises.The increase in demand for iron ore has led to a substantial increase in seaborne exports of iron ore, thus increasing the cost of shipping. Lu Xiaoming pointed
13、out that in recent years, sea freight charges rose and fluctuated greatly, increasing the variables.Since 2002, almost 100% of the global iron ore increments have come from China, and the demand for iron ore outside China has not changed much. The price increases are mainly from Chinas demand. In th
14、e future, the international iron ore supply and demand situation can change, so that iron ore prices can be more conducive to Chinas direction reversal?Forecasts from three major miners and some industry analysts believe Chinas demand will remain strong over the next few years. They pointed out, suc
15、h as Shanghai, Tianjin and Beijings export-oriented city, steel production has reached a high level in developed countries such as South Korea, but the amount of steel used in inland provinces has just begun to rise, the western region city and industrialization will require a lot of steel, and the
16、Chinese iron ore imports remain high.But the domestic experts have pointed out that the global iron ore demand pattern has gradually entered the end, China iron ore imports in the next 5 to 10 years may be the turning point, because the era of iron and steel industry, Chinese supernormal growth will
17、 end; second, with the use of scrap and other technology development, Chinese dependence on iron ore the future will be eased; thirdly, a lot of money into the iron ore mining areas, the supply will increase.Lu Xiaoming believes that such a judgment is the outcome of the Chinese enterprises to enjoy
18、, but from a realistic point of view, I am afraid not so optimistic.First of all, Chinese is still in the development stage of industrialization and urbanization, the demand is difficult to decline, overcapacity contradictions are still prominent; second, like the United States and other developed c
19、ountries, steel scrap is the main raw material for steelmaking, EAF steel production accounted for the proportion of total steel production capacity of up to 60%. But because of the low level of China city and steelmaking equipment in blast furnace, electric arc furnace steel production accounted fo
20、r the total steel production ratio less than 15%, the amount of scrap savings is less China, so the iron ore or China iron and steel enterprises the main steelmaking raw materials; thirdly, Chinese into overseas iron ore mining enterprises in the field, not yet there is a real production; in additio
21、n, with Indias rising demand in China, India mine supply and the compensation ability is also weakened.Chinese metallurgical mines Association consultant Jiao Yushu also pointed out that the Chinese steel industry, overseas mining rights should reach 3 tons, the domestic mining and mining rights acc
22、ounted for the total consumption of 70% to have the right to speak, but China is currently in the construction of overseas mining rights is only about 1.9 tons of production capacity, there is still a long way to to achieve these goals.pricing mechanismIn 2010, a major change occurred in the pricing
23、 mechanism of iron ore, and the three major miners began to adopt short-term price contracts linked to the spot market, replacing the 40 year benchmark pricing system. Although the Chinese side has not publicly accepted this mechanism, but in fact, Chinas major steel enterprises since the middle of
24、last year, with the three major miners signed a short-term supply agreement.Lu Xiaoming commented that the pricing mechanism is the most worthy of discussion. He said that the new pricing mechanism has several major changes, is a period of change, mainly in the quarterly pricing, there are monthly p
25、ricing or shorter period; the two is the past price negotiation is out now, do not talk, and according to the market index, this pricing model is the trend.The internationally accepted iron ore indexes are TSI index of global steel news, MBIO index of metal Herald and Platts index of Platts energy i
26、nformation. Among them, Platts corresponds to the highest quoted price in the three indices, due to Plattss settlement formula, which gives the highest share of the quoted price of the mine. As a result, vale and Rio Tinto used quarterly pricing based on the Platts index, while BHP took a more flexi
27、ble pricing approach based on the Platts index.The pricing of international bulk primary commodities has basically gone through the process of long-term agreement price - spot pricing - futures pricing, and futures have become the major pricing methods, and the pricing of commodities has also comple
28、ted the process of financial. Experts interviewed pointed out that in the new iron ore pricing mechanism has become an established fact, iron ore pricing financial inevitable.In this trend, can the domestic steel industry actively adapt to and participate in and make a difference, so as to avoid get
29、ting into a more unfavorable situation? In the interview, Lu Xiaoming told the reporter stressed that should realize that not only has the mineral resource property, and capital and asset attributes, and the attribute of capital is more and more strong, support resources not only from the amount of
30、pursuit, should also actively through the operation of capital market.He believes that, in the iron ore issue, not only from the political point of view and national sentiment on the issue, but also must respect the laws of the market, adapt to the market.Industry experts also pointed out that China
31、s iron and steel industry in the pricing of iron ore financial needs to actively adapt to and make a difference, there are three feasible path: first, actively promote the development of iron ore futures trading in the country. China is the worlds largest buyer of iron ore, and if the iron ore futur
32、es market is well developed, it can affect the international price of iron ore. In January this year, the worlds third largest iron ore supplier in India launched the first iron ore futures in the world, means the iron ore pricing and further financial short-term momentum is irresistible, iron ore f
33、utures and options will be part of the iron and steel enterprises or domestic ore traders have to operate, China iron and steel enterprises must actively to adapt to this trend.Two is to promote iron ore as soon as possible, with the domestic steel futures pricing standards. The degree of dependence
34、 on foreign Chinese copper concentrate and iron ore, but did not appear heteronomy pricing embarrassing situation, the main reason is that the price of copper concentrate directly affected the copper futures price. The pricing of iron ore can be priced in the light of this model.The three is to enco
35、urage the development of professional steel information organizations, to help them prepare to better reflect the Chinese iron ore supply and demand situation and accepted by the parties of the iron ore price index, the price right to acquire the international raw material market.Resultant transform
36、ationIn the interview, expert Wei Liang China Economic Institute of contemporary international relations, said, as the main demand side, should have the right to speak on pricing and bargaining advantage , but not so China discourse.The crux of the defeat lies in,First, Chinas iron ore import struct
37、ure and pricing negotiation strategy is not uniform; two is a strong monopoly position in the international market; three, the domestic steel prices can not form a joint force because of their respective interests.The director of the Institute of France Xirui commodities research Philip PR Schulman
38、also pointed out that in February this year the first version of Chinese Xirui commodity market yearbook PR conference, China iron and steel enterprises in great demand, the global iron ore demand accounted for more than 60%, but most of these companies individual combat, can not form a cohesive for
39、ce against the three major iron ore manufacturers, so the pricing power in the hands of the miners.In view of the economy and the total population Chinese, Chinese demand will not change much, therefore, Wei Liang believes that the steel industry to obtain China transfer in high cost burden, but als
40、o depends on the basic economic structure, industrial structure adjustment and transformation of development mode.Lu Xiaoming pointed out that if the Chinese transformation is good, not simply the pursuit of economic growth, the demand for iron ore is really down, there may be supply balance, even f
41、or seeking too little, then the price will turn down.Structural adjustment and change the mode of development has also become the consensus of the steel industry. The Ministry announced in February the operation and in 2011 2010 the steel industry outlook pointed out that this year is Chinese 12th F
42、ive-Year start of the year, the stage of rapid development of iron and steel industry Chinese is nearing completion, transfer mode, adjust the structure of iron and steel industry development the only way which must be passed next step.CISA also pointed out that the development of iron and steel ind
43、ustry Chinese 12th Five-Year period from scale expansion to quality and efficiency of varieties, the main changes to the operation situation of the whole industry will be the extension and expansion of changes to improve the quality and efficiency of operation, the center of the work should be trans
44、ferred to the whole industry structure upgrading and transformation of development mode.China Steel Association believes that the key to achieving the transformation is to continuously improve technological innovation and management innovation capabilities, and constantly enhance the construction of
45、 upstream and downstream industry chain.As a matter of fact, China is a big steel country, but it has never been a steel power. This print of Wei Liang pointed out that after the earthquake in Japan, need a large number of steel products, but Chinese production of steel quality and quality can not b
46、e added because the Japanese market, mainly in the China steel enterprises in rough machining stage, multi refining of crude steel, to supplement the international market demand for high-end. At the same time, China has to import iron ore at a high price and sell it at a simple price after simple pr
47、ocessing, which naturally leads to a low profit margin.He believes that the transformation of the mode of economic growth in the future Chinese will also require the deep processing, China steel enterprises must be based on quality instead of quantity, by the amount of deterioration, need to improve technical content, grasp and use more sophisticated technology. .