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1、未来世界格局将走向无极化（The future world pattern will be no polarization）The future world pattern will be no polarizationIt should be sent to Pantheon in eighteenth Century.The French Revolution famous politician sanjust (Saint-Just) once wrote that. Sanjust live only a short 28 years old, he did not see the c
2、hanges after 19, occurred on twentieth Century, but it is impossible to anticipate what happened in twenty-first Century 10 year change head.What has happened to the world in the first 10 years of the past twenty-first Century? The vocabulary is often more than the loud testimony in the history of t
3、he British historian Eric Hobsbawm in accordance with the reduction method, we can write down the words: Hurricane and bubble unilateralism, terrorism and financial leverage rupture, economic recession and debt crisis, globalization and the Middle East situation, backward, rising of BRICs the world,
4、 the transfer of power, from the sovereign state to private and social media against the ecological crisis, the polarization of wealth and the middle class, and aggravated the environmental movement as one falls, another rises the end of history , as well as the fashion and self correction, the conc
5、ept of soft power after the smart power concept highlights. It can be said that the face of the world showing a hitherto unknown change constantly like cloud and wave.Marked by the replacement of the leaders of major world powers, the world stood on a new starting point in 2013. What will the world
6、and China look like in the next 10 years? We believe that, listen to the history sound pulse trend, helps us to create a new season, for. To this end, this newspaper launched the Chinese from this period and the world series of interviews in the next 10 years, invite domestic and foreign well-known
7、scholars to discuss the future of 10 years of power game and global governance, the world economy, Chinese culture and world ecological development and other topics. This period Wenhui scholar interview vice president, director of the Institute of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences History Research
8、 researcher Huang Renwei interview is opening.Huang Renwei was one of the main participants in the important issue of Chinas peaceful rise. As early as 2002, he published a monograph entitled time and space for the rise of China. Looking forward to the future, Huang Renwei believes that in the next
9、10 years, China will need a process of adaptation and capacity development, and the outside world needs a process of adapting to China and psychological adjustment. Over the past 10 years, China and the international community have come to a more stable view of their own responsibilities, rights and
10、 interests in global governance.Multipolarization is an important trend in the development of the world today. Huang Renwei believes that the future of the world is the emergence of a group of more than the polarization of the pole, will be no polarization. There is a large, medium and small power s
11、tructure in different regions, and different regions are combined into large, medium and small structures around the world. The world rely on such a structure is a step toward a harmonious stable until.Huang Renwei has served as the research center of the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office of Shang
12、hai municipal government, distinguished fellow experts, consultation and deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of international relations of the American Economic Association executive director, executive director of the Institute of the history of the United States and other duties, the author
13、of the American west land system evolution independent foreign policy of peace, co-author of China international status report state sovereignty theory.We may overestimate the negative consequences of Americas strategic rebalancingWen Wei Po: over the next 10 years, will the process of the rise of t
14、he west be truly reversed since the industrial revolution?Huang Renwei: for 10 years, we still can not draw the conclusion of this question. Because the West has been on the stage of the world for three hundred or four hundred years, the real rapid growth of emerging countries is still nearly 20 yea
15、rs. As far as economic aggregate is concerned, the proportion of emerging countries in the world economy is less than 20%, and about 65% in the western countries. Even half and half cant do it in 10 years. Most important of all, for emerging countries, the rules of the international system and the p
16、ower and the right to speak out the rules, that is, the rise of the so-called soft power,Longer than the economys total catch. But Western influence is on the decline, and non Western influence is on the rise, which is an irreversible direction. This trend can be seen in several ways.First of all, t
17、he Western wealth has a negative growth trend, and its own creation of wealth is not enough to support its own consumption, the emergence of a worldwide debt crisis in developed countries. The European Unions debt is equal to 95% of its GDP, the US debt is 100% of its GDP, and Japans debt is 200% of
18、 its GDP. In the medium and long term, the positive forecast is that the debt growth is slowing down, and the bad result is that the debt growth is much faster than the growth of the total amount of the economy.Second, there is likely to be a zero growth of the western economy. Whether it is the rea
19、l economy or the virtual economy, its growth is lack of motivation. To some extent, this is the globalization of the western economy. In the past 20 years, Japans economy has been characterized by two zero: zero interest rates and zero growth. If the western economy presents two features in the next
20、 5 to 10 years, the Japanese disease after the bursting of the bubble will spread throughout the west.Third, if the first two problems can not be improved, then the whole western social security system is bound to go wrong. The three guarantees of pension insurance, medical insurance and unemploymen
21、t insurance are the basic conditions for the stability of Western society after World War ii.In my opinion, the three problems will be more serious in the next 5 to 10 years.Wen Wei Po: will the US hegemony end in the next 10 years? The conservative powers and emerging powers can contribute to a new
22、 powers?Huang Renwei: new great power relationship was put forward by china. Synonymous with so-called big power is the hegemony, mastery of world domination power is hegemony.Historically, there are only two countries that can maintain and maintain world hegemony in the capitalist market: Britain a
23、nd the United states. The forms and contents of the two hegemony are different. The core of British hegemony is its global colonial system. There are two cores of American hegemony, one is military hegemony composed of Allied military base system, the other is world currency system with the dollar a
24、s the core. Moreover, military hegemony is supported by the hegemony of the dollar.British hegemony began to decline in the first World War, and ended in the 50s of the last century. The reason lies in the rise of the world liberation movement after World War II, which led to the collapse of the Bri
25、tish colonial system and the end of British hegemony.Similarly, the American hegemony depends on whether its allies and the dollar system can be maintained. George W. Bushs unilateralism has shaken American allies. Now, the United States implements soft power and smart power, and unilateralism has l
26、ittle convergence, and the allied system is also slightly stable. If the United States insists on military unilateralism, its allies will gradually move away from it; if the United States abuses its credit, unlimited quantitative easing will destabilize the dollar system. Obviously, the biggest fact
27、or of shaking American hegemony is the policy of the United States itself.Germany and Japan have challenged Britain, and the Soviet Union has challenged the United States without success. Britain, or the United States, is the cause of the rise and fall of its hegemony. If this logic holds, can expla
28、in the relationship between the so-called conservative countries and change state. The main task of the so-called emerging countries is not to challenge the United States. Their main strength is not to change the status quo, but to adapt to the international system, and to amend the international sy
29、stem in the process. Whether the system will produce a real mutation depends on the dominant player in the system. When it can not be maintained, the system naturally changes. The United States is worried about Chinas challenge and replaces it, which is not the core of the problem. The real worry is
30、 how America avoids historical mistakes. There are two so-called historical errors, is a mistake makers are unaware of their own cause, once realized that as irreversible, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the British colonial system collapse;Two, the person who makes mistakes is often so powe
31、rful that there is no power to stop it.Wen Wei Po: in the next 10 years, how much will the strategic rebalancing of the United States change the global strategy?Huang Renwei: some time ago, we overestimated the negative consequences of strategic rebalancing or return to Asia. In my opinion, the reba
32、lancing strategy of the United States return to Asia is a strategy of going forward and retreating. It is also an economic strategy with military as a coat, or market strategy under the cloak of security. These two are ignored by many people.First of all, it is the global balance of American militar
33、y forces to pull out of the Middle East and get rid of the burden of two wars in Iraq and afghanistan. This has brought about an upward balance of power against China in asia. Thus, this is not the first step against Chinas balance, but the need to pull out of the middle east. Second, in the whole w
34、estern Pacific, the United States pushed Asian countries to the front line and retreated to the second line, increasing the frictions within the Asian countries on the front line. Third, when Asian countries have increased their internal friction on the first line, their security needs have risen, a
35、nd they have become more dependent on American protection. The United States has access to the forefront of Asia at any time. Fourth, when Asian countries are tied to the American defense system, the United States will tie the markets of Asian countries to the economic interests of the United states
36、. The TPP, which the United States dished out, requires Asian countries to be fully open to trade in services, but the United States has imposed barriers to Asian countries on commodity trade. This is obviously American unilateralism in regional integration. If we simply look at it from the surface,
37、 it is easy to regard the rebalancing strategy of the United States as a new cold war strategy, and from the above several points of view, it is more comprehensive.Now the rebalancing strategy in the United States has also had a negative effect. First, the Middle East countries have not solved the p
38、roblem, the United States can not retreat all over. Israel and the European Union are reluctant to move all of America to East asia. Two, when the conflict between the first Asian countries is fierce, the United States can not really protect these Asian companions. If it is involved in all conflicts
39、 in the Western Pacific, it also violates the strategic interests of the United states. Three, TPP has encountered obstacles, including Japan, South Korea, including the Asian countries to join, there are great concerns. Obama said, TPP in a year. Now, two or three years have passed, and the more we
40、 go, the more we cant do it. Therefore, the United States strategy to return to Asia has encountered a bottleneck. Now, even within the United States, a lot of insight in the American strategic community has criticized Hilary for turning the United States back into asia. I believe in Obamas new term
41、, he will rethink this question.Wen Wei Po: what are the prospects for the EU integration process in the next 10 years?Huang Renwei: This is a directional problem in the future of the political economy of the world. First of all, the European Union was a typical model of regional integration. If thi
42、s model is successful, the shape of the country may change very much in the future. But the structural flaws in the European Union have been fully exposed since the global financial crisis. The interests of sovereign states have begun to exceed the common interests of the European Union to some exte
43、nt. Part of the debt state and some creditor countries in the interests of the crack is very large, the EUs prospects have emerged in a very worrying state.The EU cannot afford to return to sovereign states. If we turn back, it will not be the collapse of the European Union, but the collapse of the
44、world economy. If the EU continues to move forward, several major changes will have to take place. First, countries should really pay their financial bills and establish the central finance of the European union. The two is that Germany plays a leading role in the European union. Whether Germanys Eu
45、rope or Europes Germany will become clearer. Three is the British withdrawal from the European union. As long as Britain stays in the European Union, the EU can not truly integrate. The pound is not the euro, and its interests do not really blend with the European union. Britain can not give up the
46、pound. It was a legacy of wealth that the colonial system left behind,The British Empire concentrated the colonys wealth in London by the pound. Thats the real reason Britain wont put pounds into euros. Therefore, the United Kingdom and the European Union can not really combine into one. If these th
47、ree can be achieved, the European Union can break through the difficult position, become a higher level of financial integration of the European Union, diplomatic and military integration will follow.The role of non state actors in the global governance system is on the riseWen Wei Po: in the next 1
48、0 years, will terrorism be reduced as a counter global governance force?Huang Renwei: the root of terrorism is in the Middle East, and the root causes of instability in the Middle East are palestine. So, the central problem of the Middle East, the Palestinian issue if not a reasonable solution, the
49、Middle East will not eliminate international terrorism. Conditions for the formation of an international terrorist organization as large as Ben Laden are now weakening. Ben Ladens power was bigger than when American troops supported him in Afghanistan against the Soviet union. At the same time, we should also see that Taliban has not been wiped out in Afghanistan