《国才PPT文档资料.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国才PPT文档资料.ppt（25页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT,EUN / RESNICK,Fourth Edition,Chapter Three Outline,Balance of Payments Accounting Balance of Payments Accounts The Current Account (经常账户） The Capital Account （资本账户） Statistical Discrepancy （统计误差） Official Reserves Account （官方储备账户） The Balance of Payments Identity （
2、国际收支恒等式） Balance of Payments Trends in Major Countries,Balance of Payments Accounting,The Balance of Payments is the statistical record of a countrys international transactions over a certain period of time presented in the form of double-entry bookkeeping（复式记账）. N.B.（注意，nota bene，Latin：note well ）w
3、hen we say “a countrys balance of payments” we are referring to the transactions of its citizens and government.,Balance of Payments Example,Suppose that Maplewood Bicycle in Maplewood, Missouri, USA imports $100,000 worth of bicycle frames from Mercian Bicycles in Darby England. There will exist a
4、$100,000 credit（记入贷方） recorded by Mercian at Mercians bank account that offsets （抵消、补偿）a $100,000 debit debt （记入借方） at Maplewoods bank account. This will lead to a rise in the demand for British pounds.,The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of
5、a country and residents of all foreign nations. They are composed of the following: The Current Account（经常账户） The Capital Account（资本账户） The Official Reserves Account（官方储备账户） Statistical Discrepancy diskrepnsi（统计误差）,Balance of Payments Accounts,The Current Account,Includes all imports and exports of
6、goods，services and factor income. Includes unilateral junlat()r()l transfers of foreign aid. If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit defst （贸易赤字）. If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a trade surplus（贸易盈余）.,经常账户下设四个细目：商品贸易、服务、生产要素收入、单方面转移。 商
7、品贸易（merchandise m:tndaiz trade）代表有形商品的进出口。 服务（services，invisible trade），包括专利和知识产权、保险、法律服务、咨询服务、工程维护、运输、旅行等方面的收入与支出。 生产要素收入（factor income），包括利息、股利、国外投资利得方面的收入与支出。 单方面转移（unilateral transfer），即无偿支付，如国外援助、赔款、官方和私人赠与及礼物等。为遵循复式记账法，单方面转移可看做是从接受者那里购买商誉的行为，一国向另一国提供援助可看做是从该国进口商誉。 J曲线效应，国财5版中译版page51,The Capit
8、al Account,The capital account measures the difference between U.S. sales of assets to foreigners and U.S. purchases of foreign assets. In 2006, the U.S. enjoyed a $826.9 billion capital account, this “finances” leads to trade surplus. The capital account is composed of Foreign Direct Investment (FD
9、I), portfolio investments and other investments.,资本账户下设三个细目：直接投资、证券投资、其他投资。 直接投资（foreign direct investment，FDI）是指投资者为获得国外公司一部分控制权而进行的投资。 证券投资（portfolio investment），主要指不涉及控制权转让的股票和债券等国外金融资产的买卖。证券投资包括权益性证券投资和债务性证券投资。权益性证券包括股票，债务性证券包括：1、债券和期票（期票，在我国就是指商业汇票，商业汇票是出票人签发的，委托付款人在指定日期无条件支付确定的金额给收款人或者持票人的票据。)
10、 ；2、货币市场工具；3、期权等金融衍生工具。 其他投资，包括贸易信贷、货币、银行存款等方面的交易。这些投资对国家间相对利率的变化和汇率的预期变化很敏感。利率和预期汇率都很容易变动，这些资本的流向也很容易逆转。,Statistical Discrepancy,Theres going to be some omissions (遗漏） and misrecorded transactions（记错的交易）so we use a “plug” figure to get things to balance. Exhibit 3.1 shows a discrepancy of $18.0 bil
11、lion in 2006. 国财5版中译版page50 国际收支账户中经常账户、资本账户及统计误差的累计值称为总余额（overall balance）或官方结算余额（official settlement balance）。总余额反映了一国的国际收支缺口，该缺口必须通过官方储备来进行调节。总余额也是一个国家货币面临贬值或升值压力的指标，如果一国持续出现总余额赤字，该国最终会耗尽它的国际储备而且该国货币可能不得不进行贬值。,The Official Reserves Account,Official reserves assets include gold, foreign currencies
12、, SDRs, reserve positions in the IMF（在IMF的储备头寸）. 2007年，IMF成员国所持有的官方储备资产中外汇储备占了96%，黄金份额不到2%，特别提款权和储备头寸和黄金一样都在稳步减少。 2009年，IMF成员国所持有的官方储备资产中外汇储备占了94%，黄金份额不到2%，储备头寸和黄金一样都在稳步减少,但特别提款权上升到约百分之4%。 2006年，世界外汇储备中美元64.7%、欧元25.8%、英镑4.4%、日元3.2%、瑞士法郎0.2%、其他货币1.7%。 2009年，世界外汇储备中美元62.1%、欧元27.4%、英镑4.3%、日元3%、瑞士法郎0.1%
13、、其他货币3.1%。 随着欧元对外价值更加稳定，美元的支配地位发生下降。欧元所占份额从1999年的13.5%上升到了2009年的27.4%，除了欧元是一种可靠的储备货币外，美国持续的贸易赤字以及外国投资者对所持有货币分散化要求进一步削弱了美元在储备货币中的主宰地位。,The Balance of Payments Identity,在国际收支账户记录正确时即不存在统计误差，下式正确： BCA + BKA + BRA = 0， where BCA = balance on current account BKA = balance on capital account BRA = balance
14、 on the reserves account Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, BCA + BKA = 0， 即政府不需要动用官方储备去干预汇率，汇率由市场确定。,U.S. Balance of Payments Data,In 2006, the U.S. imported more than it exported, thus running a current account deficit of $811.3 billion.,($18.0),($2.4),$2.4,U.S. Balance of Payments Data,D
15、uring the same year, the U.S. attracted net investment of $826.9 billionclearly the rest of the world found the U.S. to be a good place to invest.,($18.0),($2.4),$2.4,U.S. Balance of Payments Data,Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, these numbers would balance each other out（彼此达到平衡）.,($18.0)
16、,($2.4),$2.4,U.S. Balance of Payments Data,In the real world, there is a statistical discrepancy.,$2.4,U.S. Balance of Payments Data,Including that, the balance of payments identity should hold: BCA + BKA = BRA,($811.3) + $826.9 + ($18.0) = ($2.4),$2.4,Balance of Payments Trends,Since 1982 the U.S.
17、has experienced continuous deficits on the current account and continuous surpluses on the capital account. During the same period, Japan has experienced the opposite.,Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of the United States,Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearboo
18、k, various issues,Balances on the Current (BCA) and Capital (BKA) Accounts of China and Japan,Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues,上页图说明中国的外汇储备运用还不够成熟，而大多数外汇储备都用来购买美国国债，随着美元的持续贬值，所购买的美元资产价值在严重缩水。,2013年7月 美国国债主要持有国持有数量,Balance of Payments Trends,Germany traditionall
19、y had current account surpluses. From 1991 to 2001Germany experienced current account deficits. This was largely due to German reunification and the resultant need to absorb more output domestically to rebuild the former East Germany. Since 2001 Germany returned to its earlier pattern. What matters is the nature and causes of the disequilibrium.,一国因进口经济发展项目所需的资本货物而造成的贸易赤字，这种贸易赤字在长期内会自动地得到调整，因为一旦经济发展项目完成后，该国就能增加出口或者通过国内产品替代外国进口产品来减少进口。 如果贸易赤字是因进口消费品而引起的，这种赤字不会得到自动调整。 国际财务实践 美元与赤字 国财5版中译版page58-59,End Chapter Three,