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1、 The mechanism of RMB exchange rate and level Summary: Problem of RMB exchange rate involves the standard of the mechanism of exchange rate and exchange rate. The formulation that holds to the exchange rate mechanism that is a foundation with market supply and demand is not precise. At present RMB t
2、he fixed exchange rate to the dollar is a kind of exchange rate policy that is helpful for economic growth. RMB exchange rate is in without underestimated conclusion learned and political it is correct. Keyword: RMB exchange rate A of current China monetary policy important facet is policy of RMB ex
3、change rate. Discuss issue of RMB exchange rate now, involved two levels actually, namely the level of the mechanism of exchange rate and exchange rate. This both property differs somewhat, but mutual having close tie. Problem of alleged RMB exchange rate, it is the problem of exchange rate mechanis
4、m above all, it is the problem of level of nominal exchange rate next. Some people advocate the RMB should insist to be exchange rate mechanism of the foundation with market supply and demand, but this kind of formulation is not precise. Because the market of exchange rate is market of international
5、 foreign currency, china is not exchangeable money at present, also do not participate in market of international foreign currency to trade, because this is actual,be cannot be a foundation with market supply and demand. Because this needs actually,decide exchange rate mechanism from governmental ap
6、iration (Exchangerateregime) problem. A lot of can offer the exchange rate mechanism of the choice. Think to have system of 9 kinds of exchange rate normally, 1. Freedom drifts, 2. Management drifts, 3. Target area, 4. One basket pin, 5. Creeping pin, 6. Adjustable pin, 7. Secure pin truly, 8. Conne
7、ction exchange rate is made, 9. Monetary alliance. About the analysis of exchange rate mechanism, not be problem of a rationalism actually, however problem of research of a demonstration. Up to now research of a case of a physically strong patient running a high fever or suffering from such disorder
8、s as stasis of blood, have not give out unanimous verdict. Some consider to think even, exchange rate mechanism nots matter, namely alleged “ the neutral of exchange rate mechanism assumes “ . The discussion with international good about which kind of exchange rate mechanisms academia does not have
9、final conclusion. There are a few viewpoints to think floating rate mechanism wants excel to secure exchange rate in domestic discussion, and think this ability accords with market economy principle actual it is not to understand international to go up to study positive result for years. Hong Kong t
10、ens of year execute connection exchange rate to make the model that does not affect people to admit Hong Kong is free market economy. And European Union interior executes monetary alliance to also have very good effect to the development of European economy. 1997 after Asian banking crisis, what a l
11、ot of people approbate international theory bound is “ two polarization “ viewpoint (the floating rate mechanism that drift freely namely and manages float place delegate, secure) of exchange rate mechanism with what what connection exchange rate and monetary alliance represent, and do not agree wit
12、h “ mechanism of intermediate exchange rate “ (namely afore-mentioned (3) , (4) , (5) , (6) is planted) of exchange rate mechanism. All countries had executed different exchange rate mechanism in the different period on the history. Because there is research to think in recent years on this internat
13、ional, in poor developing country, especially financial system has not develop, the country that does not have very good conformity with international capital market, use fixed exchange rate to be able to move good have but durative. To the developed country, their increase rate is high and inflatio
14、nary rate is low, “True “ floating rate is made more applicable. To rising market, more applicable the floating rate among is made. The main benefit of mechanism of fixed exchange rate has at 2 oclock; 1, decrease trade cost and exchange rate risk, be helpful for commerce and investment. 2, the has
15、credit mooring anchor that offers monetary policy to control inflation. Will analyse a problem from this angle, at present RMB the fixed exchange rate to the dollar also is a kind of exchange rate policy that is helpful for economic growth, actually although relatively long to period, china executes
16、 mechanism of fixed exchange rate also is benefit works energetically fraud. And if come from the policy angle of exciting economy,look, mechanism of change exchange rate can increase trade cost and exchange rate risk, go against commerce and investment, also be unfavorable “ exit “ had better. The
17、first question that Premier Wen Jiabao answers on the news conference March 14, 2010 is level of concerned RMB exchange rate, his answer is very clear: I think the currency value of the RMB was not underestimated. This conclusion from learned and political it is correct, make known his position so i
18、n the discussion of current home abroad very strong, what be close friends than a few ambiguous views is much. Made known his position this to still settle conceptual issue, namely Sino-US bilateral name exchange rate, and the multilateral and effective exchange rate of the RMB, with actual and mult
19、ilateral effective exchange rate (point to effectively namely multilateral, because this often also omits sometimes) to these concepts promiscuous it is to concern the common phenomenon in discussing at present. The RMB is current to the dollar it is pin, but to other currency it is float, because o
20、f the dollar the exchange rate to these moneys is float. So if the special period that says to stimulating economy has policy of special RMB exchange rate, namely the exchange rate policy that in certain period we implemented gaze at dollar is only right also Sino-US exchange rate can hold water, to
21、 other exchange rate do not hold water, to actual and multilateral effective exchange rate also do not hold water. A few discussing is the case that discussed imports and exports and favorable balance of trade from multilateral angle, such analysises talk about Sino-US commerce only to refuting thos
22、e, in thinking to want Sino-US trade only, the domestic and international comment that American existence adverse balance of trade should invite a RMB to appreciate is appropriate. Because a country is impossible,adjust oneself exchange rate policy from the assessment of the trade situation to a cou
23、ntry only. Actually besides Euramerican market, china faces other commerce markets even. Also should see at the same time and not be pair of beauty that have China only the worker that exports manufacturing industry of meeting extruding United States, actually all having manufacturing industry abili
24、ty, what the country with low cost works in the meantime is right to beautiful exit the worker of American manufacturing industry generates pressure. So exchange rate problem is a multilateral problem forever, is not bilateral issue. But also want to realise, analysing exchange rate problem from tra
25、de angle merely is one compares a tradition, not quite comprehensive analysis method, leave handle easily. Because if talk about commerce only, once the situation of commerce produces change, favorable now data is likely no longer advantageous. Because this more scientific analysis is from domestic
26、abroad two balanced the appraise that will analyse a RMB is worth a problem, it is more comprehensive analysis so, can the more strong increase that reflects China. Alleged and exterior balanced it is to point to often account is balanced (or balance of payments balances) , alleged interior is balan
27、ced it is the sufficient obtain employment that shows prices stabilizes premise to fall. If analyse a problem from so overall point of view, the RMB is maintained to the dollar stability is in in the past inside a paragraph of period, also make the tool of a kind of monetary policy of crisis of beat
28、 back banking and economic depression. But as a result of science of Chinese neither one, authentic unemployment rate statistic, because this is current and all,the research that in domestic abroad two balanced frame leave estimation RMB equilibrium rate of exchange does not have the very good unemp
29、loyment rate issue that considers China, because this also does not have the domestic balanced problem of very good consideration China. We know, the concussion of global banking crisis and economic depression to Chinese home obtain employment is tremendous, maintaining RMB exchange rate to stabiliz
30、e is to alleviate one of shifts of policy of this one percussive, the home to maintain China is accordingly balanced, alleviate the aggravation of unemployed problem, maintaining a RMB to be stabilized to the dollar have sufficient reason, maintaining stability to the exchange rate of many moneys al
31、so have sufficient reason, devalueing even also is well-founded. Need those who point out is method of theory of equilibrium rate of exchange to offer a person, the person such as Williamson once had analysed the research that two balanced frame of domestic abroad used to analyse RMB equilibrium rat
32、e of exchange on international before 2008 2008, in these 17 research, the difference of conclusion is very big also. The extent that thinks the RMB is underestimated from 0 present a vast difference to 55 . What point out even is, the analytic time that is the paper that RMB of a few views underestimates is a few years before, although these advocate the research that the RMB underestimates is in,can hold water at that time accordingly, appreciate via what cross the 20 that the RMB goes a few years, underestimated a part to also should disappear.