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1、China/Telecommunications Chinese telcos 2012 capex book: All hands on broadband We expect 2012 to be a mildly positive year for the telecom equipment industry, as total capex is expected to increase 11% YoY although that for listcos will increase only 7%, versus 2011Es overall growth of 4.9% and lis
2、tco growth of,Overweight 1 December 2011 Stocks for action,9.1% YoY. Three growth drivers stand out: (1) TD-LTE investments taking place at the parent level will account for 1.3ppt of the growth in 2012; (2) WCDMA investment at the listco level will account for 3.1ppt of the industry growth; and (3)
3、 broadband investment at both listco and parent levels will account for 7.4ppt of the growth. Other areas where we expect growth include network optimization and transmission. We expect decline in GSM, CDMA and wire- line voice. We raise our TP for ZTE to HK$24 (maintain,Company ZTE Comba China Mobi
4、le China Unicom China Telecom NetDragon AutoNavi Tencent,Ticker 963 HK 2342 HK 941 HK 762 HK 728 HK 777 HK AMAP US 700 US,Rating HOLD BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD,Price (29/11/20 11 close) 22.70 6.76 74.30 16.08 4.60 4.74 10.03 145.20,Target price 24.00 9.10 94.00 17.20 5.50 6.50 27.00 175.00,HOLD)
5、 and reinitiate coverage on Comba with BUY and a TP of HK$9.44. 2012: In and out,Note: Prices are in local currency Chinese telco capex forecast,Capex drivers in 2012 include: WCDMA - we foresee a 60-70% increase from 2011; and TD-LTE - we foresee a six-fold increase. We expect broadband capex to gr
6、ow 40% YoY, driven by,(Rmb m) Wireless Wireline/Broadband IT support systems,2010 144,828 97,500 28,663,2011E 151,330 90,134 33,684,2012E 158,010 120,633 33,984,2013E 160,250 138,813 33,458,investment by CT, CUs listco and CMs parent. Capex reductions in 2012 would be for GSM, which already saw a 30
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