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1、Supply Chain Integration (供应链整合),1,Problem1,Advantages and problems of build-to-stock manufacture strategy (push system) (存货生产的优缺点) Cost、efficiency vs. Product variety、short product life cycle (成本、效率 vs. 产品多样化、短产品生命周期) Why Coca Cola can take the advantages and prevent the problems？ Industry specific
2、 (与行业有关) Can POS (pull system) solve all the problems ? (引入POS系统可以解决所有问题么？),2,Problem2which one is better?,3,Material Flow (物流 ),Information Flow (信息流),Outline (大纲),Push, Pull and Push-Pull Supply Chain Strategies (推式、拉式以及推拉式策略) Match Products/Industries with Supply Chain Strategies (匹配产品与供应链策略) Dem
3、and-driven Supply Chain Strategies (需求驱动的供应链策略) Internet Impacts Supply Chain Integration (互联网对供应链整合的影响) Efficient Distribution Strategies (有效的供应链配送策略),4,The Old Paradigm: Push Strategies (老范式:推式策略),Production decisions based on long-term forecasts (产品决策基于长期的预测) Ordering decisions based on inventory
4、 & forecasts (订货决策基于库存与预测) What are the problems with push strategies? (存在的问题) Inability to meet changing demand patterns (需求模式变动时没有办法满足需求) Obsolescence (过时的策略) The bullwhip effect (牛鞭效应): Excessive inventory (库存过多) Excessive production variability (生产变动太大) Poor service levels (服务水平差),5,A Newer Para
5、digm: Pull Strategies (新范式:推式策略),Production is demand driven (生产是需求驱动的) Production and distribution coordinated with true customer demand (生产与配送按照真实的顾客需求协调) Firms respond to specific orders (公司应对具体的订单) Pull Strategies result in (推式策略导致): Reduced lead times (better anticipation) (提前期的减少) Decreased in
6、ventory levels at retailers and manufacturers (零售商与制造商库存水平的减少) Decreased system variability (系统变动性的减少) Better response to changing markets (更好应对变化的市场) But: Harder to leverage economies of scale (规模效应小) Doesnt work in all cases (不是总有效，买车的例子),6,Push and Pull Systems (推式与拉式系统),What are the advantages o
7、f push systems? (推式系统的优点是什么？) What are the advantages of pull systems? (拉式系统的优点是什么？) Is there a system that has the advantages of both systems? (是否有一个系统兼具两者的有点？),7,A new Supply Chain Paradigm Push-Pull Supply Chain (新的供应链范式推拉式供应链),The initial stages, are operated in a push-based manner while the rem
8、aining stages employ a pull-based strategy. (供应链上游采用推式策略而下游则采用拉式策略) The interface between the push-based stages and the pull-based stages is the push-pull boundary. (推拉式策略的接口称作推拉边界),8,Push-Pull Supply Chains (推拉式供应链),9,Consider Two PC Manufacturers (两种生产模式的PC制造商):,Build to Stock (存货生产) Forecast dema
9、nd (预测需求) Buys components (购买部件) Assembles computers (装配电脑) Observes demand and meets demand if possible. (观察并满足需求) A traditional push system (传统的推式系统),Build to order (按单生产) Forecast demand (预测需求) Buys components (购买部件) Observes demand (观察需求) Assembles computers (装配电脑) Meets demand (满足需求) A push-pul
10、l system (推拉式系统) The push-pull boundary is at the beginning of assemble. (推拉系统的边界在装配的初始阶段),10,Push-Pull Strategies1 (推拉式策略),The push-pull system takes advantage of the rules of forecasting (推拉式系统利用预测准则): Forecasts are always wrong (预测总是错误的) The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast (
11、finished goods) (产成品的预测周期越长预测的结果越差) Aggregate forecasts are more accurate (components) (集成的预测更加准确) The Risk Pooling Concept (风险共担),11,Push-Pull Strategies2 (推拉式策略),Postponement, or Delayed differentiation in product design is another example (延迟制造或延迟产品差异化是又一例子) The firm designs the product and the m
12、anufacturing process so that decisions about which specific product is being manufactured can be delayed as long as possible. (公司设计产品与生产流程以至于具体的产品制造尽可能推迟) The portion of the supply chain prior to product differentiation is typically operated using a push-based strategy. (产品差异化之前的供应链采用推式策略) The porti
13、on of the supply chain starting from the time of differentiation is pull-based. (产品差异化之后的供应链采用拉式策略),12,What is the Best Strategy about Push Pull Strategy? (最好的推拉策略是什么？),13,Selecting the Best SC Strategy1 (选择最好的供应链战略),Higher demand uncertainty suggests pull (需求不确定性越大选择拉式策略) Higher importance of econo
14、mies of scale suggests push (规模效应越重要选择推式策略) High uncertainty/ EOS not important (Box I) such as the computer industry implies pull (需求不确定性大/规模效应不重要选择拉式策略) Low uncertainty/ EOS important (Box III) such as groceries implies push (需求不确定性小/规模效应重要选择推式策略) Demand is stable (需求稳定) Transportation cost reduct
15、ion is critical (运输成本减少很关键) Pull would not be appropriate here. (不适合拉式策略),14,Selecting the Best SC Strategy2 (选择最好的供应链战略),Low uncertainty but low value of economies of scale (Box IV)(high volume books and cds) (需求不确定性小以及低规模效应) Either push strategies or push/pull strategies might be most appropriate
16、(推式策略或者推拉式策略) High uncertainty and high value of economies of scale (Box II) (需求不确定性大以及高规模效应) For example, the furniture industry (家具行业) How can production be pull but delivery push? (生产过程采用拉式策略而配送过程采用推式策略) Is this a “pull-push” system? (是否存在推拉式系统?),15,Push-Pull Strategy Case Study (推拉式策略案例研究),Coca
17、cola 真功夫 McDonalds Sport Obermeyer (p.142) Low-risk products High-risk products,16,Characteristics and Skills (策略特征与所需技巧),17,Raw Material (原材料),Customers (顾客),Pull,Push,Low Uncertainty (不确定性小) Long Lead Times (提前期长) Cost Minimization (成本最小化) Resource Allocation (最优的资源利用率),High Uncertainty (不确定性大) Sh
18、ort Cycle Times (提前期短) Service Level (服务优先) Responsiveness (敏捷优先),Locating the Push-Pull Boundary1 (定位推拉边界),The push section (推式部分): Uncertainty is relatively low (不确定性相对小) Economies of scale important (规模效应重要) Long lead times (提前期长) Complex supply chain structures (供应链结构复杂) Thus Management based on
19、 forecasts is appropriate (基于预测进行管理) Focus is on cost minimization (关注成本最小化) Achieved by effective resource utilization supply chain optimization (通过有效的资源利用达到),18,Locating the Push-Pull Boundary2 (定位推拉边界),The pull section (拉式部分): High uncertainty (不确定性大) Simple supply chain structure (供应链结构简单) Short
20、 lead times (提前期短) Thus Reacting to realized demand is important (应对实现的需求很重要) Focus on service level (关注服务水平) Flexible and responsive approaches (灵活与敏捷的方法),19,Locating the Push-Pull Boundary3 (定位推拉边界),The push section requires (推式部分需要): Supply chain planning (供应链计划) Long term strategies (长期战略) The p
21、ull section requires (拉式部分需要): Order fulfillment processes (订单实现过程) Customer relationship management (顾客关系管理) Buffer inventory at the boundaries (推拉边界的缓冲库存): The output of the tactical planning process (战术计划过程的输出) The input to the order fulfillment process (订单实现过程的输入),20,Locating the Push-Pull Bound
22、ary4 (定位推拉边界),21,Demand-Driven Strategies (需求驱动的策略),Demand Information Needs to be Integrated into the Supply Chain Planning Program and It includes (需求信息需要整合到供应链计划中，具体包括): Demand Forecast (需求预测): Use History Information to Predict Future Requirements Demand Shaping (需求调节): Promotion, Discount, Reba
23、te, Product Phase in and Phase out. (促销、价格折扣、回扣、新产品导入以及老产品导出),22,Impact of the Internet Expectations Were High (互联网的影响非常之大),E-business strategies were supposed to (电子商务策略原本的目的是): Reduce cost (减少成本) Increase service level (提高顾客服务水平) Increase flexibility (增加灵活性) Increase profit (增加利润),23,Reality is do
24、wnfall(事实则没有那么乐观),A Example (亚马逊例子) Founded in 1995; 1st Internet purchase for most people (95年成立) 1996: $16M Sales, $6M Loss 1999: $1.6B Sales, $720M Loss 2000: $2.7B Sales, $1.4B Loss Last quarter of 2001: $50M Profit Total debt: $2.2B Peapod Example Founded 1989 (89年成立) 140,000 members, largest o
25、n-line grocer Revenue tripled to $73 million in 1999 1st Quarter of 2000: $25M Sales, Loss: $8M,24,Live through Winter and Embrace Spring (活过冬天迎来春天),A Example (亚马逊例子) 2006: $10.7B Sales, $2.5B Profit 2007: $14.8B Sales, $3.4B Profit Second quarter of 2008: $1B Profit Total debt: $4.1B Stock Price at
26、 Oct 3, 2008 67.7 USD per Share,25,Reality is successful (成功的例子),Dell Example (Dell案例): Dell Computer has outperformed the competition in terms of shareholder value growth over the eight years period, 1988-1996, by over 3,000% (see Anderson and Lee, 1999) (Dell电脑公司通过在1988到1996年间增加股东价值超过30倍),26,What
27、is E-Business? 1 (什么是电子商务),E-business is a collection of business models and processes motivated by Internet technology, and focusing on improving the extended enterprise performance (电子商务就是基于互联网技术的一系列业务模型与流程集合，主要关注提高供应链的绩效) E-commerce is the ability to perform major commerce transactions electronic
28、ally (电子商贸主要指商务交易的电子化实现),27,What is E-Business? 2 (什么是电子商务),e-commerce is part of e-Business (电子商贸是电子商务的一部分) Internet technology is the driver of the business change (互联网是电子商务的驱动力) The focus is on the extended enterprise (关注的是扩大化的企业): Intra-organizational (跨越组织的) Business to Consumer (B2C) Business
29、to Business (B2B),28,The Grocery Industry (杂货行业),From Push Systems (从推式系统). Supermarket supply chain (超市供应链) To Pull Systems (到拉式系统). Peapod, 1989-1999 Picks inventory from stores (顾客从商店拿货) Stock outs 8% to 10% (缺货率为8%到10%) And, finally to Push-Pull Systems (最后到推拉式系统) Peapod, 1999-present Dedicated
30、warehouses allow risk pooling (专门的仓库允许风险共担) Stock outs less than 2%缺货率少于2%),29,Challenges for On-line Grocery Stores (在线杂货店的挑战),Transportation cost (交通成本) Density of customers (顾客密度) Very short order cycle times (很短的订单周期时间) Less than 12 hours (不到12小时) Difficult to compete on cost (很难在成本上竞争) Must pro
31、vide some added value such as convenience (必须提供诸如便捷性等增值服务) Is a push-pull strategy appropriate? (推拉策略是否合适) What might be a better strategy? (最好的策略是什么呢?) Low demand uncertainty, high economies of scale push strategy is better? (不确定性小、高规模效应推式策略更好?),30,Less than 300,000 shoppers (少于300k的顾客),31,Source:
32、D. Ratliff,A New Type of Home Grocer (新型的家庭式杂货店), On-line window for retailers (零售商在线窗口) The on-line grocer picks products at the store (在线杂货商在零售店进货) Customer can pick products at the store or pay for delivery (顾客则在零售店取货或者付钱送货),32,The Book Selling Industry (图书行业),From Push Systems (从推式系统). Barnes an
33、d Noble To Pull Systems (到拉式系统). A, 1996-1999 No inventory, used Ingram to meet most demand (没有库存、靠Ingram公司满足大部分需求) Why? (为什么?) And, finally to Push-Pull Systems (最后到推拉式系统) A, 1999-present 7 warehouses, 3M sq. ft., Why the switch? (为什么要换模式) Margins, service, etc. Volume grew,33,Direct-to-Consumer:Co
34、st Trade-Off (直接配送成本权衡),Industry Benchmarks: Number of Distribution Centers (工业标准: 配送中心的个数),35,Sources: CLM 1999, Herbert W. Davis LogicTools,Avg. # of WH,3,14,25,Pharmaceuticals (制药行业),Food Companies (食品行业),Chemicals (化工行业),- High margin product (高利润) - Service not important (or easy to ship expres
35、s) (服务水平不重要) - Inventory expensive (库存成本高) relative to transportation,- Low margin product - Service very important - Outbound transportation expensive relative to inbound,The Retail Industry (零售行业),Brick-and-mortar companies establish virtual retail stores click-and mortar (实体公司建立虚拟零售店) Wal-Mart, K
36、-Mart, Barnes & Noble, Circuit City An effective approach - hybrid stocking strategy (有效的方法则是混合库存策略) High volume/fast moving products for local storage (量大的走货快的则用本地存储) Low volume/slow moving products for browsing and purchase on line (risk pooling) (量小的/走货慢的则可以采用在线购买),36,Another Case (案例),Starbucks,
37、37,E-Fulfillment (电子订单实现),How have strategies changed? (策略如何改变?) From shipping cases to single items (从运送箱到单件产品) From shipping to a relatively small number of stores to individual end users (从运送相对少量的店铺到最终的终端客户) Increased the importance and the complexity of reverse logistics (增加逆向物流的重要性与复杂度),38,E-Fu
38、lfillment Requires a New Logistics Infrastructure (电子订单实现需要全新的物流基础设施),39,E-business Opportunities1 (电子商务的机会),Reduce Facility Costs (减少设施投入) Eliminate retail/distributor sites (减少零售商/配送网点) Reduce Inventory Costs (减少库存成本) Apply the risk-pooling concept (应用风险共担概念) Centralized stocking (集成仓库) Postponeme
39、nt of product differentiation (延迟产品差异化) Use Dynamic Pricing Strategies to Improve Supply Chain Performance (采用动态定价策略提高供应链的绩效),40,E-business Opportunities2 (电子商务的机会),Supply Chain Visibility (供应链的可视性) Reduction in the Bullwhip Effect (减少牛鞭效应) Reduction in Inventory (减少库存) Improved service level (提高顾客服
40、务水平) Better utilization of Resources (提高资源利用率) Improve supply chain performance (提高供应链绩效) Provide key performance measures (提供主要的绩效衡量) Identify and alert when violations occur (识别以及预警异常的发生) Allow planning based on global supply chain data (运行基于供应链数据的计划),41,Distribution Strategies (配送策略),Direct Shipp
41、ing (直接运输) No DC needed (不需要中心仓库) Lead times reduced (提前期减少) “smaller trucks” (小卡车运输) no risk pooling effects (无风险共担效应) Warehousing (仓储) Warehouses keep stock and provide customers with items as required. (仓库保存库存以及提供顾客所需) Cross-Docking (越库作业) Distributed continuously from suppliers through warehouse
42、s to customers. However, the warehouses rarely keep the items for more than 10 to 15 hours. (连续地从供应商通过仓库向顾客配送，仓库库存周转时间很少超10到15小时),42,Direct Shipping (直接配送),Advantages (优势): Save the Cost of Running Distribution Centers (节省经营配送中心的费用) Decrease Lead-time (减少提前期) Disadvantages (优势): No Risk Pooling Effe
43、ct (无风险共担效应) Increased Transportation Cost (运输成本增加),43,Cross Docking (越库作业),In 1979 Kmart had 1891 stores and average revenues per store of $7.25 million (Kmart有1891间店铺，平均每家年销售额为$7.25M) Wal-Mart was a small niche retailer in the South with only 229 stores and average revenues under $3.5 million (Wal
44、-Mart有229间店铺，平均每家年销售额为$3.5M) 10 Years later Wal-Mart had highest sales per square foot of any discount retailer (最高的每平方尺的销售额) highest inventory turnover of any discount retailer (最高的库存周转率) Highest operating profit of any discount retailer. (最高的利润额) Today Wal-Mart is the largest and highest profit re
45、tailer in the world (世界上最大并且盈利最多的零售商),44,What accounts for Wal-Marts remarkable success (成功秘诀),A focus on satisfying customer needs (专注满足顾客需要) providing customers access to goods when and where they want them (给顾客在其需要的时间与地点提供其需要的产品) cost structures that enable competitive pricing (成本结构使得价格竞争更有优势) Wa
46、l-Mart employed a logistics technique known as cross-docking (使用越库作业物流技术) goods are continuously delivered to warehouses where they are dispatched to stores without ever sitting in inventory. This strategy reduced Wal-Marts cost of sales significantly and made it possible to offer everyday low price
47、s to their customers. (物流策略显著减少沃尔玛的销售成本而使其日日低价策略得以实现),45,System Characteristics of Cross-Docking1 (越库作业的系统特征),Very difficult to manage (很难管理) Requires advanced information technology. (需要先进的信息技术) All of Wal-Marts distribution centers, suppliers and stores are electronically linked to guarantee that
48、any order is processed and executed in a matter of hours (沃尔玛所有的配送中心、供应商以及店铺都通过计算机系统链接一起保证订单处理与执行以小时计算) Wal-Mart operates a private satellite-communications system that sends point-of-sale data to all its vendors allowing them to have a clear vision of sales at the stores (沃尔玛运营一个私有的通信卫星系统将POS数据发送给供
49、应商),46,System Characteristics of Cross-Docking2 (越库作业的系统特征),Needs a fast and responsive transportation system (需要一个快速与敏捷的运输系统) Wal-Mart has a dedicated fleet of 2000 truck that serve their 19 warehouses (沃尔玛有一个拥有2000台卡车服务19个仓库的专有车队) This allows them to ship goods from warehouses to stores in less than 48 hours (从仓库到店铺的运输不到48个小时) replenish stores twice a week on average (店铺一周平均补货两次),47,48,Distribution Strategies (配送策略),Transshipment (转运),The shipment of items between different facilities at the same