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1、Boilerplate text to go here Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. xxxxxA Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020 A bold future? Document Variables Document TitleTemplate Document SubtitleSubtitle The Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions The Deloitte Centre for Healt
2、h Solutions, part of Deloitte UK, generates insights and thought leadership based on the key trends, challenges and opportunities within the healthcare and life sciences industry. Working closely with other centres in the Deloitte network, including the US Center for Health Solutions in Washington,
3、our team of researchers develop ideas, innovations and insights that encourage collaboration across the health value chain, connecting the public and private sectors, health providers and purchasers, and consumers and suppliers. Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020 A bold future? 1 Foreword
4、 Deloitte UKs Centre for Health Solutions has published numerous reports on the current and future issues of the healthcare market place our insights drawn from primary research, desk research, significant interaction with our clients and stakeholders in the health and life sciences sector, and from
5、 the depth and breadth of capability within our global network. Our work is typically precise and evidence based, focused on the challenges of today and the solutions of tomorrow, building on prior research. We have perhaps been cautious in our views. This report is entirely different. It is deliber
6、ately challenging about the future world, perhaps even provocative. Our work draws on observations of trends, events and small but bold steps that if accelerated through to the year 2020 and beyond paint a picture of a world that is very different from today. Executive teams across healthcare and li
7、fe sciences organisations often ask “do you have a paper setting out the challenges of our future market place? We have a strategy working session next month and need some insights, challenge and a little provocation.” This document aims to fulfil that requirement. In this report we set out ten prov
8、ocative statements predicting the world of 2020. Each prediction is articulated and brought to life through a series of portraits which imagine how patients, healthcare professionals and life sciences organisations might behave in this new world. Our predictions lean more towards an optimistic view
9、of the future, although we recognise that many in our industry are sceptical about the constraints and therefore pace of change. We describe the big trends rolled forward to 2020 and some of the constraints that will need to be overcome. We also provide examples and evidence, based on the here and n
10、ow, that show that the predictions are perfectly plausible, perhaps inspiring and surprising! Our industry is changing quickly requiring a bold response that is often difficult to implement and yet organisations struggle to understand how to respond effectively and build a sense of urgency. We hope
11、this report creates rich dialogue and enables a move to action. Certainly throughout Deloitte we have had enormous fun discussing these predictions and sharing our experiences. We hope you have the same experience within your own organisations as you peruse this report and reflect on your current si
12、tuation and future scenarios. Karen Taylor Hanno Ronte Simon Hammett Director Partner Partner Deloitte UK Centre for Health Solutions Monitor Deloitte EMEA and from 8.1% in Asia and Australia to 8.7% in the Middle East and Africa2 Generics will take a larger share of total global medicine spend, inc
13、reasing from 27% (USD 261 billion) in 2012 to 36% (USD 421 billion) by 20174 In 2013, across the G7 markets, there was a companion diagnostic deal nearly every working day 226 deals, up from only 8 deals in 20093 Med tech industry sales are expected to increase from USD 363.8 billion in 2013 to USD
14、513.5 billion in 2020. In-vitro diagnostics will be the top segment2 Total global pharmaceutical spending is expected to increase by 6.9% a year from USD1.23 trillion in 2014 to USD1.61 trillion in 2018. Oncology is expected to remain the main contributor among therapeutic areas2 The number of peopl
15、e with diabetes globally is 382 million, around I in 4 are Chinese. There are more diabetics in China than the combined populations of Germany and Portugal2 Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020 A bold future? 3 Ten Predictions for 2020 Provocative insights both evolutionary and revolutionar
16、y Health consumers in 2020 Informed and demanding patients are now partners in their own healthcare 4 Research and Development in 2020 The networked laboratory partnerships and big data amidst new scrutiny 24 Internal industry performance shaping predictions External environment shaping predictions
17、Healthcare delivery systems in 2020 The era of digitised medicine new business models drive new ideas 8 The pharmaceutical commercial model in 2020 Local is important but with a shift from volume to value 28 Wearables and mHealth applications in 2020 Measuring quality of life not just clinical indic
18、ators 12 The pharmaceutical enterprise configuration the back office in 2020 Single, global organisation responsible for insight enablement 32 Big Data in 2020 Health data is pervasive requiring new tools and provider models 16 New business models in emerging markets in 2020 Still emerging, but full
19、 of creativity for the world 36 Regulatory compliance and patient safety in 2020 Regulations reflect the convergence of technology and science 20 Impact of behaviours on corporate reputation in 2020 A new dawn of trust 40 1 6 2 7 3 8 4 9 5 10 4 Health consumers in 2020 Informed and demanding patient
20、s are now partners in their own healthcare Prediction Individuals are better informed about their genetic profile, the diseases they have and might have, and the availability of healthcare. Expectations of healthcare and better outcomes for themselves and loved ones are at their highest. The quantif
21、ied self has embraced prevention and is devoting time, energy and money to staying healthy. When ill, patients demand specific treatments; they are also willing, in part, to pay. Patients are true consumers, they understand they have options and use information and data about themselves and provider
22、s to get the best treatment at a time, place and cost convenient to them. Healthcare organisations now engage with patients through social media, regularly gauging their needs and driving them to appropriate products and services for their budget and healthcare requirements. Online patient communiti
23、es have grown exponentially and are rich sources of crowd-sourced data, with rating systems for drugs and healthcare provision. Advanced analytics on patient chatter in these communities gather health information, providing a better understanding of which treatments deliver the best outcomes, allowi
24、ng real time tailoring of pharmaceutical messages and services. They also provide early alerts on diseases, such as influenza. Businesses and governments work with communities of patients, hospitals and payers to identify best practice and cost-effective treatments. New provider and industry models,
25、 including mutuals and other forms of collaboration and cooperation, help decrease costs and improve care. Note: All elements on this page are from a perspective of 2020 and are fictional Consumers accept that they are largely responsible for their health incentives for good behaviour are now firmly
26、 established from reductions in co-payments to lower taxes (for example, for not smoking). Privacy and security of data remain concerns, but there is an understanding of the benefits of sharing data. Payers and providers embrace complex patients, having invested in analytics and programmes that lead
27、 to new care pathways. Clinicians go from being reluctant to engage with electronic health information from wearables to active engagement in developing and improving the technology. Most patients in developed countries now have access to their own electronic health records, and decide who to share
28、it with. 2020 The 2020 worldConquered constraints in 2020 Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020 A bold future? 5 Launch of new on-line interactive courses for primary care doctors on how to get the most out of new technology and how to deal with knowledgeable, health savvy, patients; many of
29、 whom are often better informed than their doctors. P4-Medicine is the new norm medicine that is Predictive, Preventative, Personalised and Participatory. The new participating platform, PatientPeopleP, was last nights worthy winner of the award for the most influential patient advocacy movement in
30、2019-20. News snippets from 2020 Mary knew that she was at risk of developing breast cancer as, following her mothers death from the disease, genetic testing showed she was carrying the same gene. Her more immediate worry, however, was that her recent weight gain meant her diabetes was becoming more
31、 difficult to control, as well as increasing her risk of breast cancer. It all started when she had to give up work to look after her seriously ill mother and eating became her main form of comfort. Data on her smart phone app showed her health was worsening. Whats more, her diabetic nurse specialis
32、t had messaged her every two weeks for the last three months to get her to come in, based on the continuous streaming of her health data, including her home weighing machine, to her health record. She also knew she wouldnt be eligible for the new breakthrough drug with weight control benefits she ha
33、d found for her Type 2 diabetes, if she failed to get her BMI down to an acceptable level. She hoped her new online support group and the Be the Local Loser gaming competition on her smart phone will help her lose weight and reduce her health risks. The 2020 patient portrait The new social media dep
34、artment has been operating for three years and has enjoyed a number of notable achievements in supporting key brand launches and winning several new media awards. The department was singularly responsible for helping both patients and payers understand that not only was the efficacy of the drug and
35、service package superior to the previous care packages, it also encouraged the right behaviour change in patients, creating long lasting health, and thus cost benefits. It was also responsible for building a new form of trust between patients, doctors and the pharmaceutical company. A pharmaceutical
36、 marketing manager view in 2020 6 Evidence in 2014 Patients becoming more like consumers “ While most industries have embraced the idea that the customer comes first, healthcare has lagged far behind. No more, the recognition has finally dawned on healthcare providers that meeting the challenges of
37、today rests on their ability to put the customer at the centre of everything they do, changing from a paternalistic approach to a patient-centred approach that will recast the deal between patient, providers and payers.” Sarah Thomas, Director, Deloitte US Center for Health Solutions, Deloitte Servi
38、ces LP How comfortable are you, or would you be, with the following types of interaction?Do you currently maintain an electronic health record of any kind for yourself, not counting the record(s) any of your doctors might maintain for you? US consumers use of electronic health records, across all ag
39、e groups, has doubled in the last fi ve years from eight per cent to 16 per cent Source: Deloitte US Centre for Health Solutions, 2013 Consumer Survey SegmentationSource: Deloitte US Centre for Health Solutions, 2013 Consumer Survey Segmentation Chart shows percentage of the total sample who represe
40、nted yes 020406 total sample080100120 Adressing a health concern through an email or text with a doctor or other health professional 20%32%37%12% 22%33%34%11% 27%35%26%11% 27%35%29%9% Using a video, computer program, or mobile app to learn more about or choose between treatment options Using a compu
41、ter or mobile device to send or receive an image related to a personal health problem, to or from a doctor or other health professional Consulting with a doctor or other health professional through a video connnection (e.g. FaceTime, Skype) Very comfortableSomewhat comfortableNot comfortable Chart s
42、how % of total sample Not sure5 10 15 20 201320122011201020092008 8% 9% 10% 11% 10% 16% 2014 New entrants are transforming healthcare. For example, US retail outlets are becoming serious primary care providers by expanding their services in response to consumer demand. Providing cheap, fast, conveni
43、ent care, seven days and evenings a week (when finding a primary care doctor can be a challenge). Services include access to vaccinations, screening and management of chronic conditions. Most retail clinics accept insurance and all take cash payments. Increasingly, the clinics are affiliated to, or
44、have partnerships with, their local healthcare systems; enabling them to share data and access patients electronic health records. Consumers do not need to make an appointment, reasons for the visit are entered onto a digital screen and the consumer is usually seen by a nurse practitioner or physici
45、an assistant within minutes. In October 2014, Walmart opened a series of new clinics, limited to markets where people are uninsured or under-insured, have a high rate of chronic diseases or struggle to get access to medical care, as well as places where it has a large number of employees. Visits cos
46、ts USD 40, (about half the industry standard) or just USD 4 for Walmart US for employees and family members with the companys insurance. A pregnancy test costs just USD 3, and a cholesterol test USD 8. See also: http:/ Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020 A bold future? 7 8 Healthcare deliv
47、ery systems in 2020 The era of digitised medicine new business models drive new ideas Prediction The home is where much of the medical care takes place. It is no longer confined to clinicians in the clinic or hospital. The ubiquity of digital communication means that many doctor-patient contacts are
48、 now virtual and deliver care to the patient in their home. Specialist hospital treatment is reserved for trauma and emergency surgery; local day care organisations deal with most elective surgery, while chronic and long-term conditions are managed in the community. Care is provided via accountable
49、care (type) organisations for a defined patient population, which take on the population risk. New funding models include year-of-care tariffs, pooled budgets, capitation or personal health budgets. 2020 Web-based portals that enable regulatory compliant (and reimbursable) video interactions between patient and clinician are now supported by a wide array of web-integrated wireless monitoring devices. Healthcare pro