《ASIA_CREDIT_STRATEGY：WILL_THIS_TIME_BE_DIFFERENT_-2013-04-14.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《ASIA_CREDIT_STRATEGY：WILL_THIS_TIME_BE_DIFFERENT_-2013-04-14.pdf（17页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia-Pacific (EM) Asia Credit Strategy Credit HY Strategy IG Strategy Date 12 April 2013 Will this time be different? _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Gene Cheon Research Analyst (+65) 6
2、4236967 Colin Tan, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 5720 Devinda Paranathanthri Research Analyst (+65) 64235718 Time to take stock and fine-tune our expectations for 2013 After having twice reached our respective IG and HY target of 220bp and 550bp in Q1, we take stock and fine tune our expectati
3、ons for the rest of the year. Our directional view remains unchanged. We still expect spreads to finish the year tighter but have revised our total return forecast. We now expect IG and HY spreads to reach around 222bp (current 233bp) and 504bp (current 510bp) in Q4. Together with DBs house view on
4、rates, this gives us a TR of +3.6% for IG and +7.4% for HY in 2013. Can the BoJ offset the seasonal weakness in May-June? The BoJs QE is clearly the topic du jour and global risk assets have responded favorably. BoJs policies have potentially significant implications for global fixed income markets
5、if Japanese investors are forced to look abroad for higher yielding alternatives. Structurally this could become a technical tailwind for Asian Credit, but we think it may take some time before inflows become firmly entrenched. The impact will likely vary across sectors/regions and high quality spre
6、ad products (stronger Sovs/Quasis) are likely to be the first beneficiary. Fighting central bank liquidity has proven to be costly, so we remain strategically invested in Asian credit given the carry/spread relative to DM assets. However, as we approach the seasonally weaker months (May- June) for c
7、redit spreads we feel the need to be tactically cautious and selective in Q2. Few other reasons for this include the a) softening data momentum low visibility of a strong earnings improvement in 1H, b) large new issues pipeline ahead, c) lingering geopolitical risks in Asia and d) Eurozone growth/po
8、litical uncertainties. We also update our performance review charts on Asia credit. Strategy recommendation Investment Grade Prefer quality names with better trading liquidity. With positioning in short-dated paper becoming somewhat one-sided, the belly now offers some selective value. We consider f
9、our investment themes. ? Clean energy play: upgrade XINAOG 21 to CreditBuy and maintain CreditBuy on LONGYU 49. ? China over Korea for value- switch ideas: Buy CNOOC 22/Sell KORGAS 20, Buy COSL 22 /Sell POHANG 21, Buy TENCNT 18 /Sell SKM 18. ? India Quasi Corps: After the strong rally we think the o
10、verall sector looks fairly valued here. ? High beta play: CreditBuy YZCOAL 22 as valuations are not stretched given the absence of an imminent rating downgrade risk. High Yield Overall valuations for high yield offers little upside at this point and we view the sector as more of a carry play. We rem
11、ain selective, focusing on spread pick up plays with less downside risks. ? China Industrials: We rate FUFENG16 and HYVANL16s as CreditBuy. Among the cement names, we see some relative value in SHASHU17s15c on a YTC basis. We are cautious on HIDILI15, WINSWY 16 as a result, the recommendations may d
12、iffer and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and oth
13、er factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Deutsche Bank may with respect to securities covered by this report,
14、sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on a proprietary basis. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for
15、use by investors is dependent on the investors own circumstances including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities and as such investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or insp
16、ired by the contents of this publication. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options,“ at http:/ . If you are unable to access the website please contact Deu
17、tsche Bank AG at +1 (212) 250-7994, for a copy of this important document. The risk of loss in futures trading, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures trading, losses may be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initiall
18、y deposited. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Ger
19、many this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt authorized by the BaFin. In the United Kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduc
20、t of investment business in the UK and authorized by the BaFin. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. This report is distributed in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited,
21、Singapore Branch, and recipients in Singapore of this report are to contact Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. Where this report is issued or promulgated in Singapore to
22、a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited, Singapore Branch accepts legal responsibility to such person for the contents o
23、f this report. In Japan this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. The information contained in this report does not constitute the provision of investment advice. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any fi
24、nancial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Additional information relative
25、to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without Deutsche Banks prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting. Copyright 2013 Deutsche Bank AG