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1、2012 petrochemicals report issN 1749-2130 published by Business monitor international ltd. aUstralia INCLUDES BMIS FORECASTS Business Monitor International 85 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AB UK Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 Email: Web: http:/ 2010 Business Monitor Inter
2、national. All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor International, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic
3、, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed
4、to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omission
5、s affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. AUSTRALIA PETROCHEMICALS REPORT 2012 INCLUDING 5-YEAR INDU
6、STRY FORECASTS BY BMI Part of BMIs Industry Report Yara is a minority shareholding the Burrup Holdings. However, this is likely to be delayed pending the outcome of the stake owned by Burrup Holdings majority shareholders, the businessman Pankaj Oswal and his wife who object to the joint venture. Et
7、hylene capacity is to remain at 515,000tpa, while PE and PP capacities are likely to remain static at 410,000tpa and 355,000tpa respectively. However, 2010 saw the end of polystyrene production in Australia following Huntsmans decision in September 2009 to close its facilities, which included 30,000
8、tpa of PS capacity. The Australian petrochemicals industry is influenced by developments in China, Australias main export market for petrochemicals and petrochemicals-utilising products. BMI forecasts a slowdown in Chinese demand growth going into 2012 as a result of more sluggish demand in the auto
9、motive, consumer goods and construction industries in China and the domestic market. BMI now sees evidence of a bubble in the Chinese property market. If tightening of the credit market continues and the pace of construction abates, the slowdown will lead to zero growth in the PVC segment and slow g
10、rowth in PE and PP. However, if the bubble bursts and China falls into recession, the consequences for the Australian petrochemicals industry will be more devastating than the 2009 contraction. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6 Carbon emissions pose a dow
11、nside risk. Chemical and plastics manufacturers are set to receive 66% of their emissions permits for free during the initial stages of the scheme, with liquefied gas producers to receive 50%. However, the carbon tax has attracted opposition from petrochemicals producers and downstream processors. B
12、MI believes that carbon taxes are unlikely to be a significant threat to Australian petrochemicals production as the costs will be manageable. The costs will vary across the sector according to the amount of carbon emitted, the compensation offered and the ability to pass on costs to consumers. Prod
13、ucers of advanced, speciality products will be the least affected, while basic chemicals will suffer increased costs. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 SWOT Analysis Australian Petrochemicals Industry SWOT Strengths ? Hydrocarbon resources and proximity t
14、o Asian markets, particularly China Weaknesses ? Growing trade deficit ? Sub-par plant size and a dated asset base ? Ample feedstock supplies, but located in remote, far-flung areas Opportunities ? Automation of the Netherlands-based Basells plants leading to increase in productivity ? Expansion of
15、the petrochemicals industry in western Australia ? Consolidation in the industry expected to result in higher productivity and profitability Threats ? Trade deficit widening further ? Industry failing to meet domestic demand and losing out on export potential Australia Political SWOT Strengths ? Aus
16、tralia is a mature democracy with a broadly stable party system. ? Economic stability over recent years supports the current political system and radical groups are unlikely to gain substantial support. Weaknesses ? As one of the regions largest and most stable states, the country attracts many refu
17、gees and economic migrants. The issue is a key source of domestic tension and one that is unlikely to disappear over the medium term. Opportunities ? Australia has historically enjoyed close military ties with the US. However, with the rise of regional economic powers like China, it will need to bal
18、ance competing military and economic ties. Threats ? Australias early support for the US War on Terror, among other things, has made Australians abroad a target for Islamic extremists. ? Australias close alliance with the US, particularly under John Howard, has left a lingering feeling among some As
19、ian governments that Canberra is Washingtons deputy sheriff in the region. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 Australia Economic SWOT Strengths ? A free-market economy supported by a highly educated workforce. ? Blessed with rich natural resources, Austral
20、ias economic activity will be augmented by commodity exports, especially to China. Weaknesses ? The persistent current account deficit increases vulnerability to capital flows and, by extension, currency volatility. ? The export basket is highly concentrated in commodities, with the consequence that
21、 the economy and currency remain vulnerable to fluctuations in world prices for metals, coal and agricultural goods. Opportunities ? The rapid expansion of Asian economies in recent years - notwithstanding the current global recession - offers new opportunities for diversifying trading ties from cor
22、e European markets. ? A low level of government debt has provided a certain amount of flexibility in fiscal policy to support domestic demand through the downturn. Threats ? The high level of private sector debt - especially mortgage loans - poses a threat to sustained growth. ? A collapse in export
23、s from a drop in resource demand from China would severely impact headline GDP growth. ? Australia is vulnerable to extreme weather that may lead to droughts and floods, which have become increasingly severe in past years as a result of global climate change. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Bus
24、iness Monitor International Ltd Page 9 Australia Business Environment Swot Strengths ? A highly educated workforce and comparatively modern transport infrastructure underpin economic prospects. ? A number of free trade agreements with countries such as New Zealand, Thailand and the US boost trading
25、activities. Weaknesses ? Despite its openness, Australia requires the Foreign Investment Review Board to approve any commercial real estate investment by a foreign company or individual valued at US$5mn or more. ? With a population of just over 22mn, the domestic consumer base is small by regional s
26、tandards. Opportunities ? Australia is currently in talks with China, Malaysia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Japan and South Korea regarding potential bilateral free trade agreements and it is also considering similar agreements with India. ? Upgrade and expansion of urban infrastructure will be ne
27、eded to sustain population growth in Australias main cities, providing opportunities for public-private partnerships in the future. Threats ? Corporate taxes for foreign investors in Australia remain higher than in other states, even as the government has promised to gradually reduce rates over the
28、medium term. ? Recent investment proposals by Chinese firms regarding the resource extraction sector have raised fears that strategic assets will be lost to foreign players. Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 10 Global Petrochemicals Overview Petrochemicals
29、Market Overview Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2015 (000 tonnes capacity) Country 2011e 2015f US 26,615 26,837 China 17,910 25,700 Saudi Arabia 15,220 16,520 South Korea 7,830 8,080 Japan 6,800 6,000 Germany 5,505 5,505 Iran 5,376 11,076 Canada 5,202 5,202 Thailand 4,425 4,425
30、 Taiwan 4,045 6,145 Netherlands 3,980 3,980 India 4,105 9,405 Brazil 3,700 3,700 France 3,135 3,135 Russia 3,620 5,300 United Kingdom 2,840 2,840 Singapore 3,790 3,790 Qatar 2,600 4,500 Belgium 2,540 2,540 UAE 2,000 3,500 Malaysia 1,740 1,740 Kuwait 1,700 1,700 Spain 1,645 1,645 Mexico 1,550 2,580 A
31、rgentina 700 700 Poland 700 760 South Africa 650 650 Hungary 660 660 Indonesia 620 1,000 Venezuela 600 1,900 Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 11 Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2015 (000 tonnes capacity) Country 2011e 2015f Ukraine 55
32、0 550 Czech Republic 595 595 Turkey 600 600 Australia 515 515 Bulgaria 450 450 Israel 450 450 Azerbaijan 370 370 Egypt 300 300 Nigeria 300 300 Central Asia 240 1,490 Slovakia 210 210 Romania 200 200 Algeria 130 1,230 Colombia 120 120 Chile 60 60 e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI The global petroc
33、hemicals market will be determined by four main factors going into 2012: the eurozone crisis, the slowdown in Chinese and US consumption growth, the impact of the March 2011 Japanese earthquake and the price of oil. Austerity measures in developed countries have led to decreased government spending,
34、 with many European governments abandoning their stimulus programmes. These cutbacks, particularly in crisis-hit Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, will lead to years of reduced demand. European petrochemicals demand was slowing in H211, but producers were confident that there was no danger of a c
35、rash in the market, with many believing that the region was going through a period of stabilisation following a peak in Q111. There is little direct evidence of demand destruction, but the macroeconomic forecasts for Europe and the US remain dismal and will be a drag on the market in 2012. Inventori
36、es had been reduced sufficiently by Q411 to prevent the kind of shock to the market that followed the 2008 financial crisis. This cautious approach should mitigate downside risks, but, as far as the petrochemicals market is concerned, Germany remains the focal interest. While the German economy repo
37、rted solid growth in 2011, this was largely on the basis of exports to China, with domestic growth Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 12 contributing little to the countrys growth story. This dependent relationship could upset petrochemicals growth going int
38、o 2012. Chinas rate of inflation, exacerbated by energy prices, is prompting the Chinese authorities to take steps to prevent economic overheating. The resulting restriction in demand will mean a more competitive environment in the Chinese market, with only the Middle East likely to benefit from fut
39、ure growth. If there is no sustained growth in the Chinese economy over 2012, the Middle Easts new capacity could prove a major threat, particularly as China is unlikely to cut back petrochemicals output, even if domestic demand is lacklustre. A possible property crash in China with the popping of t
40、he housing bubble could see a repeat of the US sub-prime boom but on a larger scale. This would lead to the inundation of cheap Middle Eastern petrochemicals on the global market, potentially leading to cracker closures in the developed world. An inventory overhang was already developing in China, w
41、ith the inventory cycle extending from 50 to 70-80 days in Q411 and any hit to the market will make it a very difficult competitive environment for many producers. The March 2011 Japanese earthquake disaster will continue its effects into 2012. As the worlds fifth- largest and Asias third-largest pr
42、oducer by basic chemicals capacity, Japans production problems in the wake of the disaster led to a sharp rise in the prices of petrochemicals products in Asia. Japans logistical infrastructure and electricity supply were severely affected by the disaster, with a direct effect on capacity utilisatio
43、n. Petrochemicals plants in Kashima, which was the epicentre of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake, were shut in the aftermath, hitting PX and PET production. By mid-2011, all steam crackers in eastern Japan had restarted, with Japanese ethylene output in August 2011 up 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 8.2%
44、month-on-month (m-o-m) to 612,400 tonnes, the first increase in two months. There were knock-on effects of supply-chain disruptions caused by the Japanese disaster, particularly co- polymer PP which is likely to remain disrupted for months to come. Several manufacturing plants in this region continu
45、e to be plagued with electricity problems. Latest government thinking suggests power rationing could be required over the summer, with companies forced to cut peak-hour usage by 20- 25%. Although the disaster creates more downside risk over the short-term, rebuilding efforts will boost chemical prod
46、uction over the medium-term. As we stressed, the differential between naphtha-based petrochemicals production and the more competitive ethane-based facilities that have emerged in the Middle East will come to the fore in 2012. Oil prices are likely to be driven up due to uncertainty, particularly am
47、id the eurozone crisis. Petrochemicals producers are likely to hedge against future cost rises by stocking up, but BMI believes that oil prices are unlikely to undergo a significant downward adjustment in 2012. At a time of depressed demand and falling product prices, margins will be squeezed and ma
48、ny plants could face at least temporary closure. Despite falls in Brent crude and naphtha prices in mid-2011, European producers have Australia Petrochemicals Report 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 13 not been able to gain as much advantage as they might due to the weak euro, which has
49、increased their costs as crude and naphtha trade in dollars. However, the mood going into 2012 is one of uncertainty, due to the eurozone crisis and its potential ongoing effects. Cracker and polymer output was at 80% capacity in Q411 and there was an expectation that this could be reduced in order to balance the market, particularly in Europe. Prices in Q411 were being reduced in line with a slackening in demand, although naphtha feedstock cost