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1、Published by BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL LTD BUSINESS FORECAST REPORT Q3 2012 AUSTRALIA INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECAST TO 2021 Staring Recession In The Face ISSN 1745-0470 Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. Copy Deadline: 11 May 2012 2 Business Monitor International L AUSTRALIA Q3 2012
2、AUSTRALIA MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS 2011e 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f Nominal GDP, US$bn 21,488.21,471.81,330.51,222.71,289.21,357.51,429.71,505.91,586.41,671.31,760.9 Nominal GDP, AUDbn 21,441.81,478.81,547.11,630.31,718.91,810.01,906.32,007.92,115.22,228.42,3
3、47.9 Nominal GDP, EURbn 21,070.71,140.91,064.4978.21,031.31,086.01,143.81,204.81,269.11,337.01,408.7 GDP per capita, US$ 266,65765,26758,42553,17055,52057,90460,39063,00265,74868,63571,669 GDP per capita, EUR 247,95450,59546,74042,53644,41646,32348,31250,40252,59954,90857,335 Real GDP growth, % chan
4、ge y-o-y 1,22.00.82.62.92.92.93.03.03.03.03.0 Private consumption, % of GDP 253.954.353.853.352.852.451.951.450.950.449.9 Private final consumption, AUD real growth % y-o-y 1,23.41.51.72.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.0 Government final consumption, % of GDP 217.417.817.717.717.717.717.817.817.817.817.8 Gover
5、nment final consumption, AUD real growth % y-o-y 1,21.82.82.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.03.0 Fixed capital formation, % Total GDP 226.826.926.826.626.927.227.527.828.028.328.6 Fixed capital formation, AUD real growth % y-o-y 1,26.91.02.02.54.04.04.04.04.04.04.0 Population, mn 322.622.923.223.523.824.124.42
6、4.725.025.225.5 Unemployment, % of labour force, eop 25.36.46.46.05.85.55.55.55.55.55.5 Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave 43.41.82.02.42.52.32.32.32.32.32.3 Lending rate, %, ave 58.27.07.58.28.99.49.49.49.49.49.4 Central Bank policy rate, % eop 44.253.003.504.255.005.505.505.505.505.505.50 Exchange rate
7、 AUD/US$, ave 60.971.111.161.331.331.331.331.331.331.331.33 Exchange rate AUD/EUR, ave 61.351.301.451.671.671.671.671.671.671.671.67 Budget balance, US$bn 7-49.4-35.5-23.1-17.0-14.9-10.0-5.5-3.9-2.2-0.41.4 Budget balance, % of GDP 7-3.3-2.4-1.7-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.00.1 Goods and services expor
8、ts, US$bn 8327.9318.4249.2262.9275.3288.4302.2314.1325.0335.0345.3 Goods and services imports, US$bn 8308.3287.2220.7230.6241.3252.5262.1272.2281.5289.9298.6 Balance of trade in goods and services, US$bn 819.631.228.432.434.035.940.141.943.645.146.7 Balance of trade in goods and services, % of GDP 8
9、1.32.12.12.62.62.62.82.82.72.72.7 Current account, US$bn 8-33.7-15.9-4.02.77.311.918.422.025.729.433.2 Current account, % of GDP 8-2.3-1.1-0.30.20.60.91.31.51.61.81.9 Foreign reserves ex gold, US$bn 842.838.541.344.146.949.752.555.358.160.963.8 Import cover, months g Sources: 2 ABS/BMI Calculation.
10、3 World Bank/UN/BMI; 4 RBA/BMI Calculation; 5 IMF; 6 BMI; 7 ABS/BMI calculation, adjusted to calendar-year basis; 8 ABS/BMI. 3 Business Monitor International L Contents Executive Summary . 5 Core Views .5 Major Forecast Changes .5 Key Risks To Outlook .5 Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7 SWOT Analysis
11、7 BMI Political Risk Ratings 7 Strained State-Federal Relations Could Spell Trouble For ALP 8 With its austere budget for FY2012/13 (July-June), the ruling Australian Labor Party (ALP) is attempting to shore up support from both the voters and foreign investors. But it could instead find itself in t
12、rouble with the states. Faced with reduced financial assistance, while fixed expenditures continue to rise, tensions between the state governments treasurers and federal treasurer, Wayne Swan, are likely increase and further strain relations. This is likely to increase the risk of political paralysi
13、s, and compromise the ALPs ability to implement policies going forward. As such, we have downgraded our ratings for Australias policy-making process, reducing the short- term political outlook from 85.6 to 84.8. TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW .8 Three Key Challenges: Population, Climate Change, China 10
14、The Australian political scene is expected to remain stable over the coming decade, although it will still face a number of key challenges. The most salient are managing population growth, climate change and relations with China. Chapter 2: Economic Outlook . 13 SWOT Analysis 13 BMI Economic Risk Ra
15、tings .13 Economic Activity .14 Staring Recession In The Face .14 Several indicators show that the Australian economy is entering into recession, in line with our long-held view that the economy is due for structural correction. We believe that more price declines are coming in the housing market, a
16、nd with business profitability on the decline, the unemployment rate is set to soar. As such, we maintain our forecast for 2012 real GDP growth of 0.8%, versus consensus estimates of 3.4%, and have downgraded our 2013 and 2014 forecast to 2.6% and 2.9% respectively, versus consensus forecasts of 3.3
17、% for both years. TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY .14 Fiscal Policy 17 Ambitious Budget Plan To Fall Short .17 Australias FY 2012/13 (June-July) budget will test the governments ability bring to fruition the fiscal restraint that it has planned in the face of slipping voter support and a weakening domestic
18、 economy. TABLE: FISCAL POLICY 17 Monetary Policy 19 Rate Cuts Give Little Cause For Cheer.19 The recent 50 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia reflects weakness in the Australian economy that we expect to continue. Although the rate cuts may provide some relief to mortgage owners, we d
19、o not expect the cut to lift credit demand or reverse the declines in house prices. With the absence of a recovery in business credit and a poor performance by the manufacturing in April, we believe that Australia is on its way into recession, in line with our forecast for 2012 growth to come in at
20、0.8%. TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 19 Balance Of Payments 20 Trade Deficit Cannot Be Maintained .20 Australias trade deficit continued to tread deeper into the red in March, as the goods balance dipped into negative territory. However, we do not expect this to continue as the households and business grow
21、more cautious and cut back on spending, and foreign investors withdraw financing amid a domestic recession. These factors should lead to a contraction in import growth, and we thus maintain our expectations for the goods and services surplus to come in at 2.1% of GDP in spite of continued export wea
22、kness. We also estimate the current account deficit to narrow to 1.1% in 2012 from 2.3% in 2011. AUSTRALIA CURRENT ACCOUNT .21 4 Business Monitor International L AUSTRALIA Q3 2012 Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23 The Australia Economy To 2021 23 Australias real GDP growth is expected to remain firm, a
23、veraging 2.7% in the 10-year period from 2011 to 2020. In particular, we believe exports and a renewed interest in skilled immigration will be key drivers in helping the economy return to its trendline growth of around 3.0% from 2014 onwards, following a slowdown in 2012-2013. TABLE: LONG-TERM MACRO
24、ECONOMIC FORECASTS .23 Chapter 4: Business Environment 27 SWOT Analysis 27 BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings .27 Business Environment Outlook .28 Institutions 28 TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS 28 Infrastructure 29 TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING .29 TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
25、.30 TABLE: ASIA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS 31 TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS 32 TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2002-2009 33 Operational Risk .34 Chapter 5: Key Sectors 35 Defence Minister for Foreign Affairs Kevin Rudd; Minister for Defense Stephen Smith; Minister for Finance and Deregulation Penny W
26、ong; Central Bank Governor Glenn Stevens. Main Political Parties (Seats won in Aug. 2010 elec- tions in brackets) Australian Labor Party (72): Centre-left, traditionally social-democratic. Founded in 1891. Led by Julia Gillard. Liberal Party (65): Centre-right, conservative. Founded in 1944. Led by
27、Tony Abbott. (Includes 21 seats from the Liberal National Party, an affiliated party in Queensland). National Party (6): Centre-right, conservative. Founded in 1920. Led by Warren Truss. Australian Greens (1): Environmentalist, liberal. Founded in 1992. Led by Bob Brown. Next ElectionParliamentary 2
28、013 Key Relations/TreatiesAustralia is a member of the UN, the British Commonwealth, the Australia, New Zealand, US Se- curity Treaty (ANZUS) and the Pacific Islands Forum. It has close relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and is also a US major non-NATO ally. BMI Short-Term Pol
29、itical Risk Rating84.8 BMI Structural Political Risk Rating83.0 Source: BMI 9 Business Monitor International L POLITICAL OUTLOOK standing as a whole, compared to our debt forecasts. Although the net worth of all six states is still positive, all six now owe a greater amount of debt than the financia
30、l assets they own (ie negative net financial worth), despite attempts to keep debt-to- state GDP levels stable. We thus believe that this budget will heighten tension between the states and federal governments, further straining relations with three states now under the op- position Liberal-National
31、 coalition. More Plans With Little Clarity = More Expenditure Overruns? Apart from the reduction in revenues, new schemes that the budget introduces like the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and Disability Support Pension will likely increase the fixed expenditures that the state governme
32、nts face, with little guarantee that federal support will not decline further. While these plans are still under discussion, the federal government has expressed its goal to fix state contributions in the plans despite little details on how these schemes are to operate. Moreover, the new NDIS plan r
33、aises the question of scalability and sustain- ability, given that the current budget of AUD1bn over the next four years is only slated to cover provide care for only around 5.0% of disabled persons in Australia. Given that the lack of clarity and detailed planning by the federal government has in p
34、art resulted in cost overruns and severe funding deficit in others schemes (eg education reform), we believe that state governments are likely to take a firmer stance during negotiations. With the federal governments cred- ibility weakening, we expect the balance of power tip further towards the sta
35、te governments, which is likely to hamper its policy formation ability in areas of shared responsibility (eg heath and education). ALP To Struggle With More Difficulties Ahead With more than a year left in office, we expect the ALP to face even greater difficulty in its policymaking process than in
36、recent months as recent scandals have further reduced its slim majority in parliament. Moreover, with the three most populous states under the opposition coalition, the policies from the federal government will likely be watered down and implementation of policies at state level will require even mo
37、re time and possibly concessions. In view of the deterioration of the ALPs policy- making ability, we have downgraded our short-term political outlook from 85.6 to 84.8. Given our poor outlook for the economy in 2012, we believe that the ALP could be risking its re-election chances with this budget
38、as voters may reject austerity when the economy sours, despite voters and investors singing a different tune for now. Should such a scenario materialise, the ALP will come under immense pressure and we expect them to eventually forgo the budget surplus, and allow the budget to plunge back into the r
39、ed, along with its credibility. Total Net Debt Likely To Rise, Regardless Of The Borrower Net Debt Owed By Various Level Of Government, AUDmn -100,000 -80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2
40、010 2011 Other Government Corporations State And Local Government Federal Government Total Government Borrowing Source: BMI, RBA Big States With Big Debts State Net Borrowing/Lending, % Of State GDP -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 201
41、0-11 New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania Source: BMI, Australian Bureau Of Statistics 10 Business Monitor International L AUSTRALIA Q3 2012 Long-Term Political Outlook Three Key Challenges: Population, Climate Change, China BMI VIEW The Australian political
42、 scene is expected to remain stable over the coming decade, although it will still face a number of key challenges. The most salient are managing population growth, climate change and relations with China. As a Western liberal democracy with a long history of political stability, Australia ranks com
43、fortably in the top decile in BMIs long-term political risk ratings, with an impressive score of 83.0 out of 100. This reflects Australias democratic system of government (which guarantees free and fair elections), stable society and broad policy continuity. That said, we highlight several key chall
44、enges facing Australian leaders in the coming decade and beyond. Managing Population Growth: The Australian Bureau of Statistics series B forecast for population growth (which reflects current trends in birth rates, life expectancy and migration) ex- pects the population to rise from 21mn in mid-200
45、7 to 35.5mn by 2056 an increase of 61%. Even series C, the lower case scenario, envisages the population rising by 47% from 2007 levels to 30.5mn. The high increase forecast (series A) sees a doubling of the population to 42.5mn by 2056. Given this rapid increase, Australias government must begin pl
46、anning for a bigger population, especially since this will place greater pressure on resources at a time when the authorities are committed to tackling climate change. There is already considerable debate within Australia about the desirability of a bigger population. Former prime minister Kevin Rud
47、d favoured population growth, while his successor Julia Gillard has sounded a more cautious note. Official forecasts expect New South Wales and Victoria to re- main the most populated regions in 2026 with 55.3% of the total population, down only slightly from 57.5% in mid-2007. In New South Wales, s
48、maller cities such as Newcastle and Wollongong will also expand. However, the fastest-growing states are ex- pected to be Queensland and Western Australia, with the former overtaking Victoria to become Australias second most populous state by 2050. Overall, these population dynamics mean that buildi
49、ng the necessary infrastructure roads, railways, homes, schools and hospitals will remain a key political objective. Immigration And Asylum Issues: The population debate is closely tied to immigration and asylum issues. As a wealthy country situated in a predominantly underdeveloped region, immigration (especially illegal immigration) has been a thorny issue f