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1、Enhanced ANN model for CalSim-II Application California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Asilomar Conference Center, California March 1 3, 2005 Shengjun Wu, P.E. California Department of Water Resources Why ANN is Used in CalSim-II ?CalSim-II has salinity standards in the Delta to be met Rock
2、Slough Jersey Point Emmaton ?DWR uses DSM2 to simulate the salinity in the Delta ?It is not practical to use DSM2 in CalSim-II due to time concern ?ANN is used to simulate the salinity at the above locations Full-Circle Analysis DSM2 Simulation ANN Calibration/Validation CalSim-II Simulation w/ANN D
3、SM2 Simulation Comparison of Results Full Circle Analysis at Rock Slough January 2002 ANN 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-90 Water Year EC DSM2 ECCalSim ANN ECEC Standard Full Circle Analysis at
4、Rock Slough January 2002 ANN y = 0.9354x + 68.55 R2 = 0.8343 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0200400600800100012001400160018002000 DSM2 EC Calsim EC Full Circle Analysis at Rock Slough (Jersey Point converted) January 2002 ANN 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 O
5、ct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-90 Water Year EC DSM2 ECCalSim ANN ECEC Standard Full Circle Analysis at Rock Slough (Jersey Point converted) January 2002 ANN y = 0.9324x + 62.599 R2 = 0.8953 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 020040060080
6、0100012001400160018002000 DSM2 EC Calsim EC Full Circle Analysis at Rock Slough 2005 ANN 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-90 Water Year EC DSM2 ECCalSim ANN ECEC Standard Full Circle Analysis at R
7、ock Slough 2005 ANN y = 0.9876x + 6.0983 R2 = 0.9725 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0200400600800100012001400160018002000 DSM2 EC Calsim EC Error Explanation ?Error between ANN and DSM2 ?Error due to the Difference in inflow pattern: ANN takes monthly inflows DSM2 takes smoothed mon
8、thly inflows at edges Motivation ?Improve the robustness of ANN ?Simplify CalSim-II Integration Presented in 2003 1 Sacramento River San Joaquin River East-Side Streams Yolo Bypass Banks/Tracy Pumping Plants North Bay Diversion Contra Costa PP#1 Sacramento -San Joaquin Delta Delta Cross Channel Gate
9、 Consumptive Use Salinity Stations 1. Emmaton 2. Jersey Point 3. Rock Slough CC PP#1 4. Collinsville 5. Chipps Island 6. Antioch 2 3 4 5 6 January 2002 ANN Setup ?4-Input ANN: North: Sac flow + Yolo + Eastside + Calaveras SJR flow. Exports: SWP + CVP + CCC + NB + Vallejo + net DICU Delta cross chann
10、el operation 2005 ANN Setup ?6-Input ANN North: Sac flow+ Yolo+ East flow + Calaveras - NB - Vallejo SJR flow. Exports: swp + cvp + ccc Delta cross channel operation San Francisco astronomical tide Net DICU Preliminary Conclusions ?Major improvement in all three stations with the SF tide as input. ?Significant improvement in Rock Slough with the net DICU as isolated input. Some improvement in other two stations. Future Work ?Continue tuning of ANN training ?Validating with other hydrologic scenarios ?Work with stakeholders and interested parties to select preferred model Questions?