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1、Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia China Utilities Periodical Utility/Alternative Energy Date 13 November 2012 Update on Harbin/coal price reform and imports/Trina/Zhongyu _ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated
2、. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict
3、of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012. Michael Tong, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6167
4、 Eric Cheng, CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6202 eric- Kai-Ting Wong CFA Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6235 kai- Companies Featured Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK),HKD50.15 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 19.7518.3314.50 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.611.59.4 Price/book (x) 1.41.41.3 China Resources Power (0836.HK)
5、,HKD15.96 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 18.3612.108.92 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.98.36.5 Price/book (x) 1.31.31.2 Longyuan Power (0916.HK),HKD5.10 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 16.510.08.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.97.97.5 Price/book (x) 1.51.11.0 Dongfang Electric (1072.HK),HKD13.16 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 14.8
6、7.87.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.02.31.3 Price/book (x) 2.81.31.1 Huaneng Power Intl (0902.HK),HKD6.18 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 39.5910.956.93 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.77.75.9 Price/book (x) 0.91.21.1 BEWG (0371.HK),HKD1.77 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 24.7914.0811.05 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.913.312.7 Price/book (x) 1.
7、81.41.3 Datang Renewable (1798.HK),HKD0.85 Buy 2011A 2012E 2013E P/E (x) 12.745.474.53 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.28.38.0 Price/book (x) 0.90.50.5 Recently published reports Harbin Electric Alert Rmb4.0bn new order from Genting Group; Buy Local media reported that Harbin Electric has signed a contract with th
8、e energy division of Genting Group to supply equipment for a 670MW thermal power project in Banten, Indonesia. Harbin Electric would also be responsible for the design, civil construction, installation and trial operation of the project. The total contract value of this Engineering-Procurement-Const
9、ruction (EPC) project exceeded Rmb4bn. China Resources Power Alert Fuel cost beat; utilization in line; coal output below Sector news China National Coal Association: steam coal double-track price system to be cancelled next year According to an internal source familiar with the matter (see page 2),
10、 the steam coal double-track price system will be cancelled next year. The NDRC has already completed the new plan for steam coal production and transportation, which will take effect beginning 1 January 2013. Chinas coal import volume for the first 10 months up 33.5% yoy According to the latest dat
11、a from the State General Administration of Customs, Chinas coal import volume for the first 10 months of 2012 increased by 33.5% yoy to 220m tons, while the average imported coal price decreased by 2.9% yoy to US$103.3/ton. Company news Zhongyu Gas third quarter net profit up 191% yoy Trina Solar cu
12、ts margins, shipment estimates MEMC may resume Italy polysilicon plant Coal price update Rmb/t 7-Nov-12 8-Nov-12 9-Nov-1212-Nov-12 Shanxi 5,800kCal 685 685 685685 Shanxi 5,500kCal 635 635 635635 Shanxi 5,000kCal 555 550 550545 See comps and share price analysis table on page 3. 13 November 2012 Util
13、ities Utility/Alternative Energy Page2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Sector news China National Coal Association: steam coal double-track price system to be cancelled next year (National Business Daily) According to an internal source familiar with the matter, the steam coal double-track price system w
14、ill be cancelled next year. The NDRC has already completed the new plan for steam coal production and transportation, which will take effect beginning 1 January 2013. The new plan marks the cancellation of the key contract coal system, encouraging both sides of coal and electricity to sign mid- to l
15、ong-term contracts. In addition, they will also negotiate with the Railway Department on railway capacity (based on last year). The above means the 20-year steam coal trading plan and double-track price system will be cancelled and instead, steam coal price will be settled by negotiations between th
16、e supply side and the demand side. The key contract coal supply annually will also be cancelled. Chinas coal import volume for the first 10 months up 33.5% yoy (CBN Newswire) According to the latest data from the State General Administration of Customs, Chinas coal import volume for the first 10 mon
17、ths of 2012 increased 33.5% yoy to 220m tons, while average imported coal price decreased by 2.9% yoy to US$103.3/ton. In the meantime, coal export volume decreased by 38.9% yoy to 8m tons, with an aggregated amount of US$1.4bn, down 42.7% yoy. Company news Zhongyu Gas third quarter net profit up 19
18、1% yoy (company announcement) Zhongyu Gas announced that as of 30 September 2012, its total revenue for the third quarter increased by 62% yoy to HK$612m, and net profit increased by 191% yoy to HK$32m. It attributes the significant growth to robust growth in sales of piped gas and connection revenu
19、e from gas pipeline construction, as well as the operation of CNG filling stations. Trina Solar cuts margins, shipment estimates (Reuters) Trina said on Monday that it now expects a gross margin of 0-1.5% for 3Q12, lower than its prior outlook of mid-single digits. The estimate includes the impact o
20、f a provision for writing down inventory and a reversal of prior provisions for anti-dumping and countervailing duties in the US. Trina said it expects solar module shipments in 3Q12 to be in the range of 375-385MW, below its previous forecast of 450-480MW. MEMC may resume Italian polysilicon plant
21、(SolarF) According to a source from the local labor union, MEMC executives will hold discussions with Italys Industry Minister Corrado Passera next week on the possibility of reducing the electricity cost from EUR95/MWh to EUR42/MWh for its Merano polysilicon plant. If the Italian government agrees
22、to lower the electricity cost, MEMC will be required to resume production within three months of passing the bill. MEMC announced it would idle the 6,000MT Merano plant last December as part of its restructuring plan. 13 November 2012 Utilities Utility/Alternative Energy Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong P
23、age3 Comps and share price analysis Figure 1: Comps Last Updated: 13 Nov 2012 08:10 Price % to Mkt. Cap. Absolute RelativeGearing Yield CompanyTickerPriceRatingtargettargetUS$m3m3m12F13F14F12F13F14F12F13F14F12F13F12F13F12F12F China IPPs Datang 0991.HKHK$2.72BuyHK$3.5029%4,524 2%-3%8.85.84.78.67.46.6
24、0.70.70.68.311.81.31.8331.84.0 CR Power 0836.HKHK$16.40BuyHK$24.5049%9,934 2%-3%12.18.97.48.36.55.41.31.21.111.814.33.84.7125.13.3 Huaneng 0902.HKHK$6.18BuyHK$8.6039%11,206 18%12%11.06.96.77.75.95.51.21.11.011.916.82.43.8247.24.6 Huadian 1071.HKHK$2.05BuyHK$3.5071%1,791 -13%-17%8.34.84.37.35.75.10.6
25、0.60.57.912.40.91.6381.43.0 CPI 2380.HKHK$2.09BuyHK$3.2556%1,377 -5%-9%7.75.95.99.17.26.70.60.60.58.210.11.72.2232.16.4 China Gas Towngas China 1083.HKHK$6.20HoldHK$5.20-16%1,968 8%3%19.917.115.217.814.012.41.51.41.38.09.24.35.227.71.0 BJ Enterprises 0392.HKHK$50.15BuyHK$60.0020%7,360 1%-4%18.314.51
26、1.311.59.47.61.41.31.28.410.04.04.816.11.7 ENN Energy 2688.HKHK$33.00BuyHK$32.40-2%4,541 14%9%18.616.915.110.09.18.13.32.92.519.619.75.45.847.81.3 China Gas 0384.HKHK$4.40HoldHK$3.00-32%2,474 2%-3%19.917.90.09.58.8NM1.81.7NM 11.011.23.24.261.71.1 Kunlun Energy 0135.HKHK$15.12BuyHK$15.201%15,660 20%1
27、5%19.816.413.68.26.35.02.72.42.216.015.76.46.74.41.5 CR Gas1193.HKHK$17.10SellHK$11.60-32%4,553 15%10%24.018.715.913.411.19.83.83.22.717.118.75.05.336.10.8 China Water Guangdong Inv. 0270.HKHK$6.19BuyHK$6.403%4,962 9%3%13.712.711.38.27.66.31.71.61.412.712.78.38.92.23.3 China EB Intl 0257.HKHK$3.80Ho
28、ldHK$4.108%1,791 -5%-10%16.311.99.811.410.09.12.01.71.516.615.67.77.044.01.6 BEWG0371.HKHK$1.77BuyHK$2.0013%1,564 15%9%14.111.19.213.312.711.91.41.31.210.312.13.43.777.42.1 China Power Equipment Dongfang Elect.1072.HKHK$13.16BuyHK$20.1053%3,402 -5%-10%7.97.36.72.31.40.51.31.11.018.016.53.23.3(60.5)1
29、.3 Shanghai Elect.2727.HKHK$3.11BuyHK$4.7051%5,145 -6%-10%9.08.17.21.81.10.61.00.90.811.711.93.33.4(63.0)3.3 Harbin Elect.1133.HKHK$6.22BuyHK$9.9059%1,105 -9%-14%4.64.33.9-0.6-1.0-1.40.60.50.513.312.62.82.7(56.7)3.4 China Solar GCL-Poly3800.HKHK$1.41HoldHK$1.20-15%2,816 14%9%NMNM20.611.311.37.01.11.
30、11.1(0.9)(2.4)(0.3)(0.7)96.9- China Wind Longyuan Power0916.HKHK$5.10BuyHK$8.3063%4,911 -1%-5%10.08.46.97.97.56.91.11.00.911.512.33.23.5146.72.0 Huaneng Renewables0958.HKHK$1.17BuyHK$1.9567%1,275 29%23%6.84.43.57.77.06.30.60.60.59.813.52.23.2188.62.2 Datang Renewable Power1798.HKHK$0.85BuyHK$1.5076%
31、798 8%3%5.54.53.68.38.07.40.50.50.49.710.81.61.8287.66.0 Goldwind2208.HKHK$3.09HoldHK$3.00-3%923 12%7%46.617.611.615.711.610.20.50.50.51.12.90.51.344.80.5 CHSTE0658.HKHK$2.60BuyHK$4.0054%497 6%1%7.65.34.55.74.94.40.40.40.45.47.32.33.272.23.3 Hong Kong CLP0002.HKHK$65.80BuyHK$69.506%20,424 -3%-8%16.1
32、14.913.58.57.77.21.91.81.710.812.34.14.974.93.9 HKG 0003.HKHK$19.98HoldHK$16.20-19%22,400 11%6%28.625.423.915.213.212.14.03.73.515.615.17.67.428.62.1 Power Assets0006.HKHK$66.50HoldHK$59.70-10%18,310 9%3%15.114.914.816.915.814.92.32.12.015.714.89.89.625.13.8 CKI 1038.HKHK$46.40HoldHK$47.001%14,304 -
33、3%-8%12.111.711.642.935.830.51.61.51.414.113.111.210.85.43.8 Average14.711.910.111.010.19.11.71.51.413.213.56.56.641.22.3 All estimates are DB estimates and all stock data is from Datastream Definitions: 1) Gearing is net debt / shareholders equity; 2) EV is after deducting estimated value of associ
34、ates; 3) RoCE is defined as EBIT x (1 - tax rate) divided by capital employed ROA Returns Buy Ticker: 1133.HK, Closing Price: 6.22 HKD, Target Price: 9.90 HKD, Recommendation: Buy Local media reported that Harbin Electric has signed a contract with the energy division of Genting Group to supply equi
35、pment for a 670MW thermal power project in Banten, Indonesia. Harbin Electric would also be responsible for the design, civil construction, installation and trial operation for the project. The total contract value of this Engineering-Procurement-Construction (EPC) project exceeded Rmb4bn. Click/ co
36、py this link into a browser to access the report: http:/pull.db- China Resources Power Alert Fuel cost beat; utilization in line; coal output below Ticker: 0836.HK, Closing Price: 15.96 HKD, Target Price: 24.50 HKD, Recommendation: Buy We held a discussion with CRP post the release of the Oct power
37、and coal production output. What surprised us was current spot coal price has already exceeded the contracted coal price, and CRP has re-priced some of its contracted coal downwards. Though coal output was below expectations, the declining unit fuel cost and rising utilization rate will make up for
38、the shortfall and CRP is on track to meet/beat expectations. CRP and Huaneng (0902.HK, HK$6.11, Buy) are our top sector picks given their coastal plant locations, which benefit more from sharper coal price decline and utilization recovery. Click/ copy this link into a browser to access the report: h
39、ttp:/pull.db- BEWG Alert Key takeaways from European non-deal roadshow Ticker: 0371.HK, Closing Price: 1.82 HKD, Target Price: 2.00 HKD, Recommendation: Buy We hosted an NDR for Beijing Enterprises Water (BEWG) from 29 October to 2 November in Europe. During the event, Mr. Hu Xiaoyong, CEO, and Mr.
40、Eric Tung, CFO, presented an optimistic sector outlook and expect the company to gain market share. Investors feedback was generally positive, as they like the thematic story. However, this stock remains largely unowned/underweight among the environmental funds likely due to its rather complicated b
41、usiness model and accounting recognition for concession projects. Click/ copy this link into a browser to access the report: http:/pull.db- Utilities Alert Huaneng/Huadian to benefit most from lower 2013E coal price Deutsche Bank lowers 2013/2014 coal price by 3% to RMB640/t Deutsche Banks coal anal
42、yst, James Kan, has lowered his 2013 and 2014 average QHD benchmark coal price forecast by 3% from RMB660/t to RMB640/t (see report China Coal Sector: QHD price falls in peak season; sector underperformance inevitable; Published by Michael Tong on 12-Nov-12 Published by Michael Tong on 11-Nov-12 Pub
43、lished by Kai Ting Wong on 7-Nov-12 Published by Michael Tong on 6-Nov-12 13 November 2012 Utilities Utility/Alternative Energy Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page5 http:/pull.db- D5D5/3679624/0900b8c085f07e0e.pdf). He believes the RMB15/t WoW coal price decline amid the traditional peak coal demand sea
44、son is an early indication of the oversupply situation that will continue into 2013/2014. In the last three years, average annual FAI growth in the coal industry was 25-30% and the production resumption by small mines after the recent halt could lead to oversupply in 2013. For 2013, we expect a 7.9%
45、 growth in Chinas thermal coal supply vs. 6.1% growth in thermal coal demand, after factoring in 8.2% GDP growth, 8.6% power consumption growth and 1% YoY hydro power production growth. Thus, even after incorporating lower hydro power utilization in 2013, James still sees an oversupply scenario in 2
46、013. Click/ copy this link into a browser to access the report: http:/pull.db- Longyuan Power Alert - 3Q NP +36% yoy; results in line; RMB400mn tariff premium received Ticker: 0916.HK, Closing Price: 5.08 HKD, Target Price: 8.30 HKD, Recommendation: Buy 3Q12 net profit +36% yoy; 1-9M12 +7% yoy; 4Q12
47、E to increase 420% QoQ Longyuans 3Q12 net profit increased by 36% yoy to RMB258mn, driven by increase wind power generation, higher wind utilization (DBe: +4%) and lower coal price. Given 3Q is usually the low wind season, net profit tends to be lowest during the quarter. Thus, net profit was down 7
48、1% on a QoQ basis vs. -73% in 3Q11. In 1-9M12, net profit was up 7% yoy to RMB1.7bn and accounts for 56%/60% of DB/consensus FY12 est. vs. 60% in FY11. The result is in line with our estimates, and we expect 4Q to improve 420% (vs. 4Q11 of 451%) as we enter the peak wind season. Working capital should also improve with the collection of ta