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1、1,Global oil and gas,transactions review 2011,2011 Europe, Middle East, India and Africa,tax policy outlook,Welcome to Ernst in 2011, uncertain economic and capital markets background, 2012 transaction of 2011, Kinder Morgans US$38b acquisition of El Paso, was broadly comparable to last years larges
2、t deal, Petrobrass US$42.5b equity transaction.,Source: IHS Herold Inc (unless otherwise stated).,Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,2,Contents,1. 2. 3. 4.,Upstream Downstream/midstream Oilfield services Regional roundup Africa Australia Canada CIS Europe Far East India United States Global
3、 oil and gas transactions review 2011,03 09 13 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26,Numberofdeals,Announcedvalue(US$billion),3,Upstream,Last year was marked by global turbulence, with political change, economic upheaval and natural disaster all playing a major part. Clarity has been hard to come by, yet it is
4、 clear that security of energy supply and reliance on the oil and gas sector are undiminished. This is reflected in oil prices that have remained robust despite an uncertain economic outlook and an upstream M and with fewer topend deals, total value was down 65%. The decline in transaction activity
5、was widespread, with only the US, Europe, the CIS, Africa and India witnessing an increase in transaction volume on 2010 data. European transaction activity was up 42%, with over half of the 108 transactions involving assets in the North Sea evidence of the resurging interest in the region.,600 400
6、200,610,779,758,Figure 5. Number of upstream deals by region 500 450,432,0,2009,2010,2011,400 350,390,Source: IHS Herold Inc,Assets,Corporate,300 250 200,186,Figure 4. Total upstream deal value by type 300.0 250.0 200.0,150 100 50 36 38 0 Africa Asia Source: IHS Herold Inc,124 76 58 47 Australia Can
7、ada Europe 2010,55 CIS 2011,64 58 27 14 United South Middle States America East,17 20 Other,150.0,100.0,110.2,170.1,68.9,Figure 6. Total upstream deal value by region,50.0 0.0,53.4 2009,2010,85.9 2011,90.0 80.0 70.0,77.276.0 66.4,Source: IHS Herold Inc,Assets,Corporate,60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0,37.3,20.0
8、10.0 6.8 6.4 9.310.8 9.7 6.17.4 0.0 Africa Asia Australia Canada Europe,2010,17.6 16.9 CIS 2011,12.2 0.93.0 United South Middle States America East,10.3 4.9 Other,Source: IHS Herold Inc Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,6,An unconventional era The booming unconventional sector has drawn he
9、adlines around the world. Shale gas now accounts for about 30% of US gas production, and it has been estimated that there are sufficient recoverable reserves to meet gas demands for 100 years. As a result, the US gas market has had a staggering shift in outlook from net gas importer to net gas expor
10、ter. The year 2011 continued where 2010 left off, with a wave of large transactions, as large independents, NOCs and private equity firms look to snap up opportunities so much so that the US$66b spent on shalerelated transactions in the year accounted for just under half of the value of all announce
11、d upstream transactions globally. Shale gas dominated the larger transactions, claiming the largest reported deal of the year BHP Billitons acquisition of Petrohawk Energy for US$15b as well as four other top 10 transactions by value. BHP Billitons acquisition further cements its interest in the spa
12、ce after its US$4.8b acquisition of Chesapeake Energys Fayette shale assets earlier in the year. Marathon Oils acquisition of Hilcorp Resources Eagle Ford shale properties for US$3.5b and Noble Energys purchase of 50% of Consol Energys undeveloped Marcellus shale acreage for US$3.1b are further evid
13、ence of the scale of investment in the this prospective resource base. Amid its other acquisitions, Statoil announced a US$4.8b major tight oil/ shale oil acquisition of Brigham Energy. Canadian shale prospects have also attracted significant interest. Sinopecs US$2.9b acquisition of Daylight Energy
14、, for example, provides access to Duvernay and Cardium shale acreage. Environmental and political turbulence surrounds this North American game changer, which has seen New York State impose a moratorium on fracking activity and shale development concerns leveraged as a political tool. On the other s
15、ide of the Atlantic, the potential of European shale remains to be proven, but environmental concerns are also in play, with France becoming the first country to impose a ban on hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and oil projects. Development in Poland, reportedly Europes largest shale resource holde
16、r, remains some way behind the US; and with the largest of the five recorded transactions in Polish shales being San Leon Energys acquisition of Realm Energy for US$91m, M WestNet Infrastructure Group Pty Ltd Ineos Group Holdings Plc Royal Dutch Shell Plc,Nature of asset Specialty chemicals Natural
17、gas distribution in China Specialty chemicals Propane distribution Two refineries in Wyoming and Kansas Natural gas distribution in France Natural gas distribution in Italy Natural gas distribution in Australia Grangemouth refinery Downstream business in Africa,Value US$m 8,941 3,203 3,200 2,871 2,7
18、49 1,589 1,129 1,102 1,015 1,000,Source: IHS Herold Inc Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,Numberofdeals,Dealvalue(US$billion),10,Similar to 2010, the volume of asset transactions exceeded those that were corporate in nature. There were 66 announced asset transactions with a disclosed value
19、 of US$13b, compared with 37 corporate transactions with a disclosed value of US$25b. Figure 9. Number of downstream deals by type 160,Nearly 48% of downstream transactions volumes were in North America, with Europe and Asia together accounting for a further 24% of volume. This is indicative of the
20、changing ownership landscape, particularly in more mature markets.,140 120 100 80 60,33 113,43,37,40 20,79,66,0,2009,2010 Assets,Corporate,2011,Source: IHS Herold Inc Figure 10. Value of downstream deals by type 45.0 40.0 35.0,30.0 25.0,12.4,26.7,25.2,20.0 15.0,10.0 5.0,18.4,13.4,12.5,0.0,2009,2010
21、Assets,Corporate,2011,Source: IHS Herold Inc Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,11,Resurgence in US and European refining transactions There were 18 transactions involving refineries during 2011, of which 14 involved refineries in North America and Europe. The largest refining transaction i
22、n terms of disclosed deal size is HollyFrontier Corporations acquisition of Frontier Oil Corporations refineries in Cheyenne Wyoming and El Dorado Kansas for US$2.7b. In Europe, assets changing hands include Grangemouth and Lavera (bought by PetroChina), Pembroke (Valero), Stanlow (Essar Oil) and Wi
23、lhelmshaven (Hestya Energy). During 2011, oil demand in North America and Europe is forecast to decline by approximately 190 kbd and 230 kbd, respectively. Thus, refining overcapacity continues to be a significant issue, one which has yet to be properly addressed. However, inland refiners in the US
24、have benefited tremendously from the discounted WTI and hence margins have improved from the previous year. On average, WTI has historically traded at a US$1-US$2 premium over the other main lightsweet benchmark crude oil, UK Brent (with that premium roughly representing the transportation different
25、ial). Over the last year, the differential has become particularly volatile due to the loss of Libyan production (which is of similar quality to Brent) and as Cushing crude oil stocks have stayed relatively high. However, more recently, as midcontinent domestic crude oil production increased and at
26、the same time Canadian supplies into the region increased, crude oil essentially “backedup” in the region, dampening prices both for local crudes, such as WTI, and for Canadian imports. In Europe, refining overcapacity continues to restrict growth in margins and utilization. Furthermore, competition
27、 from additional refining capacity (particularly in Asia and the Middle East) and compliance with increasingly stringent environmental and product quality legislations have exacerbated the pressure on margins. IOCs and independent refiners in North America and Europe are looking to rebalance their r
28、efining portfolios through one or a combination of the following: Divestment of noncore refining assets Partial shutdowns of key refineries Full shutdowns of less complex sites and conversion to storage terminals to defer expensive remediation and cleanup cost Postponing new refining capacity and up
29、grading projects,On the other hand, refiners in emerging markets are benefiting from growing regional product demand and are therefore building new capacity. In AsiaPacific and the Middle East, additional refining capacity coming online between 2011 and 2015 is forecast to be approximately 5 mbd. Du
30、e to their advantaged configuration and scale, lowcost crude and less stringent environmental regulations, there is a possibility that these refiners will be looking to export into North America and Europe. Refining divestments set to continue in 2012 In 2012, we expect that the major integrated oil
31、 companies as well as independent refiners will continue to divest their noncore North American and European refining assets, as refining margins will remain under pressure. There is likely to be interest from various groups of buyers, especially those from Asia and the former Soviet Union (FSU) wit
32、h equity crude, for the relatively complex refining assets. Given the number of refineries that are on the market and the current low margin environment, buyers currently benefit from negotiation strength and suppressed valuations. On the other hand, interest for relatively simple refineries would d
33、epend on whether they could be converted into storage facilities. Strong demand for retail marketing assets There were 22 transactions during 2011 involving retail marketing assets, with North America and Europe accounting for half of these transactions. The largest retail marketing transaction in t
34、erms of disclosed deal size is Vitol and Helios Investment Partners acquisition of Shells downstream businesses in 14 African countries for US$1.0b. Major integrated oil companies continued with their divestment plans to exit from mature retail markets where they do not have the necessary economies
35、of scale to generate the required return on capital and where perhaps they lack an integrated refining position. This is predominantly driven by: Strategic focus on upstream in part due to the higher level of returns but also because integrated oil companies are judged on their ability to replenish
36、reserves. Hence capital expenditure is weighted toward E better servicing ever increasing contract sizes; developing economies of scale; and achieving better negotiating positions with their customers. In addition, potential consolidation among the oil majors (driven by increased pressure from NOCs)
37、 could accelerate consolidation among oil services companies. Lowcost country competition should also encourage consolidation for those seeing to maintain their leadership positions. Most larger oilfield services companies are strongly cash generative with strong balance sheets and good credit ratin
38、gs, so financing deals should not be too problematic. 2011 Transactions The value of announced transactions in oilfield services in 2011 was US$37b, 15% higher than in 2010. However, there was an increase of almost 64% in the number of deals in 2011 (177 announced deals) compared to 2010 (108 announ
39、ced deals). The graphs below illustrate the spread of deals by subsector as well as geography, with the majority of large deals in the Drillers/ Drilling Rigs and Production Well Services subsectors, dominated by the United States and globally diversified players.,14,Figure 11. OFS deals by subsecto
40、r 2011,9.6%,6.8%,12.4%,16.4%,Diversied Drillers Geophysical,7.3%,13.6%,Manufacturers Miscellaneous Offshore services,20.3%,13.6%,Production/well services Tool rental,Source: IHS Herold Inc Figure 12. OFS value by subsector 2011,6.1%,12.4%,Diversied,25.2% 6.7%,35.6%,Drillers Geophysical Manufacturers
41、 Miscellaneous Offshore services Production/well services Tool rental,0.8%,10.2%,2.9%,Source: IHS Herold Inc Global oil and gas transactions review 2011,29.9%,34.5%,4.0%,3.4%,1.1%,1,15,This shows that internationally diverse companies have been pursuing a wide geographic footprint. Figure 13. Oilfie
42、ld services deals by region 2011 US Canada Other North America South America Europe Africa CIS Middle East 9.6% Australia/Oceania Other Asia 4.0% 7.3% Global diversied 3.4% 1.1% 1.7% Source: IHS Herold Inc Top 10 deals announced during 2011, where values were disclosed Announced Target Buyer Transac
43、tion date value US$m 07/02/2011 Pride International Inc. Ensco plc 8,704 19/04/2011 Frac Tech Holdings Consortium led 3,500 LLC, Frac Tech by Temasek Services LLC Holdings Pte Ltd 14/02/2011 Wood Group Well General Electric 2,800 Support Division Company 09/10/2011 Complete Production Superior Energ
44、y 2,756 Services Inc Services,Flagship deals in 2011 included: The merger agreement between Ensco and Pride International announced in February (completed in May), in a cash and share transaction, had an implied offer price representing a premium of 21% to Prides closing share price on 4 February 20
45、11. The transaction created the worlds secondlargest offshore driller, and the combined company has more active jackup rigs than any other driller. In April, Frac Tech, a Texasbased provider of oil and natural gas well stimulation services with expertise in highpressure hydraulic fracturing and oper
46、ations across the United States, agreed to sell 70% of the company to a consortium led by Temasek Holdings Pte for about US$3.5b.1 The remaining 30% is owned by Chesapeake Energy Corporation, which has announced it will be looking to divest its oilfield services assets in 2012. This is further evide
47、nce of trade buyers from the East seeking to expand internationally and also acquire new technologies. The enormous opportunities offered by fracturing were again demonstrated by the Weir Group acquisition of Seaboard Holdings for US$675m in November 2011. In February, GEs Oil with 2011 barely weeks
48、 old came the start of the Arab Spring throwing longstanding regimes into turmoil and uncertainty. Oil prices rocketed due to the effect on Libyan supply, and the resulting ongoing realignment of corporate and political allies further impacted the region. It would be easy to assume the shock waves o
49、f this would have negatively affected transaction levels, however African transaction volumes and values have remained healthy. A total of 65 African oil and gas transactions were reported in 2011, up from 59 in the previous year. The value of transactions in the year increased to US$7.4b from US$7.
50、1b in 2010, possibly as a result of higher oil prices. Transactions continue to be primarily asset rather than corporate, with only 14 corporate deals occurring in 2011. Upstream investments continued to be the focus, contributing 61 of the 65 deals, with only two deals in each of oilfield services