《Greece Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Greece Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012.pdf（86页珍藏版）》请在三一文库上搜索。
1、Q2 2012 pharmaceuticals -12.0% in local currency terms and -18.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised down from Q112 due to new industry factors. ? Healthcare: EUR22.01bn (US$30.60bn) in 2011 to EUR20.95bn (US$27.03bn) in 2012; -4.8% in local currency terms and -11.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast
2、lowered from Q112 due to industry factors and revised historic data ? Medical devices: EUR911mn (US$1.27bn) in 2011 to EUR870mn (US$1.12bn) in 2012; -4.5% in local currency terms and -11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast moderately down since Q112 due to healthcare sector and economic factors. Risk/Re
3、ward Rating: For Q212, Greeces Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) has declined by 1.2% to 58, ranking it fourth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) but well below its historical leading position, on the back of a new downgrade of the country risks score, with reductions to our assessment of the
4、 structural balances of the economy and the rating on policy continuity. While the market continues to benefit from high per capita expenditure on medicines compared with less developed CEE states, which benefits the overall industry rewards score, the Greek economy will remain in depression in 2012
5、 as deep fiscal retrenchment and internal devaluation take a damaging toll. Key Trends And Developments ? The year started with fresh targets for public drug expenditure cuts and the introduction of the positive reimbursement list. On February 2 2012, Greek Minister of Health Andreas Loverdos announ
6、ced public pharmaceutical expenditure will be set to just EUR2.88bn (US$3.75bn) in 2012. He also said public pharmaceutical expenditure in 2011 was EUR4.1bn (US$5.35bn), exceeding the budget target of EUR3.8bn (US$4.96bn). Greece Pharmaceuticals rapid generic drug substitution; out-of-control hospit
7、al debt; extensive payment delays; drug shortages; and the reintroduction of a money-saving positive reimbursement list are a few of obstacles faced by drugmakers operating in the market. Since May 2010, Greece has been quick and severe with measures to cut public pharmaceutical expenditure. However
8、, BMI believes the government must enforce structural changes in the healthcare system if it is to maintain continued savings. There are no more easy savings to be had. Further price cuts would endanger the supply of medicines to the market and BMI believes this could only be justified in the case o
9、f a further severe economic event, such as like an exit from the euro. Short-term cuts in Greeces healthcare system have primarily been achieved from various drug policy reforms. The most successful in terms of cost savings has been the introduction of drug price cuts, rapid generic drug substitutio
10、n and changes to which drugs get reimbursed by the state, as well as operational measures such as the introduction of e-prescription systems designed to bring efficiency to the control, Pharmaceutical Market By Sub-Sector (US$bn) 2011 Source: IMS Health, The Association of the European Self- Medicat
11、ion Industry (AESGP), BMI Greece Pharmaceuticals diminishing contributions from the public sector; and European-wide, austerity- driven cost-containment measures, combined with high levels of debt among wholesalers, hospitals, state health insurers and reimbursement funds, have all resulted in a par
12、ticularly difficult operating environment for drugmakers and distributors in Europe. Below, we consider the strategies these firms can adopt to avoid the full impact of austerity on the continent, where government price controls and regulated consumption restrict the use of the more normal demand-si
13、de marketing. Defence Against European Austerity: Short-Term ? Regularly clear and repatriate funds in bank accounts in troubled markets, avoiding the risk of currency devaluation. ? Cash on delivery wherever possible to avoid further accumulation of unwanted credit lines to distributors. ? Sell thr
14、ough pharmacies rather than hospitals. The retail sector is less indebted than hospitals, so it has better cash flow and easier to collect debts. ? Direct-to-pharmacy distribution, thereby avoiding cash-strapped wholesalers that have their own liquidity problems. ? Direct-to-consumer distribution th
15、rough the mail, when possible, will ensure regular payments and improve patient retention, potentially with preferable selling terms. ? Incentivise sales representatives towards cash-based deals rather than larger purchases that have to be based on credit that may not be received. ? Renegotiate sell
16、ing conditions with wholesalers and retailers that have not met debt repayment terms, accepting slower but realistic repayments that can be compensated with preferable selling terms, ie: better prices or exclusivity deals. ? Reduce inventories in troubled markets. Less stock means less cost and less
17、 risk. ? Factoring: selling accounts receivable (unpaid invoices) to a third party at a discount will improve short-term cash flow but at a price. Greece Pharmaceuticals rapid generic drug substitution; out of control hospital debt; extensive payment delays; drug shortages; and the introduction of a
18、 money-saving positive reimbursement list are a few of obstacles faced by drugmakers operating in the market. Between 2005 and 2009, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Greeces pharmaceutical market was 11.5% in local currency terms, which made Greece one of the most dynamic markets in CEE. Ho
19、wever, following contractions of 10.6% in 2010 and 6.6% in 2011 Greece now has the most challenging business environment for pharmaceutical companies operating in Europe. In February, Greek Minister of Health Andreas Loverdos announced that public pharmaceutical expenditure will be set to just EUR2.
20、88bn (US$3.75bn) in 2012. Speaking during a meeting with the pharmaceutical industry and medical representatives, the minister said he had intended state pharmaceutical expenditure to be around EUR3.10bn (US$4.04bn) in 2012, but following a compromise with the troika the lower figure was decided. He
21、 also said public pharmaceutical expenditure in 2011 was EUR4.1bn (US$5.35bn), exceeding the budget target of EUR3.8bn (US$4.96bn). Loverdos said monthly budgets will not exceed EUR240mn (US$313mn) in 2012 and if this figure is surpassed there will be strict corrective measures. However, Greeces fai
22、lure to aggressively cut public pharmaceutical expenditure in 2011 means these savings will have to be achieved in 2012, placing additional pressure on the already overburdened industry. At the start of March 2012, new cost-containment legislation was adopted that contained details of fresh and puni
23、tive measures for drugmakers operating in the country (see Pricing Regime and Reimbursement Regime for more details). The legislation is designed to ensure that government keeps to its public pharmaceutical expenditure targets in 2012 which is included in our forecast scenario. Pharmaceutical Market
24、 Forecast 2007-2021 f = BMI forecast, CER = constant exchange rate. Source: IMS Health, AESGP, BMI Greece Pharmaceuticals however, the price cuts in Greece would likely result in a strategic shift in traders activities back towards Greece. This could have particularly negative consequences for euroz
25、one pharmaceutical markets, which account for the majority of pharmaceutical spending in Europe. Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 2007-2016 (US$mn) f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade Database DESA/UNSD, BMI Greece Pharmaceuticals others are promoted under international agreements. The companys produ
26、cts cover most therapeutic classes. Financial Performance Net sales dipped to EUR322mn in 2010, down from EUR377mn in 2009. The firm grew strongly between 2000 and 2009. Contact Details ? Address: Vianex, Tatoiou St, 18th km Athens Lamia National Road 146, 71 Nea Erythrea, Greece ? Tel: +30 210 800
27、9111 ? Website: www.vianex.gr Greece Pharmaceuticals hospitals; nutritionals; and diagnostics. It is among the 50 largest companies in Greece. In January 2009, Abbott launched a new molecular real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test for the human papillomavirus (HPV) in Europe. Cont
28、act Details ? Address: Abbott Laboratories Hellas SA, 512 Vouliagmenis Avenue, Alimos 174 56, Greece ? Tel: +30 210 998 5222 ? Website: Greece Pharmaceuticals or by private entities such as non-profit institutions, commercial insurances and households acting as complementary funders to the previous
29、ly cited institutions or unilaterally disbursing health commodities. The revenue base of these entities varies by country and comprises multiple sources. The inclusion of this in BMI Greece Pharmaceuticals pharmaceutical trade associations; company press releases and annual reports; subscription inf
30、ormation providers; local news sources; information from market research firms that is in the public domain. ? Data that has been validated by BMIs pharmaceutical and healthcare analysts using a composite approach, which scores data sources by reliability in order to ensure accuracy and consistency
31、of historic data. ? Five key macroeconomic and demographic variables, which have been demonstrated, through regression analysis, to have the greatest influence on the pharmaceutical market. These have been forecast by BMIs Country Risk analysts using an in-house econometric model. ? The burden of di
32、sease in a country. This is forecast in DALYs using BMIs BoDD, which is based on the WOs burden of disease projections and incorporates World Bank and IMF data. ? Subjective input and validation by BMIs pharmaceutical and healthcare analysts to take into account key events that have affected the pha
33、rmaceutical market in the recent past or that are expected to have an impact on the countrys pharmaceutical market over the next five years. These may include policy/reimbursement decisions, new product launches or increased competition from generic drugs. Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
34、Q2 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 83 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology BMIs approach in assessing the risk/reward balance for Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry investors globally is fourfold. First, we identify factors (in terms of current industry/country trends and f
35、orecast industry/country growth) representing opportunities to would-be investors. Second, we identify country and industry-specific traits which pose or could pose operational risks to would-be investors. Third, we attempt, where possible, to identify objective indicators that may serve as proxies
36、for issues/trends to avoid subjectivity. Finally, we use BMIs proprietary Country Risk Ratings (CRR), ensuring that only the aspects most relevant to the Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Industry are incorporated. Overall, the system offers an industry-leading, comparative insight into the opportunities
37、and risks for companies across the globe. Ratings Overview Ratings System Conceptually, the ratings system divides into two distinct areas: Rewards: Evaluation of the sectors size and growth potential in each state, as well as broader industry/state characteristics that may inhibit its development.
38、Risks: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from a states political/economic profile that call into question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. Indicators The following indicators have been used. Overall, the ratings use three s
39、ubjectively measured indicators and 41 separate indicators/datasets. Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 84 Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators Indicator Rationale Rewards Industry Rewards Market expenditure, US$bn Denotes brea
40、dth of pharmaceutical market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones Market expenditure per capita, US$ Denotes depth of pharmaceutical market. High value markets score better than low value ones Sector value growth, % y-o-y Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over f
41、ive-year forecast period Country Rewards Urban-rural split Urbanisation is used as a proxy for development of medical facilities. Predominantly rural states score lower Pensionable population, % of total Proportion of the population over 65. States with ageing populations tend to have higher per cap
42、ita expenditure Population growth, 2003-2016 Fast-growing states suggest better long-term trend growth for all industries Overall score for Country Structure is also affected by the coverage of the power transmission network across the state Risks Industry Risks Intellectual property (IP) laws Marke
43、ts with fair and enforced IP regulations score higher than those with endemic counterfeiting Policy/reimbursements Markets with full and equitable access to modern medicines score higher than those with minimal state support Approvals process High scores awarded to markets with a swift appraisal sys
44、tem. Those that are weighted in favour of local industry or are corrupt score lower Country Risks Economic structure Rating from CRR evaluates the structural balance of the economy, noting issues such as reliance on single sectors for exports/growth, and past economic volatility Policy continuity Ra
45、ting from CRR evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of government policy Bureaucracy Rating from CRR denotes ease of conducting business in the state Legal framework Rating from CRR denotes the strength of legal institutions in each state. Security of investment can be a key ri
46、sk in some emerging markets Corruption Rating from CRR denotes the risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business operations affecting companies ability to compete Source: BMI Greece Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2012 Business Monitor International Ltd Page 85
47、 Weighting Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be inappropriate to give all sub-components equal weight. Consequently, the following weight has been adopted. Table: Weighting Of Components Component Weighting Rewards 60% Industry Rewards 75% Country Rewards 25% Risks 40% Industry Risks 60% Country Risks 40% Source: BMI Sources Sources used include national industry associations, government ministries, global health organisations, officially released pharmaceutical company results and international and national news agencies.